Monday, August 23, 2010

The Hindenberg Omen is nigh

1 That the daily number of new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must be greater than 2.2 percent of total issues traded that day.
2 That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
3 That the NYSE 10 Week Moving average is rising.
4 That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
5 That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.
On 8/12/2020, all five conditions were satisfied.
June 2008 was another such reconfirmed event, and as Barron's pointed out then, "there's a 25% probability of a full-blown stock-market crash in the next 120 days. Caveat emptor." Boy was the emptor caveating within 120 days (especially if said emptor was named Dick Fuld). Which brings us to the present: should the Omen be reconfirmed within 36 days, all bets are off.

No comments: