Warren Buffett

"He lies like a finance minister on the eve of devaluation."

-- Warren Buffett

Talk about hedge fund volatility

Peloton Partners LLP, the London- based hedge-fund firm run by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partners, is liquidating its ABS Fund after ``severe'' losses on mortgage-backed debt and demands from banks to repay loans.

Peloton, founded by Ron Beller and Geoff Grant in 2005, is seeking buyers for the $1.8 billion fund's assets, according to a letter sent today to investors. Firms including Citadel Investment Group LLC and GLG Partners Inc. have made bids, two people familiar with the situation said.

The fund's demise after an 87 percent gain last year highlights the severity of the U.S. subprime-mortgage collapse, which has spread to AAA-rated securities and triggered bank margin calls. Boston-based Sowood Capital Management LP shut down last year after losing $1.5 billion. Two funds managed by New York-based Bear Stearns Cos. filed for bankruptcy.

Falling Slowly wins Oscar

We saw "Once" as soon as it was released and as we came out of the theatre I said to Toni that we may have seen the Oscar song winner in that movie. I really like the song. It's a curiously composed piece.

I didn't know anything about the exclusion of the song from eligibility or other issues facing other films music, like Eddie Vedder's music from "Into the Wild" or the music from "There Will Be Blood". read more at this link . . . very interesting

quote by Francis Bacon

It is a sad fate that a man is too well known to everybody else and still unknown to himself.

Collapse of the Auction Rate Bond Market

While this is still a developing story, check out the extent to which the market has collapsed . . . .

From 1984 through 2006, only 13 auctions failed, typically because of changes in the credit of the borrower, according to Moody's Investors Service. There were 31 failures in the second half of 2007, and 32 during a two-week period beginning in January.

The average rate for seven-day municipal auction bonds rose to a record 6.59 percent on Feb. 13 from 4.03 percent the previous week, according to indexes compiled by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Sand into Oil

from Bloomberg Markets, I found this . . . . 

. . . .  at Fort McMurray's pit mines, it takes 2 tons of sand, 250 gallons (947 liters) of water and 1,400 cubic feet (39.6 cubic meters) of natural gas to produce one barrel of synthetic crude, says Peter Wells, director of research firm Neftex Petroleum Consultants Ltd. in Abingdon, England. That's enough water for a day's use for a U.S. family of four and enough natural gas for 5.6 days. The gas is burned to power a process that extracts a tarry substance called bitumen from the sand and then refines it into synthetic crude.

In turn, each barrel generates as much as 110 kilograms (240 pounds) of carbon dioxide equivalents, the same as refining three barrels of traditional light crude.

"When you're schlepping around two tons of sand for a barrel of crude, it shows that conventional oil is already well into depletion," says Jeffrey Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets Inc. in Toronto. "Price will ultimately ration demand. People won't be able to afford to drive."

Two new songs on my website

Go to www.craigkincaid.com and click on the Kincaid Music link, then click on either C P R R or Sarah Hear My Plea on the top bar to listen to the latest songs I've written.
C P R R was inspired by Stephen Ambrose's book "Nothing Like It So Far" about the building of the Transcontinental Railroad. Sarah Hear My Plea is a song about the things I won't, can't, never do in this crazy world.

Warren Buffet on the subprime mess

"It's sort of a little poetic justice, in that the people that brewed this toxic Kool-Aid found themselves drinking a lot of it in the end."

Sleeping

According to a report published by the journal SLEEP last year, U. S. adults sleep, on average, 6.5 hours each night.

So that's the reason I'm so tired when I wake up.

Keeping up with the Indexes

Bank of America (BAC) and Chevron (CVX) are being added to the DJIA, replacing Altria (MO) and Honeywell (HON). A Dow Jones official on CNBC said that Altria spurred the change due to its plan to spin off its Phillip Morris brand. He said this is the first change to the average since 2004.

One of the primary reasons that it's so difficult for mutual fund managers or anyone whose benchmark is the Dow Jones Industrial Average to match or outperform it is that it's always changing.

I'll Be Home for Christmas - royalties

J. Kimball Gannon, who wrote the memorable song, left 30% of all his royalties to the Canton , New York St Lawrence University in his will. The payments started in 2000, following the death of Gannon's widow. Since then, St Lawrence has earned nearly $175,000!

Flyer's Rights

You've heard of the nightmares that travelers are experiencing through airports, stuck on airplanes, being late . . . . . want to do something about it? This is something the government ought to be doing and candidates should be talking about.

go the Flyer's Rights website and get involved click here

Super Bowl bets reviewed

Here are the results of the annual Phil vs Craig Super Bowl betting competition. There were 61 bets (stuff like longest TD, first team to score, most punt returns by team, time of possession, first turnover type, team to score 1st TD, team winning each quarter, the half and game, etc). It was tough going when we were selecting our positions but in the end there were 3 bets with no outcome ( there were no blocked punts, neither team won the 3rd quarter, each team punted 4 times) . . . . . . drum roll puleez . . . . . I won with 30 correct picks to Phil's 28. He's sending me the most coveted "loser's check" for 50 cents (yeah, we only bet 25 cents on each possible outcome). I'm now trying to figure what to do with it . . . . maybe pay down the mortgage . . . . naw, I'm gonna put it towards a new #16 blue winged olive fly.

You Tube and copyright infringement

there is no copyright infringement on You Tube's part . . . .

A site like YouTube is actually protected by law (the Digital Millenium Copyright Act, or DMCA) from being sued. The reason is that YouTube does not actually post content. It is simply a service that allows users to post content. Under the DMCA, they have "Safe Harbor" protections as a service provider. You may recall that Viacom sued YouTube, but there is a good chance that they would have lost. YouTube chose to settle for two very good reasons. One, it would have cost them a lot to defend. Two, they would rather the courts not test the DMCA when somebody with the money and clout of Viacom is sitting at the other table. Most of us do not have that kind of money. Of course, there are things they must do in order to maintain that Safe Harbor status. If the site where you find the infringing material is one where the operators of the site post the content then they have no protection under the law.

Predicition isn't easy . . . and you're told it is

This morning it was announced that job creation in the US dropped by 17,000 last month . . . .

None of the 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted the decline in payrolls, which was the first since August 2003. The median forecast in the survey projected payrolls would rise by 70,000, compared with an initially reported gain of 18,000 in December. Forecasts of an increase ranged from 5,000 to 160,000.