"With all of the talk of the difficult borrowing environment and de-leveraging, very little debt is actually gone, despite massive write-offs by banks," Andy Matthes, portfolio manager at Matthes Capital, wrote in a recent letter to investors, a copy of which was obtained by MarketWatch. Most of this debt mountain is still tied to the fragile, government-supported housing market. At the peak of the real estate boom in 2006, U.S. households owed $9.8 trillion in mortgage debt. By the end of September, that had climbed to $10.3 billion.
Such high debt levels leave households with less cash available to spend on other things. With consumers typically accounting for two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, this situation should dent economic growth. However, personal consumption currently makes up more than 70% of GDP, well above the average of 66% since 1929, according to Matthes.
Consumption has likely remained high because of government transfer payments, which help people who have fallen on hard times through the social welfare system.
Security is both a feeling and a reality. The propensity for security theater comes from the interplay between the public and its leaders.
for more click hereAfter Captain Sutter had settled at Fort New Helvetia he was in the habit, at times, of sending fresh salmon to Yerba Buena. The fish were fresh-salted or smoked. Nathan Spear, who was an epicure, and lover of good things, appreciated these fish very highly. The idea suggested itself to his mind that something profitable might be done in salmon fishing on the Sacramento River. Not wishing to trespass upon Captain Sutter’s ground, although, of course, Sutter had no exclusive right to the fish in the river, Spear wrote to him on the subject and received encouragement to go up and engage in fishing there for salmon. He made several trips in 1840 and ‘41 in the schooner Isabella, camping on the bank of the Sacramento in a comfortable tent, and superintended the catching of the fish by the crew of his schooner and by Indians experienced in fishing, furnished by Captain Sutter. He took large quantities of salmon, filling the hold of the Isabella with fish packed in bulk, transported them to Yerba Buena, and disposed of them at satisfactory prices, packed in barrels and kegs of different sizes, to visiting vessels and to residents, making a good profit.
To Nathan Spear, therefore, is due the credit of having inaugurated the salmon fishery on this coast as a business, and of developing, to a considerable extent, an enterprise which has since grown to large proportions. On the last trip to the river in salmon catching Mrs. Spear accompanied her husband.
LAS VEGAS - In the latest sign of the economic free fall, U.S. citizens are starting to show up in the early mornings outside home improvement stores and plant nurseries across the Las Vegas Valley, jostling with illegal immigrants for a shot at a few hours of work.
Experts say the slow starting but seemingly inexorable trend is occurring nationwide.
"It's the equivalent of selling apples in the Great Depression," said Harley Shaiken, chairman of the Center for Latin American studies at the University of California, Berkeley.
Hong Kong hasn’t been the only tax jurisdiction implicated in the past year. UBS admitted in February that it helped U.S. clients create sham companies in Panama and the British Virgin Islands, while hiding the true owners from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. UBS clients who pleaded guilty also implicated Singapore, Liechtenstein, Mexico and the Cayman Islands.
The IRS is analyzing a trove of information from more than 7,500 taxpayers who voluntarily disclosed their offshore accounts this year to avoid prosecution. To qualify, clients had to disclose everyone who handled their money overseas and everywhere it went.
This is going to get exciting!
Ben Bernanke has declared the recession over.
This leads to one simple question: Why should you care what his recession forecasts are?
Based on his track record as a forecaster and his acumen in identifying economic problems before they exploded, his views on starts and finishes of recessions are, to be blunt, irrelevant.
Recall it was Mr. Bernanke who described the sub-prime situation as “Contained;” it was he who believed Housing would not spill over to the broader economy; and it was he who somehow thought the Bear Stearns situation was a one-off.
I don’t wish to single out Mr. Bernanke; After all, he is an economist, and if you were paying attention, you will note that the entire profession missed the oncoming recession, credit crisis and market collapse. You may also find it helpful to ignore what the profession that cannot forecast yesterday thinks about tomorrow.
Even now, the Federal Reserve Chairman said the recession was “very likely over” as consumers showed some of the first tangible signs of spending again. Never mind that all this retail activity has been driven by government subsidies.
Now, as an investor, you do want to be mindful of the Fed Chief’s economic views, particularly how they pertain to his interest rate policies. The ed has made it clear rates are staying low for the foreseeable future, so this becomes a non-issue in this context.
But his economic forecasts? Don’t bother.
Note that I have not been a particularly harsh critic of the Fed Chair. While he may not be Paul Volcker, he is also (thankfully) not Alan Greenspan. And we could have done much worse than having a student of the Great Depression, who is also an out-of-the-box thinker as Fed Chief.
But as a prognosticator? He is no better than his predeccessor . . .
Citigroup also increased its loan loss reserves more slowly in the first quarter, adding $10 billion compared with $12 billion in the fourth quarter, even as more loans were going bad. Provisions for loan losses cut profits, so adding more to this reserve could have wiped out the quarterly earnings.
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