Rush Limbaugh's $1,000,000 bet

I was reminded today about this . . . . Do you recall Rush Limbaugh's offer to bet $1 million that President Bill Clinton's 1994 tax increases would plunge the country into a recession? Didn't happen.

Is it about the oil??

Victor Davis Hansen writes ". . . . Yet it's the anger over the tiny West Bank that in the past caused the Arab patrons of the Palestinians to embargo oil to the West and create long gas lines in Europe and America. As a result, a single suicide bomber from Jericho earns more press than anonymous thousands slaughtered in Darfur."


read more here

Pirated Music

According to BigChampagne, one billion songs a month are traded on illegal file-sharing networks.

A different view of our friends in Iraq . . .

George Packer has written an great piece in the New Yorker Magazine, here is an excerpt . . .

Whenever I asked Iraqis what kind of government they had wanted to replace Saddam’s regime, I got the same answer: they had never given it any thought. They just assumed that the Americans would bring the right people, and the country would blossom with freedom, prosperity, consumer goods, travel opportunities. In this, they mirrored the wishful thinking of American officials and neoconservative intellectuals who failed to plan for trouble . . . . . . . Although Iraqi employees had been vetted with background checks and took regular lie-detector tests, a permanent shadow of suspicion lay over them because they lived outside the Green Zone. Firas once attended a briefing at which the regional security officer told newly arrived Americans that no Iraqi could be trusted. The reminders were constant. Iraqi staff members were not allowed into the gym or the food court near the Embassy. Banned from the military PX, they had to ask an American supervisor to buy them a pair of sunglasses or underwear. These petty humiliations were compounded by security officers who easily crossed the line between vigilance and bullying.

a warning of sorts . . . this is a long article but worth the read
click here to read the rest of the article

Mortgage Fraud

The Treasury Department received a record 37,313 mortgage fraud reports in 2006, 10 times more than in 2000. But the true incidence is almost certainly higher because the government gets reports only from regulated institutions, not including the nation's 53,000 mortgage-broker firms.

What's wrong at Ford???

A Japanese company (Toyota) and an American company (General Motors) decided to have a canoe race on the Missouri River. Both teams practiced long and hard to reach their peak performance before the race. On the big day, the Japanese won by a mile.

The Americans, very discouraged and depressed, decided to investigate the reason for the crushing defeat. A management team made up of senior management was formed to investigate and recommend appropriate action. Their conclusion was the Japanese had 8 people rowing and 1 person steering, while the American team had 8 people steering and 1 person rowing. Feeling a deeper study was in order, American management hired a consulting company and paid them a large amount of money for a second opinion. They advised, of course, that too many people were steering the boat, while not enough people were rowing.
Not sure of how to utilize that information, but wanting to prevent another loss to the Japanese, the rowing team’s management structure was totally reorganized to 4 steering supervisors, 3 area steering superintendents and 1 assistant superintendent steering manager. They also implemented a new performance system that would give the 1 person rowing the boat greater incentive to work harder. It was called the “Rowing Team Quality First Program” with meetings, dinners and free pens for the rower. There was a discussion of getting new paddles, canoes and other equipment, extra vacation days for practices and bonuses.
The next year, the Japanese won by two miles.

Humiliated, the American management laid off the rower for poor performance, halted development of a new canoe, sold the paddles, and canceled all capital investments for new equipment. The money saved was distributed to the Senior Executives as bonuses and the next year’s racing team was out-sourced to India .
Sadly, The End

Sad, but oh so true! Here’s something else to think about: Ford has spent the last thirty years moving all its factories out of the US, claiming they can’t make money paying American wages. Toyota has spent the last thirty years building more than a dozen plants inside the US. The last quarter’s results: Toyota makes 4 billion in profits while Ford racked up 9 billion in losses. Ford folks are still scratching their heads.

and in a story this morning 4/6/07, Ford announced they paid the new CEO $28.18 million in his 1st 4 months on the job, they also paid $8.67 million for a few months work who to another who retired in July as COO

What's a "Grain"

Whenever you hear the term grain as in a measure of some herb or drug don't you wonder what the heck a grain is? The term originated from the unit of measure based historically on the average weight of a single grain of wheat. It was subsequently set to a more precise .0648 grams or .002285 ounces.

source . . . Thunderstruck by Erik Larson

Short Sales are Hot

``Banks don't want to be real estate managers,'' said Doug Duncan, chief economist of the mortgage association. ``The fact that delinquencies are rising means we're going to see more pre- foreclosure sales.'' read about it here

This is a good thing.

Sub-prime lenders are having no difficulty in finding buyers for their portfolios . . . Santa Monica, California-based Fremont said in a statement. The buyer wasn't identified. The loss reflects a discount to face value of about 4 percent, less than most analysts and investors had expect. read about it here

Rethinking California's Schools

Dan Weintraub is the best op-ed writer looking after Calfornia's taxpayers and citizens agendas . . . he's written another great piece on how the legislature could best handle the public schools . . . . . read it here

Sub-prime mortgage implosion will have dire consequences

Doug Kass at The Street.com is not your typical perma-bull, in fact he's the opposite and his take on the implosion of the sub-prime mortgage market and how it will affect liquidity, spending, profits and more is a good read. It might not come true but it's worth being aware of . . . click here to read the whole article

Government Childbearing Incentives

You just knew it had to be going on but here's some data on the subject.

Germany saw a birth boom during the first days of the new ear, attributed mainly to the government's childbearing incentives (bonuses of up to the equivalent of $33,000, leading mothers to attempt to delay December delivery until the law kicked in on Jan. 1). Meanwhile, in the United States, according to a December New York Times feature, an estimated 6% of the annual 70,000 babies scheduled to be born the first week of January were once again induced early, for late December delivery, to take advantage of tax breaks of at least $4,000 per child.

Interesting thought on God

A local letter to the editor said the following, ". . . As my father, a Navy doctor, used to say: God could have helped humanity much more by merely commanding, 'Thou shalt wash our hands several times a day.' "

Bill Gross "the bond guru" of PIMCO's latest month newsletter is great as always

"Actually it probably is good for something – war, that is. A lot of mankind’s technological advances have been bred in the bowels of wartime – radar and nuclear energy to name a few from World War II. And let’s not forget Iraq’s Humvee with its four-wheel consumer knock-off, the Hummer! Love those yellow Hummers rollin’ down the Coast Highway – 8 miles to the gallon and all – tailgating my poor little old Mercedes and threatening to roll right over it like a Bradley tank or something. In addition, war is usually justified as a defensive move – they did that to us or could do that to us, so it’s only logical we do that to them. And so it goes, and so it goes. But aside from these seemingly logical rationalities that stir jingoistic juices in a plea for our side, and a view that our dead are somehow more hallowed than their dead, I can only conclude from personal experience in Viet Nam, and redundant renderings of history books that Motown singer Edwin Starr was right – war is good for absolutely nothing." read me here

Did the Toll Brothers know the RE crash was coming?

or was that just good timing . . . here's a story about selling at the top (and I don't mean luxury homes) from the Street.com

"Everybody knows that Robert Toll and his brother Bruce, of the legendary homebuilder Toll Brothers are experts at building luxury homes. What we didn't know, until recently, is that they also are experts at selling shares.

Big time.

Back at the peak of the real estate market, when real estate agents and Wall Street shills were claiming the good times would just keep going, the Tolls took one look at the future ... and started shoveling shares out the door as fast as they could swing a spade.

In total, they sold nearly $470 million worth of stock in their company between November 2004 and September 2005, filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission show.

Nice timing -- for them."

If you think Stonehenge is amazing, check out Peru's 13 Towers

the mystery of the Thirteen Towers has been solved . . . . check this out here

Always consider the source . . .

When it comes to information about the economy, the markets or specific investment advice, it is always critically important to consider the source. Specifically, you need to know if the source of the information you are receiving is independent, or if the information is biased in some way in an effort to steer you toward their particular products and/or services. Likewise, you need to determine if the information or advice is credible.

Garlic doesn't help lower cholesterol . . . ?

What are they going to tell next? the earth is not warming?

Are cellphones necessary or a convenience?

Phil Dirkx recently wrote a piece on the subject in the SLO Tribune, which is right on . . . . read it here I wrote him a letter . . . .
"great piece today about convenience of cell phones. No one "needs" to stay that connected unless they have a serious self image problem. Cellphones are a nuisance most of the time to others. The other day I was on the treadmill at Kennedy and watched the girl next to me check her phone 6 times in 30 minutes! Another time I was ordering some food at counter and during the order the attendant checked her phone, sent a text message then returned to me and asked "what was it you wanted again?"
his response was . . . .
"Thanks for responding. On two occasions I have seen men talking on cell phones while standing at urinals. Keep smiling, Phil Dirkx"

Markets crash around the world . . men or machines?

If you need an explanation as to what happened today around 3 PM EST time read this article. In one minute the DJI dropped 200 points . . . all systems crashed and volume on the NYSE hit 4 billion shares! That's epic.

God violates local codes in San Mateo

Darn, just when I was getting ready to paint some signs on my house announcing the apocalyptic event I had just discovered when overing a "voice" in my backyard I read this story about a woman in San Mateo who is being told she can't paint signs all over her house . . . . guess the neighbors thought it was hurting real estate values.

read about it here

Oscars afterthoughts

Ellen was no John Stewart, Martin Scorcese was a done deal but where oh where was Robert de Niro (as important to Scorcese's library of films, one would have thought that he'd be there or at least some kind of video "hello")? I liked "Queen" and "Venus" but believed that the Academy would give it Forrestt . . pretty damn good performance. It must truly difficult to play yourself as Peter O'Toole has done in Venus . . . incredible film for those of us getting a little older.

Biggest mistake . . . Inconvenient Truth. This award lowers the bar for documentary films doesn't it?

Guess I have to go see Pans Labyrinth and we have Departed coming from Netflix.

The vignettes were great again and the segues from the commercials (which are now better than the Superbowl's) back into the show were great.

Last but not least . . . . seeing Lucas, Coppola and Spielberg together on one stage was terrific and they were funny too.

craigkincaid.com

time for a little self service promotion . . . . . check my website www.craigkincaid.com
you can learn a little about my music and my hardwood lumber business

thanks

Craig

Tax preparers aren't always that good at it

The IRS reports that 10,000,000 early filers this year so far did not request the telephone tax refund which could be worth as much as $60 . . . . the really bad news - half of those returns were prepared by tax preparers who got paid to do so. Be careful out there.

Stranded airline passengers revolt

finally someone has the ball rolling to put things right for airline passengers. just the other day I was talking with a friend about "flying" and we both agreed that it's now an everyday ordeal. the thrill and excitement of flying has gone. I dread the day I get stuck on tarmac within view of the loading gate and . . . . . nothing to read!

check out the stranded passengers bill of rights blog here

Revolting Sounds

In a year long Internet study of 1,100,000 people, Professor Trevor Cox, an acoustical engineer doing research at Salford University in Manchester, England had participants listen to 34 sounds and rate them from bad, really bad, awful, really awful to horrible. Drum roll please . . . . . here are the top ten
1 vomiting
2 microphone feedback
3 multiple babies crying
4 scraping of train wheels
5 seesaw squeaking
6 bad violin playing
7 flatulence
8 one baby crying
9 soap opera argument
10 electicity hum

the survey is here

Common Logic Fallacy

There's a letter in today's Tribune which I thought covered the topic of logic very well. . . . . . someone in a previous letter chose "to argue the premise that belief and evidence are contradictory. He concludes that, if evidence is presented, belief cannot exist. He has concluded his argument by restating the premise, a common fallacy of logic. The problem is that, if the premise is false, so is the conclusion.

One can have faith that an untried chair will hold if one should decide to sit. That faith maybe unproven prior to sitting, but the faith can be based on a lifetime of evidence. One may recognize the structure as skillfully constructed. One may accept as evidence the hospitality with which the chair is offered. Documents can guarantee there are no defects. But despite the evidence, until one actually sits in the chair, its only by faith that one assumes the chair will not fail.

So, one can have faith, and entertain logical evidence that supports that faith.

And then there will always be those who, like a child, will confidently sit by faith alone.

Best Advice

You can always find people but you can't always find soletude.

Help some refugee children

Toni, my bride of 30 years, has been knitting sweaters lately. When she completes one she sends it off to an organization that distributes them to refugee children.

click here to learn more

Libertarian 2007 Resolutions

click here

Art Buchwald's last column

from the Washington Post . . . here it is.

Several of my friends have persuaded me to write this final column, which is something they claim I shouldn't leave without doing.

There comes a time when you start adding up all the pluses and minuses of your life. In my case I'd like to add up all the great tennis games I played and all of the great players I overcame with my now famous "lob." I will always believe that my tennis game was one of the greatest of all time. Even Kay Graham, who couldn't stand being on the other side of the net from me, in the end forgave me.

I can't cover all the subjects I want to in one final column, but I would just like to say what a great pleasure it has been knowing all of you and being a part of your lives. Each of you has, in your own way, contributed to my life.

Now, to get down to the business at hand, I have had many choices concerning how I wanted to go. Most of them are very civilized, particularly hospice care. A hospice makes it very easy for you when you decide to go.

What's interesting is that everybody has his or her own opinion as to how you should go out. All my loved ones became very upset because they thought I should brave it out -- which meant more dialysis.

But here is the most important thing: This has been my decision. And it's a healthy one.

The person who was the most supportive at the end was my doctor, Mike Newman. Members of my family, while they didn't want me to go, were supportive, too.

But I'm putting it down on paper, so there should be no question the decision was mine.

I chose to spend my final days in a hospice because it sounded like the most painless way to go, and you don't have to take a lot of stuff with you.

For some reason my mind keeps turning to food. I know I have not eaten all the eclairs I always wanted. In recent months, I have found it hard to go past the Cheesecake Factory without at least having one profiterole and a banana split.

I know it's a rather silly thing at this stage of the game to spend so much time on food. But then again, as life went on and there were fewer and fewer things I could eat, I am now punishing myself for having passed up so many good things earlier in the trip.

I think of a song lyric, "What's it all about, Alfie?" I don't know how well I've done while I was here, but I'd like to think some of my printed works will persevere -- at least for three years.

I know it's very egocentric to believe that someone is put on Earth for a reason. In my case, I like to think I was. And after this column appears in the paper following my passing, I would like to think it will either wind up on a cereal box top or be repeated every Thanksgiving Day.

So, "What's it all about, Alfie?" is my way of saying goodbye.

Teen Sleeping

Do you know a teen that has difficulty waking up early?

click here and learn more about it

Denying pensions to convicted legislators

The Senate passed a bill this last week that will strip away pension from any future legislators who are convicted of "white collar crimes" such as bribery, perjury and fraud. The vote was a whopping 87-0, sounds like they mean business. Let's hope President Bush signs the bill. Luckily for Randy "The Dukster" Cunningham, this isn't a retroactive law . . . . BUT IT SHOULD BE, SHOULDN'T IT?

Crude oil's relationship to gasoline . . .

There doesn't seem to be one . . . . . .
Even though Oil has fallen 33% from its Summer peaks, gasoline is selling at only a penny less than it was in December (according to AAA).

Why is the price of crude oil falling ???

Well, the conventional story is that it's a nice warm winter but . . . . . here's the real reason : from the NY Post . . .


"It might be a better idea to thank Goldman Sachs, not the weather, for the recent plunge in oil prices. While recent balmy temperatures have certainly played a role in last week's dip in oil prices, a lesser known, but equally powerful, move by Goldman at the start of the year might bear some responsibility as well.

Goldman cut the energy portion by as much as 50 percent in some of the sub-indexes that comprise the widely followed Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, tamping down moves to buy them by large investment funds who mimic Goldman's index.

The changes took effect this month and apply for all of 2007, a Goldman spokesman said. Crude oil futures plunged 9 percent Wednesday and Thursday to $55 a barrel, before settling Friday at $56.31. The two-day decline was the sharpest since December 2004.

The GSCI is influential because large institutional investors like pension funds and endowments invest according to its allocation model."

Goodies in Google-land for California employees

In a recent report, 16 Google insiders cashed in 9 million shares last year to the tune of $3.7 billion with a state tax liability approaching $380 million (can you see the legislature angling how to spend it?). This amount will pay the salaries for more than 3,000 state workers. New governor Arnold is also happy to be the recipient of the windfall (well, he doesn't get it but he gets to spend it).

Rainbows over Laguna Lake

As the storm from last week was clearing through, we saw an amazing rainbow from our backyard . . . .

Find a good charity

It's not too late to help. To determine whether the charity you going to give to is worthy, use this website to do some research . . . click here

Mt Washington in New Hampshire

Mount Washington is the highest point in New England and the second highest peak on the Eastern half of the United States. Nestled in the majestic Presidential Range of the White Mountains of New Hampshire, the peak rises to an elevation of 6,288 feet above sea level.

The highest winds ever recorded on Earth were measured at the summit at 231 mph. Since it was first climbed in 1646 131 people have died hiking and climbing in the Presidential range of New Hampshire of which Mt Washington is highest peak. If the weather is nice you can drive to the summit in 20 minutes!

In October 2005, I was there and enjoyed a very cold but clear cloudless day. Unlimited visibility in every direction . . . . 10 days later there was 72" of snow there!


Take a little time to check out this amazing mountain at :


http://www.mountwashington.org/

Climbing for CARE with Dan Dominy

One of my best friends, emmy award winning cameraman, Dan Dominy left for an epic trip to Africa to trek up Kilimanjaro and raise $150,000 for farmers in Senegal last January. Dan was part of the film crew. You can learn more about the climb here

Pareidolia

It's a new phenomenon that scientists have named for the "perception of patterns where non are intended". The latest example is a water mark on a wall at home in Los Vegas that people are attributing to an apparition of the Virgin Mary. Another example is when one hears a strange sound in the house and attributes it so an intruder, when in most cases, it's just the wind.

The Death of DVD's ???

Circuit City's disastrous results in big-screen television prices weren't all that ailed the company in its third quarter. DVD sales, or the decline of them is mind boggling. We bought a big-screen Vizio 37" at Costco some time ago for $695 when everything else (Panasonic, etc) was over $1600 and now they are all much less money. But no one is buying DVD's anymore with on-demand video available and netflix being so easy to use.

The World's Sports Humanitarian Hall of Fame

Never heard of it? Of course not. That's because the mass media only reports what the athletes are doing when they get caught doing something wrong. That's wrong in my view and I just found out about the WSHHF click here to see it

How to invest with a better chance . . .

Ken Fisher (Forbes Magazine) says "the key to winning in investment—I paraphrase him here—is making bets “only” when you know things that most other players in the market don't".

Jesus Police is not a faith based website but seeks the truth

The mission of this website is to correct all the mis-information concerning the Life and Times of Jesus. This website seeks to collect the most accurate information we can about important issues related to Jesus. This is not a faith based website and nothing on this website is intended to prove or disprove whether or not Jesus is God or the Son of God. click here

BE FLEXIBLE IN YOUR VIEWS

"I have more respect for people who change their views after acquiring new information than for those who cling to views they held thirty years ago. The world changes. Ideologues and zealots don't." Michael Crichton STATE of FEAR

Ahmet Ertegun passes

There was no one bigger to us boomer music fans. He made it all happen.

read about his incredible life here

Walk Don't Run

The Ventures created one of the most played and popular tunes ever in Walk Don't Run which was used as a theme in Hawaii Five Oh and made it to the top of the pop charts in the 60's. They went on to record many of the best surf tunes ever . . . . but they have never been inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame . . . why or why?

my website

Have you checked my website lately you can do so at www.craigkincaid.com . . . . there you can learn a great deal about hardwood lumber, trading and my music world.

Grad School is the New College

Despite what you have heard, there is very little wage pressure throughout most of the system. Select, high paying jobs that require highly educated workers have wage pressure. Most of therest of the labor market does not. Kids, that's a lesson worth learning: Don't just stay in school, but keep adding letters after your name -- Grad School is the new college.

Can it get any worse for W ??? . . . . probably

His approval rating is the lowest ever according to the latest Zogby poll . . . click here

Mt Whitney . . . the tallest peak on the continuous USA

was initially called Fisherman's Peak by the "Three Fishermen" who first scaled the summit in 1873. Mt Whitney creates it's own weather!

Remembering the 60's

If you're a boomer then you'll remember everything at this website with fondness. It was a great decade. Click here

Foreigners love our debt . . .

and that's a real good thing.

In dollar terms, foreign investors increased their debt holdings by $190.3 billion and equity holdings by $115.9 billion in the third quarter.

Foster Brooks

want to see one of the funniest comediens ever? go to this link and see some of the Foster Brooks routines at the Friars Club. youtube

Making art from junk

For 16 years, NorCal Waste Systems (a private company) has provided Bay Area artists with a $1900 monthly stipend, fully equipped work space and an end of term public art exhibit. About 60 artists apply each year and between 4 and 8 are accepted. You can check out some of their work here

Best Enviromental Ski Areas Report

the Ski Area Citizens' Coalition, a group of environmental groups led by Colorado Wild in Durango, Colo., has released its report card on 77 western ski areas. check it out here

Now we're blaming Iraq???

Blaming Iraqis for the woeful situation disregards recent history, some experts argue. Phebe Marr, an Iraq expert and adviser to the Iraq Study Group, calculates that because of policy missteps and other errors, the United States bears about 60 percent of the blame. "You can't say, 'We did this and the Iraqis didn't rise to the occasion,' " she said. "There's enough blame to go around."

better than Google???

Have you tried the new search engine created by Microsoft?? It's www.live.com. give it a try, it's pretty good.

Extinction

It's estimated that 99% of all species that have ever existed are now extinct! WOW

The mind has limited energy

Research studies have demonstrated that when people's psychological resources are taxed to the limit, they make impulsive mistakes. Maintaining discipline takes psychological energy, and when you use it up, you have to rest. Just like a muscle, when you are worn out, you need to take a break and regain your strength. It's vital to consider that the mind has limited energy, and that after putting in a hard and tedious effort, you must take a rest and rejuvenate, so you can face the world with a renewed sense of vigor. This applies to trading.

5 Pillars of Aristocracy

1. Beauty
2. Well
3. Birth
4. Genius
5. Virtues
any one of the first 3 can at any time overbear any one or both of the last

Soul

according to Winston Marsalis when asked about Ed Bradley having soul and "what is soul?" he said "soul is when you have the ability to make other people feel better about being alive regardless of their condition."

Happy Thanksgiving to all and all a good turkey

Today is the quintessential American holiday . . . enjoy good feelings, food and love with you family and friends. I'm going to.

Bull Market 3rd phase . . . .

"Once a price history develops, and people hear that their neighbor made a lot of money on something, that impulse takes over, and we're seeing that in commodities and housing...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."

Warren Buffett

FOX (Murdoch) once again prove how sleezy they are

Yes, they've agreed to not show the interview with OJ but why did it even get that far? How could something like "How I Killed My Wife" even get considered? Because Fox doesn't care about right, only ratings and so now they get to come off as "doing the right thing". Murdoch and his crew are the worst.

Household Jobs Survery

The Household Survey has become the last refuge of economic scoundrels. Whenever anyone trots out Household Employment Survey as proof of job creation, it is an admission that they are clueless hack, or a charlatan. This has been so clearly resolved that it tortures the imagination to understand WTF this is doing in the NYTimes. For posterity, I will repeat this for the umpteenth time: the Household survey IS NOT A SUPERIOR MEASURE OF JOB CREATION to the establishment survey. However, it is a reliable source of confusing data to the layperson that it can be cherry-picked by the disingenous.

What it measures is UNemployment. No less an authority than the BLS, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve have said that the Household Survey is not a good measure of job creation. It was never designed to measure new job creation. For more information on this, see BLS on Payroll vs. Household Survey, Redux: Household versus Establishment Surveys and this Household versus Establishment Surveys, part 42.

3 Reasons for Living

from an anonymous reader . . . . there are 3 reasons for living

1. To build a better world

2. To make life more interesting

3. To draw all the attention possible to oneself

Priorities of football

It's nice to see that election officials in Ohio (ahem, still questions about the 2004 election there) have their priorities on straight. A very close House seat is up for grabs, Rep. Deborah Pryce, is ahead in her central Ohio race by 3,536 votes. In the Columbus, OH area, officials are delaying the count of more than 9,000 provisional ballots by one day so it doesn't disrupt the "much vaunted" Michigan-Ohio St football game on Nov 18. oh yeah, wouldn't want to compromise an election for a football game.

Rockefeller Tree

Did you see the size of this tree they plucked out some guy's backyard to put in Rockefeller Plaza?

Did anything really big happen?

Nope, just a bunch of re arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic in my view. I doubt if any meaningful change in taxation, spending or growth in goverment trends will change in the next 2 years. There will be more vengeful campaigns, lots of money tossed at demopublicans by lobbyists, the Alternative Minimum Tax will not be amended, auto fuel mileage will not be addressed, nope, not much will really change . . . . . oh wait a minute. Maybe we'll start pulling out of Iraq.

Google pays for traffic? who would have guessed?

Google actually paid for traffic - $1 billion to Dell over 3 years for a crummy toolbar on Dell PCs. The numbers may work, but it's kind of like Hugh Grant paying for something he would get anyway. There may still be someone in Sheboygen who doesn't know about Google. Is search now such a commodity that Google needs to pay money to keep growing?

Steroids

OK, I know how steroid use can be stopped right now . . . but I really don't believe anyone in control wants to stop it, they just are playing the politics but back to my solution. Punish the team, not the individual. Let's take the case of the latest guilty party . . . The San Diego Chargers. The Charger's linebacker Shawne Merriman tested positive, of course he denies it, that's the typical response. But we all know that he used steroids, heck they all do. Anyway, instead of banning him for 4 games, I say, the Chargers should have to forfeit the next 4 games. That would get some action on eliminating steroid use, wouldn't it?

don't get me wrong, I love baseball

I hope I didn't give the wrong impression yesterday. Baseball has always been my favorite "team" sport, I've played it almost all my life (from 5 to 45 . . . then my arm went out). But I gave up on professional baseball after the first strike and about the time the O'Malley's sold the Dodgers. I became difficult to know what next year's team was going to be since free agency allowed for the continual breaking up of teams.
Now here's the catch to my love hate . . . . I enjoy high school and college baseball more than ever. There you have teams!!!

Now here are some things I think which might help pro Baseball get some fans back . . . . with respect to the World Series. Have the WS at a neutral site where they have good weather! And lastly . . . there's no need for every "non-baseball minute" to be filled with hystrionics, fireworks, cheerleaders, etc. It's okay to have some down time between batters and innings . . . . puleeez?

has Baseball lost it?

Now don't get me wrong, I still love baseball but . . . .

It hasn't been that long since the World Series was decided but here are some interesting observations, people won't even watch baseball in high definition from their family room couches anymore. This year's TV ratings for the final game were the worst ever and less than half of the ratings 15 years ago. There are way too many commercials.
Remember when you used to sneak your portable radio into class; put in your desk, keep the volume low and then put your head on the desk so you could pretend you were napping and listen to the World Series game? It didn't matter who was playing it was the best teams playing on the grandest of stages.
Remember when people cared so much about the World Series that the smallest paper in the land would devote a weeks worth of rich stories about games? Last Saturday's Louisville Courier-Journal, a venerable publication in a town that is only a 4 hour drive from St Louis covered the entire championsip in one small wire service story with only 6 paragraphs on the front page!

I'll follow up on this post with another tomrrow . . . .

"Mission accomplished!" GHW Bush . . . . huh?

let's see how many days since the "mission was accomplished"? . . . . well, we're approaching 1300 days. doesn't seem like much has been accomplished.

Thinking . . . . or not

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are really rearranging their prejudices." William James

Being something???

most people believe they must do something to have something to be something, that's not true. being something is totally up to you.

American's owning their homes

an interesting piece in Forbes compared some statistics over the last 40 years, the most interesting to me was the % of American's owning their own homes. I would have guess that today we are are some himalayan peak but not so . . . .

Home Ownership Percentage

1965 63%
1975 68%
1985 64%
1995 65%
2005 69%

Source: St. Louis Fed

~~~

Silence

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about the things that matter.

Martin Luther King, Jr

Politics

Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber.
- Plato

Whistling Straits

just got back from Kohler, Wisconsin. Herb Kohler handed a blank check to Pete Dye and said build me 4 great golf courses. the resort is called the American Golf Resort and the 4 courses are the Irish, the Meadows and Valley, the River and the Whistling Straits courses. the 2004 PGA Championship won by V J Singh was played there.

click here to visit the website and see all of the golf holes

Real Estate Bottom?? St Joe gives it up

Is this a sign of a bottom?

St. Joe (JOE: NYSE) announced last night that it is getting out of the homebuilding business. As the market turned lower, the company insisted everything was splendid and demand was strong. Guess those houses on the banks of the swamp (and even the beach) weren't as popular as they led us to believe.

The company had a tremendous run several years ago, but in this trying market, management has proven it is reactionary, not visionary. In an effort to pump up its declining asset value, management reclassified all of its timberland to land that can be developed, despite the fact that much of it won't be developed for years. Now, they are bailing on building homes.

Lots of gloom and doom in housing. Could this be the first sign of a bottom?

need to get out of a meeting?

then schedule a telephone at PopularityDialer.com Jenny LC Chowdhury and Cory Forsyth created PopularityDialer.com. It's a Web site that allows users to schedule a phone call from one of five recorded voices... providing a way out of boring meetings or uncomfortable situations.

new thinking on videos

How close are we to having a new concept of a "set-top box" that pulls videos from anywhere, anytime so that the concept of a "channel" being "broadcast" fades from memory?

Flipping Real Estate and how it's not working anymore

Do you know what the Ghost Housing Market is?

Here is the link to a sobering look at what's going on between developers and flippers . . . it used to be a good gamble to buy a house pre-construction and sell it before you had to take occupancy of it . . . that doesn't work anymore and flippers are taking baths on their "investments". Hopefully your not one them.

click here

Do you really need instant pleasure?

As much as you may think you need immediate pleasure, you don't. You can wait for a trade to come to fruition. If you wait calmly and follow your trading plan, you will increase your odds of success, and end up with a lot more profits later.

Has Patenting Gone Crazy??

Have you ever used a laser pointer to drive your pet crazy? You may soon have your day in court because you infringed on Patent No. 5443036, "Method of Exercising a Cat," including "any other animals with the chase instinct."

And if you, after reading this, think you better go back to having your dog fetch a plain old stick, beware. There's a patent for that, too. (No. 6360693, "Animal Toy.")

Have you ever sat on a swing suspended from a tree branch, making yourself swing from side to side by alternately pulling on the chains? You're toast, according to the laws protecting Patent No. 6368227, "Method of Swinging on a Swing."

And speaking of toast: You may want to eat your bread unheated from now on, lest you may be found guilty of violating Patent No. 6080436, "Bread Refreshing Method."

In Australia, John Keogh, a freelance patent lawyer striving to expose the faulty system, managed in 2001 to patent a "Circular Transportation Facilitation Device," a.k.a. the wheel.

Patent laws were originally designed to protect truly innovative ideas from being stolen by others, granting the owner 20 years of exclusive rights to his invention. So far, so good.

Golf

Paul Azinger pointed something very interesting . . . a round of golf consists of 90 seconds of motion and 4 1/2 hours of emotion.

Is the grice of gasoline too high?

a recent survey for the National Retil Federation found that 42% of households with incomes of less than $50K were dining out less frequetnly because of high gas prices and that 33% with higher incomes had cut back on eating at restaurants. less than 25% of the 7,388 people polled in May said that gas prices were having "no major impact," down from last year's 33.8% the pressure on houshold finances is showing up in higher credit card deliquencies, the ABA said. late payments to credit card companies rose to 4.4 % in the first 3 months of the year - a reversal fromthe six months of declines.

then there's my own "tell" . . . I don't see any evidence of people slowing down on freeways. trying to drive the speed limit in California will get you run off the road and until I see people slowing down (which is the most effective way of conserving gasoline) I won't believe that the price of gasoline is too high.

What does war mean to your wealth?

Many times in the past, shortly after war breaks out, markets rally . . . read more
click here

State of Califonia Tort Liability Index

State Tort Liability Index Rankings

Regular readers of this newsletter know that we like to look at how the State of California ranks against other states on matters of public policy. A recent study by the Pacific Research Institute assesses the condition of each state’s tort liability system relative to other states. The study uses a dynamic model of elements of each state’s tort system to come up with a ranking in relation to other states. In other words, it assesses the positive and negative aspects of each state’s laws and outcomes of court cases instead of relying on individual opinions.

The report, U.S. Tort Liability Index: 2006 measures which states have relatively high tort costs and which states have enacted more reforms to better position themselves for future economic prosperity.

According to this study, California ranks 35th out of 50 states We score the highest (meaning the worst) in the study’s monetary caps category. This means that we have very few caps on monetary awards. We score the best on the study’s monetary tort losses category, which measure the amount of loss that defendants experience in tort cases. States that do best on the overall scale are Texas and Colorado (where recent tort reforms have been adopted) and the worst are Rhode Island and Vermont (states that have few legal limits on tort cases).

The reason we need to examine where California lies in relation to other states is because it makes a difference on whether businesses open a new location, hire more people, or invest in new plants.

As stated by former Michigan Governor John Engler, who is now President of the National Association of Manufacturers, “the health of a state’s civil justice system is a key indicator of its economic vitality and potential for future growth. A fair, stable, and predictable legal environment is critical to a state’s ability to attract investment, draw new businesses, and generate new jobs.” I couldn’t agree more.

To view the Institute’s study you can go to:
http://www.pacificresearch.org

sorry I've been gone awhile but . . .

we bought a house and you know what type of work that takes. anyway, I'll be back after the fireworks on the 4th of July but if you haven't checked out www.checkout.google.com . . . do so

economic theory . . . eh?

Any given economic theory will perfectly describe the world as long as you agree with the underlying assumptions. More often than not, however, the underlying assumptions take us from the real world into a world of, well, theory.

Real Estate values and the CPI - rental equivalence explained

Rental Equivalence--Background

Until the early 1980s, the CPI used what is called the asset price method to measure the change in the costs of owner-occupied housing. The asset price method treats the purchase of an asset, such as a house, as it does the purchase of any consumer good. Because the asset price method can lead to inappropriate results for goods that are purchased largely for investment reasons, the CPI implemented the rental equivalence approach to measuring price change for owner-occupied housing. It was implemented for the CPI-U in January 1983 and for the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) in January 1985.

Rental equivalence. This approach measures the change in the price of the shelter services provided by owner-occupied housing. Rental equivalence measures the change in the implicit rent, which is the amount a homeowner would pay to rent, or would earn from renting, his or her home in a competitive market. Clearly, the rental value of owned homes is not an easily determined dollar amount, and Housing survey analysts must spend considerable time and effort in estimating this value.

When initially introduced, the rental equivalence index’s monthly movement was calculated by reweighting the rent sample to represent owner-occupied units. Starting with the CPI for January 1987, the rental equivalence index movement was based on changes in the implicit rents of a sample of owner-occupied units. As part of the 1987 revision, BLS drew a new housing sample to replace the old rent sample. The new sample had both owner- and renter-occupied housing units. To estimate the change in the implicit rents of the owners, the CPI:

* Estimated initial implicit rents by asking the CPI data collectors to work with the owners themselves to estimate the units’ potential rent.
* Measured the change in implicit rents over time by matching owner units to renter units with similar characteristics. The characteristics included location, structure type, and other general traits such as age, number of rooms, and type of air conditioning.
* Derived the change in the implicit rent for each owner unit in the sample from the change in the actual rents of its matched set of renters. Because owners pay for utilities separately, the CPI calculated the pure rent of the matched renters by removing the value of any landlord-provide utilities and furniture. The implicit rents of the owner units were moved by the changes in the pure rents of the matched renters.
* Moved the rental equivalence index by the average changes in the implicit rents of the owner units.

In 1997, BLS started the process of developing a new housing sample to replace the one that had been in use since 1987, and began using it starting with the index for January 1999. BLS dropped the owner sample and returned to the method that was used for the rental equivalence index when it was first introduced, that is, reweighting the renter sample to represent owner-occupied units.

This decision was made for several reasons:

* Moving implicit rents by matching renter and owner observations is inherently a reweighting of the rent sample.
* A large portion of the 1987 sample was devoted to owners, to support the estimation of initial implicit rent. By dropping the owner sample, the field staff would not have to initiate, price, and maintain an owner sample.
* Because owner-renter matching is not needed for rental equivalence, the calculation of the index would be greatly simplified.

you can learn more at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website

on economists

"If all the economists in the world were laid end to end, it wouldn't be a bad thing."
-- Peter Lynch

Charlie Munger quote

in case you don't know who Charlie Munger is, he's Warren Buffet's partner at Berkshire Hathaway . . . now here's a great quote from CM

"The harder you work on something, the more confidence you have in it. But you might be working on something you aren't good at."

Ron Howard

a conversation with Ron Howard reveals :

Who are your favorite writers? The Daily Show with Jon Stewart staff.

Who is your favorite hero of fiction? R.P. McMurphy, of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.

Which historical figure do you most identify with? Lenny Wilkins. A long career as a point guard, a longer career as a head coach.

Dead Reckoning

Captains of the 15th, 16th and 17th centuries used to determine their position at sea (distance east or west of home port) by this method. The captain would throw a log overboard and observe how quickly the ship receded from the temporary guidepost. He noted the crude speeedometer reading in his ship's logbook, along with the direction of travel, which he took from the stars or a compass, and the length of time on a particular course, counted with a sandglass or a pocket watch. Factoring in the effects of ocean currents, fickel winds and errors in judgment he then determined his longitdue. Too often, the technique of dead reckoning marked him for a dead man.

Before the invention of the ship's clock by John Harrison in 18th century, ship's captains really didn't know where they were longitudally . . . . this is interesting when you think about Magellan circumnavigating the globe.

should we be worried about a Democratic congress ?

from thestreet.com's Jim Cramer . . . . mostly he's brilliant, forget the Mad Money persona

here's his take this morning

Random musings: Guess we should be panicked that the House of Representatives might go Democratic. Sell the drug stocks. Be ready for big spending. You can bet that the budget will no longer be balanced and that federal borrowing will spike. Oops! That all happened under the Republicans, didn't it? The papers are trying to sow fear about the Republican agenda, but to me the agenda has been everything that could possibly be reckless for the dollar and stock markets, except the dividend tax cut. We have experienced an unprecedented spending binge, one that has helped make U.S. markets among the worst in the world. I don't fear a Democratic turn in the House. We had two-party government with Clinton and it worked great. Frankly, all we want out of Washington is that they do nothing at this point, and a gridlocked Congress is a recipe for exactly that. I am hoping it happens. That way we take Washington out of the equation. Good riddance!

Ax

If the ax is not sharp, it doesn't matter how hard the wood is."

old Chinese proverb