Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Figuring what happened using a physicist or an economist

It's time to realize that there is one very important difference in economics and physics. Faced with facts that don't match theory, physicists try to come up with alternative theories. Economists, on the other hand, try to change facts so that it matches their theory. So, today, economists on the left are arguing that defective regulation caused all the troubles. A year from now, I am sure conservative economists will come back and argue that government meddling post the Lehman crises is what has caused the recession to be as long as it is going to turn out to be. And it is not just economists. Almost all fund managers have one particular lens through which they want to view everything in the world. All stocks in the world need to fit their theory of how stocks should behave. And if they don't, it is just a short term disruption that will be corrected duly in the course of time. "In the long run, everyone is dead", as Keynes said.

Monday, December 29, 2008

What we can look forward to - stimulus plans

Examples of the kind of stimulus we can look forward to, according to the LA Times, are as follows:

Rather than rebuilding highways, a nonprofit group called Reconnecting America wants the government to focus on a "21st century national transportation system" of mass transit and walking and bike paths

The Air Transport Assn. is seeking $1 billion to upgrade airports and $3 billion to modernize avionics

Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP), owner of the longest refined-oil pipeline in the nation, wants to develop the first "dedicated ethanol pipeline" from Iowa to New York City. It's seeking a loan guarantee of $3.5 billion through the Department of Energy

The National Assn. of Railroad Passengers is pushing for $10 billion for intercity passenger rail project

The travel industry wants a "multimillion-dollar marketing and public outreach effort to educate visitors about changing security policies and promote the U.S. as a destination," according to the Travel Industry Assn. The group is seeking a start-up federal loan of $10 million

The business community is seeking a series of tax breaks that it says will foster growth and return money to the federal Treasury. It favors, among other things, a tax rebate to middle-class taxpayers, a sizable reduction in the corporate capital gains tax and a sharp reduction in the tax rate on earnings that firms in the United States get from foreign subsidiaries

The housing industry wants all buyers to receive a tax credit for a home purchase and to have the government subsidize mortgage rates through a "buy-down" program lowering borrowing costs

The National Retail Federation proposes that sales tax holidays be held during March, July and October 2009, each lasting 10 days. The cost of this program would be $20 billion

The National Automobile Dealers Assn. is seeking a tax break encouraging more people to buy cars and a "cash for clunkers" program that helps people trade in older vehicles for new, more fuel-efficient ones

"The catfish industry is on the verge of collapse," said Marty Fuller of the Catfish Farmers of America, citing high feed prices and an increase of imports. About 6,000 jobs are at stake, mostly in economically depressed areas in states such as Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana. Officials are talking about seeking $50 million in aid as a stimulus.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Steering clear of the next Bernie Madoff

One of the firms which lost over a billion dollars of clients money in the Madoff ponzi scheme says it carries out “extensive” due diligence on the funds to which it allocates money, a process that can take as long as six months and cost $100,000. It also hires private investigators to run “extensive background checks” on fund managers, including searches on professional credentials, regulatory filings and bankruptcy, according to marketing documents dated September, 2008.

"Even if you tried, it might seem that Madoff would have been impossible to catch. But at least two warning signals flashed for anyone to see. First, Madoff’s accounting firm, Friehling & Horowitz in New City, New York, was a rinky-dink shop, as a simple Google search shows. The firm doesn’t have a Web page. I found it on a junky site that lists local businesses by type and address, along with the boilerplate comment, “rated as good by a New City citizen.” That’s an unlikely auditor for the $17 billion that Madoff claimed to have under management. When the fraud came to light, F&H turned out to be a tiny office which, neighbors said, wasn’t even open all the time. (The office didn’t answer its phone.) Second, Madoff held your securities (or what he claimed were your securities) in his own advisory firm. That’s not the way reliable advisers handle publicly traded investments. The custodian should always be a large, independent financial institution that reports cash flows and trading activity to you directly. When you invest new money, you should make out the check to that account."

Friday, December 26, 2008

Lawyers will gain the most

The Madoff debacle will once again prove profitable for only one group involved . . . lawyers.


Thursday, December 25, 2008

Merry Christmas to all

Merry Christmas to all of you.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Video - Lights on Foothill Blvd

The other night I set up my digital camera on a tripod and took a series of images and combined them into a video.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

J D Souther

Last night Toni and I saw one of the best concerts. J D Souther returned to LA for two performances, Friday at McCabes Guitar in Santa Monica where we saw him 20 years ago and last night at Largo at the Coronet on La Cienega in Hollywood. For two hours, JD told stories and sang his great songs which have been hits for Eagles, Dixie Chicks, Linda Rondstandt. With Jackson Browne, Irving Azoff, Timothy B. Schmidt and many other LA music scene "weights" in small intimate audience we felt very special sitting in the 4th row. As friends of mine know, I used to hang out with JD back in the day just as his solo career and Eagles were getting started. One night, I was invited by my high school mate, Alexa Bodrero to a small dinner party at her friend Linda Rondstadt's house near the Hollywood Bowl and I walked in to see JD there (realizing that they were a couple). He invited me to rehearsals and early recording sessions for his first solo LP.

Video - Chico and Harpo Marx

I've always loved the zaniness of the Marx brothers and here's a clip of Chico playing piano and Harpo playing the harp . . . . really good stuff.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Ponzi Schemes

Now is the Madoff affair. Every-time you invest in a partnership, you are taking a leap of faith that it's a legal entity which will return your investment to you. Most of the time, funds and partnerships are honest but occasionally they aren't and you never know until it's too late. Be careful out there. click here

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Building Highway 1 through Big Sur


Just inside the Monterey County line on the magnificent Big Sur coast lies a section of Highway 1 and during the 30's when it was constructed by convict labor from Alcatraz the convicts were housed in camps, one of which is Kirk Creek campground on a bluff overlooking some of the most incredible coastal views anywhere.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

John Jacob Astor - who was he?

The original founder of the Astor fortune was John Jacob Astor (1763-1884). John Jacob Astor was born in Walldorf, Duchy of Baden (Germany) from a Jewish bloodline. His original financial break came by carrying out a series of shady and crooked real estate deals in the N.Y. city area.

The next breakcame when two men who are now known to have been in the Illuminati gave John Jacob Astor a special government privilege. The two men were President Jefferson and Secretary Gallatin--both Illuminati members. The United States government had placed an embargo on all U.S. ships from sailing with goods in 1807. But Astor got special permission from these two men for his ship to sail with its cargo. His ship sailed and made close to a $200,000 profit in that day’s money. Astor strangely profited greatly from the War of 1812, which crippled almost all the other American shippers. Prior to 1817, John Jacob Astor entered into the fur trade and remained the biggest player in the fur trade until he got out of it in 1834. Over the years, he had managed to build up a monopoly. How he managed to push everyone else out is a good question.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Are you a fisherman?

Want to know where the Dept of Fish Game is planting trout in California? click here

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Great quote . . .

"Don Corleone is a man who insists on hearing bad news immediately."

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

The strange case of the Hudson Bay Company at Fort Yukon

When American surveyors got around to checking boundaries between Canada and US territories in 1869 they found that the Hudson Bay Company's post at Fort Yukon was in fact in Alaska! Kind of embarrassing so an agreement was worked out whereby the company and it's employees would simply move the store a few miles east to get them back onto Canadian soil . . . . ahem, the team of American's and Canadians did a good job of moving the post the number of miles calculated to accomplish the task but unfortunately they did it along the bank of the Porcupine River, not as the crow flies . . . the new store was setup and operating when along came a new set of surveyors who found they were still on American soil. What a mess . . . . so they moved again and left Old Rampart to begin again at Rampart House safely on Canadian soil. Learn more about the HBC click here

Monday, December 08, 2008

So you like beer eh?

I brew my own beer, yes I love homebrewed beer, nothing better and very cost efficient. For 5 gallons of amber pale ale, it cost me about $30. For a really good website all about beer, check out Here's to Beer click here

Unemployment Reality

The NY Times reports . . .

“The number of people out of the labor force — meaning that they were neither working nor looking for work and that the government did not consider them unemployed — jumped by 637,000 last month, the Labor Department said. The number of part-time workers who said they wanted full-time work — all counted as fully employed — rose by an additional 621,000.

Already, the share of men older than 20 with jobs was at its lowest point last month since 1983, and very close to the low point of the last 60 years. The share of women with jobs is lower than it was eight years ago, which never happened in previous decades.”

Noblesse Oblige

The English principle of having the moral obligation to act honorably and generously toward those around you, typically for noblemen . . . but it seems like a good idea to me for everyone to adopt the idea.

Sunday, December 07, 2008

Video - Laurel and Hardy clip another one

I think these guys were so funny, here they are figuring out how to be bandits.

Baltic Dry Index

Do you know what this is? Baltic Dry Index: (contracts to ship commodities over the seas in the future) may break 700 tomorrow, down from 12.6k. This is a very good barometer of future economic activity worldwide.

Check the chart of this very telling index click here

Saturday, December 06, 2008

Bob Dylan borrowed from the Carter Family library

The Carter Family Song "Wayworn Traveller" was covered by a young Bob Dylan, who wrote his own words to the melody and named it "Paths Of Victory".

The need for narratives (or stories)

Yes, in a sane world, the fundamentals would be more important than the sound bite. In a more sustainable world, this would be the case. Yet, in the world as it exists today and actually operates, this isn't so clearly or confidently answered.

Media, we know, emphasize 'the narrative'. "The Narrative", in turn, tends to demand reduction to sound bites -- and, also, tends to play out the story to its conclusion. In that sense, the 'narratives' preferred by media have a kind of 'scoop' quality to them -- the hope that those crafting the narrative have 'scooped' the future by telling us what the future will bring.

Unfortunately, narratives are not that helpful when trying to decide on what to do or how to formulate a plan. Why? Because you never know the motivation behind the narrative writer nor whether they have done the proper research to represent what really happened accurately. CBK

Friday, December 05, 2008

Word of the Year - - - - bailout

The word “bailout,” which shot to prominence amid the financial meltdown, was looked up so often at Merriam-Webster’s online dictionary that the publisher says it was an easy choice for its 2008 Word of the Year.

The velocity of money

The velocity of money (how fast a dollar moves through the economy) is slowing rather dramatically. It could fall another 10% and just get back to the average for the last 107 years. Given the growth in population, inflation, productivity, and other factors, the money supply will need to grow by 7% annually for the next several years to keep the economy at equilibrium. GDP (gross domestic product) is essentially the velocity of money times the supply of money. If the velocity slows down, the money supply needs to rise just to stay even.

Thursday, December 04, 2008

Tanta's passing

The blogger Tanta, an influential voice on the mortgage collapse, died Sunday morning in Columbus, Ohio. Tanta used her extensive knowledge of the loan industry to comment, castigate and above all instruct. Her fans ranged from the Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, an Op-Ed columnist for The New York Times who cited her in his blog, to analysts at the Federal Reserve, who cited her in a paper on “Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit.”

Click here

President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board

is to be headed by former Fed Chief Paul Volcker.

The WSJ noted today that the panel is “modeled on the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board established by then-President Dwight Eisenhower in 1956, at the height of the Cold War, when officials worried that that the existing bureaucratic structure was inadequate to help the U.S. keep pace with the Soviet threat. The financial crisis has drawn similar worries that the government isn’t properly organized to monitor and respond to modern financial markets.”

Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Rental Foreclosure info

If you're a renter and are wondering whether your landlord is in foreclosure you can get some help at this website Rental Foreclosure . . . click here

Monday, December 01, 2008

The art of receiving a gift

The first thing you can do to feel better when someone gives you a gift is to realize that the giver put effort into thinking of a gift for you by going through the process if finding and buying it, or perhaps in making the gift. Don’t feel guilty when you think of this! But realize that no one made the giver think of giving a gift and no one made her go out and get it. She chose to do this herself. Many people enjoy the whole gift giving process. So the whole time, up to and including the point when they gave you their gift, they’ve been doing something pleasant and enjoying themselves.

Next, remember that a gift is a way for someone to express appreciation or affection. People usually give a gift as a token of appreciation, or as a way to say they care or they love you. It feels good to tell people pleasant happy things like “I think you’re swell.” The giver is enjoying being able to share his feelings with you. Yes, just as it is sometimes hard to hear someone thank us for something we did, it can be hard to accept a gift. But while we might be feeling uncomfortable, that discomfort might be decreased if we remind ourselves that the other person is merely telling us they like and/or appreciate us.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

The National Debt Clock is ticking . . . or is it?

The National Debt Clock in New York City ran out of digits in September as the figure ticked over $10,000,000,000,000.

Friday, November 28, 2008

on the drug war front - - - another failure

Mexico accused it's former drug czar last week of taking $450K from a cartel he was supposed to destroy, going public with a scandal that deals a serious blow to the country's US backed drug war. Noe Ramirez is the highest ranking law enforcement official detained yest as part of a Mexico's sweeping effort to weed out officials who allegedly shared police information with violent drug smugglers.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Happy Thanksgiving


Once again we enjoy a proud family tradition in America by gathering with family and friends for great food and give thanks for all that we have and the special privilege of living in the USA.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Libya is becoming a democracy

Libya says it intends to open a new chapter in relations with the US by investing some of it's $100 billion sovereign wealth fund in US companies and sending thousands of students to study in the US. Hmmmmmm why does this sound . . . strange? Neither of those activities sounds like anything other than self serving. The son of the one man ruler of Libya said he expects a constitution providing for democratic elections to be adopted by September 2009 (the 40th anniversary of the 1969 revolution). Blah Blah Blah Blah

Monday, November 24, 2008

Video - Laurel and Hardy clip

In this clip, Stan shows Oliver how to play Neezy Eezy Nozy . . . .

GM and Tiger split

The path to salvation is truly underway at General Motors, today the beleaguered auto company searching for any way to save some cash severed it's relationship with Tiger Woods (or was it Tiger who severed his relationship with a tired old deadbeat company that can't compete anymore? . . . you decide).

Video - Lawrence Lessig on The Problem

Lawrence Lessig, professor of Law at Stanford University during an interview with Charlie Rose last week described the state of the US Economy and here is the video

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Downey Savings and Loan - - - - GONE!

When we first bought a home in Manhattan Beach in 1976, Downey S & L was our lender. Back then we used to send our monthly check to . . . . . . Downey S & L. They survived through the S&L crisis of the 80's but not the 2008 one. US Bancorp has taken over Downey S & L. It was the 23rd largest in the US with deposits of $9.7 billion. This brings to "22" the number of bank failures this year.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Dividend Yields

The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is now greater than the yield on the 10-year Treasury. That hasn’t happened since 1958.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Continuing unemployment claims are now at roughly 3.5 million individuals. Let's assume that each week we lose an average of 400,000 jobs (last week the government reported 540,000). That is 20 million jobs a year. That means the US economy for the last year has created 16.5 million jobs (very roughly). So there is some robustness in the economy even as we slide deeper into recession.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Late Day Rally attributed to beer . . . . BUD that is

Index funds, which represent about 10 percent of the stock market, ``got $5 billion from owning BUD.'' BUD is the ticker symbol for Anheuser-Busch, brewer of Budweiser beer. ``The stock that was added was a $500 million weight, so about $4.5 billion has to be put to work,'' said Buek. ``That money was spent across the other 499 names. To perfectly track the close, you'd want to put the $4.5 billion to work on the close.''

Monday, November 17, 2008

Flat Tax, Tort Reform and Term Limits

4 years ago Bill Fleckenstein wrote . . . "I think the party that has won, in this case the Republicans, might want to be careful what they wish for, in that both the stock and real-estate bubbles will unwind on their watch, with them in full control of the House, the Senate, the presidency and the governorships.

"Perhaps we'll all get lucky and the Republican Party will decide to pursue a flat tax, tort reform, and term limits -- the three major areas of reform which I believe could help the country become more competitive and help extricate us from the horrible fix that I see us in. However, if they continue the pork-barrel politics of the last four years, I would think that next go-round, the Republicans will be bounced from office after people's hopes are dashed in the upcoming economic turmoil."

Friday, November 14, 2008

The Nina

Christopher Columbus favorite sailing ship, La Nina was lost many centuries ago but one has been rebuilt to exact specifications and is touring. The ship is moored here in Morro Bay for two weeks but you can learn more about her here

Common Sense Quotient

Each month Bill Gross (PIMCO) posts his investment outlook at the PIMCO website, it's mandatory reading at the Kincaid Hardwood Company office for all staff. This month's is good for anyone just starting out in there career . . . . click here

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Credit Mobilier - the first great lobbying effort

Credit Mobilier was a company organized by George Francis Train, the vice-president in charge of publicity for the Union Pacific Railroad Company for the construction of the westward portion of the transcontinental railroad. It was the first limited liability company. Shares of CM were given away to congressmen to influence their votes in favor of the UP in it's efforts. The scandal broke and the collapse of CM caused great financial losses.

click here for more

after reading Stephen Ambrose's "Nothing Like It in the World" I wrote the song CPRR, you can hear it at this link click here then click on CPRR (Central Pacific Rail Road)

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Video - Fargo favorite scene

The movie Fargo is iconic for many reasons but one is the portrayal of the Minnesota/North Dakota culture. No scene in the movie does it better than this one . . . . . enjoy.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Veterans Day - show your appreciation to a vet

Take the time to email, write or say thanks to a veteran today. click here for the history of this celebration and ask someone else to do so too.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Wisdom Book

My friend Dan Dominy sent me this link and it's a winner click here

Friday, November 07, 2008

Back in 2005 I posted . . .

I was reviewing some of my oldest posts to this blog and found this from February 2005 . . . .

Today I noted with great interest that CALPERS has decided that it's time to "cash in on real estate profits". They are liquidating 207 industrial buildings, 97 shopping centers and 22 office properties. We're talking some massive selling. The other side of the coin is that all of the property is being gobbled up by investors dying to get into real estate. Now this doesn't having anything to do with housing but it is an interesting occurrence.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Yes We Can

My favorite part of Obama's speech last night . . .


Good Morning on the day after . . . nice thoughts from my friend Steve See

"Either we have hope within us or we don't; it is a dimension of the soul, and it's not essentially dependent on some particular observation of the world or estimate of the situation. Hope is not prognostication. It is an orientation of the spirit, an orientation of the heart. . . . Hope, in this deep and powerful sense, is not the same as joy that things are going well, or willingness to invest in enterprises that are obviously headed for early success, but rather, an ability to work for something because it is good, not just because it stands a chance to succeed. . . . Hope is definitely not the same thing as optimism. It is not the conviction that something will turn out well, but the certainty that something makes sense, regardless of how it turns out. . . . It is also this hope, above all, which gives us the strength to live and continually try new things, even in conditions that seem as hopeless as ours do, here and now."

- Vaclav Havel

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail

Many of you know I'm re reading Hunter Thompson's classic from the '72 campaign during which he covered McGovern, Lindsay and Muskie. Here's a funny excerpt . . . .

"They ran a very tight ship. Nixon rarely appeared, and when he did nobody in the press corps ever got within ten feet of him, except now and then by special appointment for cautious interviews. Getting assigned to cover Nixon in '68 was like being sentencedd to six months in a Holiday Inn. It never occurred to me that anything could be worse than getting stuck on another Nixon campaign, so it came as a definite shock to find that hanging around Florida with Ed Muskie was even duller and more depressing than traveling with Evil Dick himself."

Monday, November 03, 2008

unfunded liability on defined-benefit pension plans

There is one more shoe to drop, and it is a biggie. Stock portfolios, individual retirement accounts and 401(k)s have taken dives. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is down 35% since Jan. 1. There is one more major component of this country's wealth that will not be reported until late February or early March: the unfunded liability on defined-benefit pension plans.

According to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.'s Web site, 44 million Americans are counting on collecting retirement payments from defined-benefit pension plans. The maximum payment you can get from them if your corporation cannot meet its obligation to you is $51,744. If you are an airline pilot, engineer, senior vice president or chief financial officer thinking you will get a $75,000- to $150,000-a-year pension, you may be in for a rude awakening.

There's no reason to think that your pension plan hasn't lost as much as the stock market. From the estimates I've been reading, by the year's end there will be a $200 billion to $250 billion unfunded pension liability that will have to be made up. That will be $250 billion that will be sucked from net earnings of those companies that last and recover, and smaller pensions for the employees that work for a company that won't make it through this recession.

Do not look for the economy to recover until this $250 billion problem has been solved and you begin to see increases in gross domestic product and corporate earnings. The worst may be over, but I don't expect a meaningful recovery before at least the end of next year's second quarter.

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Bill Fleckenstein's take on the future of jobs . . .

it isn't pretty but I believe he's really onto something. I have been asking for a long time "what is going to drive the next economy?"

To review the point that I made in Chapter 7 of my book "Greenspan's Bubbles" and in many columns: In the past expansion, economic growth was almost entirely about real estate. Gross-domestic-product growth, excluding mortgage-equity extraction, was almost nonexistent. In addition, when you consider that 30% to 40% of all jobs were real-estate-oriented, it's clear how hollow the economy is liable to be going forward.

Considering the capital destruction and the credit contraction now under way, I have a hard time seeing where the new jobs will come from to handle all the layoffs that are going to take place. Given that lots of marginal businesses have survived on consumers' wild spending, many of them will not make it as folks retrench aggressively. That's on top of all the carnage in anything related to real estate or finance. click here for more

Saturday, November 01, 2008

Micro Credit

Let's hear it for Muhammad Yunus, founder of Grameen Bank in India and one of the originators of the micro credit movement.

you can learn about micro credit here

and Grameen Bank here

Friday, October 31, 2008

Happy Martin Luther Day

Yeah, I know it's Halloween but it's also the day that Martin Luther nailed up his 95 theses on the church to let the Catholic Pope (Holy See) know that selling indulgences was a bad thing among others. The Reformation began shortly thereafter.

We do Luther a great disservice if we see him today as a destroyer and an anarchist. Rather, history shows us a man deeply concerned with the state of his own soul and equally concerned over a Church that had become too encrusted with financial and political concerns to do fully the work of God. It was for this reason that Luther sought public discussion on the matters that seemed to him as a cleric most to defile the Church and to leave it most open to ridicule and scorn. He drew up ninety-five distinct points that he found to be in need of amendment and concerning each of which he desired a time of public debate. Then, in a stroke of genius that would do honor to a contemporary media mogul, Luther took his ninety-five propositions or theses to church with him on October 31.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Lower interest rates . . . . hmmmm

Well, the Fed has lowered interest rates again . . . down to 1%. That's great for borrowing costs assuming there is someone out there who wants to loan you money but the bigger question is, "Wasn't it low interest rates that created the subprime/financial meltdown in the first place?" Back in the day when Greenspan kept interest rates really low for a long time, not everyone was happy. Investors in bonds weren't. So the financial engineers started to create instruments that would increase the yields . . . . yes, derivatives, etc. You know how that's turned out.

I just think it's interesting that the solution to the current economic problem on one hand is the hair of the dog.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Goldman Sachs bonus pool

In spite of a implosion in their stock price and financial ruins all around, Goldman Sachs partners are getting ready to become enriched once more . . . . Goldman's profit through the first nine months of its fiscal year was $4.44 billion, down 47 percent from last year's record. The company has set aside $11.4 billion for compensation and benefits this year, down 32 percent from the same time in 2007.

The Real Economy and the Financial Economy

The recent crisis did reveal very clearly about one aspect of how the world works. There are in essence two economies: the real economy, where real goods and services are produced and consumed, and the financial economy, where assets are swapped for investment or speculative purposes. These two economies interact and affect each other, but each requires a unique regulatory framework to support. While government intervention in the real economy is almost always bad, government intervention in the financial economy is almost always necessary. For this reason, I fully agree that we need more regulation in the financial economy, as long as we are careful not to let it spill over to the real economy.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Noam Chomsky on risk taking

on Sept 19, 2008 Chomsky said this to the BBC interviewer . . . .

Markets have inherent and well-known inefficiencies. One factor is failure to calculate the costs to those who do not participate in transactions. These "externalities" can be huge. That is particularly true for financial institutions.

Their task is to take risks, calculating potential costs for themselves. But they do not take into account the consequences of their losses for the economy as a whole.

Hence the financial market "underprices risk" and is "systematically inefficient," as John Eatwell and Lance Taylor wrote a decade ago, warning of the extreme dangers of financial liberalization and reviewing the substantial costs already incurred - and also proposing solutions, which have been ignored.

The threat became more severe when the Clinton administration repealed the Glass-Steagall act of 1933, thus freeing financial institutions "to innovate in the new economy," in Clinton's words -- and also "to self-destruct, taking down with them the general economy and international confidence in the US banking system," financial analyst Nomi Prins adds.

The unprecedented intervention of the Fed may be justified or not in narrow terms, but it reveals, once again, the profoundly undemocratic character of state capitalist institutions, designed in large measure to socialise cost and risk and privatize profit, without a public voice.

That is, of course, not limited to financial markets. The advanced economy as a whole relies heavily on the dynamic state sector, with much the same consequences with regard to risk, cost, profit, and decisions, crucial features of the economy and political system.

to read more about Noam Chomsky click here


The Wild Trout Section on the Kern River


If you ever get a chance to hike up to this amazing stretch of river, do it. Drive through Kernville all the way up to the Johnsondale bridge, park your car and hike on the east side of the river for about an hour and you'll get to this great fishing area.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Where we came from . . .

Genetic evidence suggests that all humans alive today, despite their apparent variety, are descended from a very small population, perhaps between 1,000 and 10,000 breeding pairs about 70,000 years ago.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Oracle's supreme egotist . . . Larry Ellison

Oracle Corp. co-founder Larry Ellison, the fourth-richest man in America, is drawing criticism from some shareholders for a $72-million pay package that is 12 times bigger than the median pay of chief executives in the technology industry.

Ellison, who proposed the 38% raise and won approval from a committee of board members, is now the second-best-paid CEO of a public company in the U.S. He received about $1.7 million less than Merrill Lynch & Co. chief John Thain did in 2007. Oracle's market value is almost three times Merrill's.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

State of the takeover market

Flash memory maker SanDisk is down 32% after Samsung pulled its $26 per share, or $5.9 billion, bid. SanDisk had previously rejected the offer as too low. Samsung now believes the offer too high given SanDisk's weak third quarter and uncertain outlook.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Ken Kesey on the 60's

"You never get over being a hippie. All that old stuff from the '60s still applies. When somebody accuses me of being a liberal, I say 'thank you. Being merciful, gentle and kind became subversive. What is the other side of that coin? Being cruel? . . . Here's what I've been telling kids who ask if I have a message for today's youth: Be excellent to each other and party on!'"

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Presidents and the Economy

let's take a snarky look at the past few Presidents, and see if we can't figure out the secret to their performance numbers. My best guess is good (or bad) timing:

Bush II: Came into office after 18 year bull market and crash; Arrived after major deregulation (Glass Steagel, Commodities Futures Modernization act) were already fait accomplis, contributing mightily to the credit crisis

Clinton: Arrived post recession, mid 82-00 bull market. Greenspan Put came about in 1997. Got out before most of the wreckage took place.

Bush I: Bad timing everywhere: Recession was ending during re-election campaign, but not yet felt by election data yet. Mistimed the war, patriotic fervor was cooling before re-election.

Reagan: Came into office at the tail end of a 16 year Bear market.

Carter: Arrived post Vietnam, Post Watergate. Malaise. Inflation, oil crisis were rampant.

That smells too much like dumb luck to me.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Making a Fortune from luck, then going about losing

Ask David Weyrich if the thinks he was the one who made the fortune and he'll probably tell you he did but all he really did is benefit from luck . . . huge luck. How? Well, he was born into a family that started and built a huge billboard business and sold it. So, of course, he thinks he's pretty good at business so he starts developing real estate, starts a charter airline business, takes on a ton of debt, etc. and now it's all coming home to roost. He is in the process of trying to sell assets to pay off loans and probably will lose most of his fortune . . . . read more click here

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Separation of Church and State - - - Sarah Palin style

Alaskan Governor Palin is not averse to allowing the Alaskan taxpayers to pick up tabs for her to go off and make appearances at religious gatherings. According to records, she and her family have been the beneficiaries of more than $13,000 in attending 10 religious events and meetings with Christian pastors since she took office in 2006; she has also billed the state $3,022 for the cost of attending Christian gathersings exclusively to Assembly of God in Wisilla and Juneau. Guess what? She's not alone in this type of behavior, it's happening everywhere.

Not everyone kept what we think they made

Here's an example of one individual who lost big . . . .

XL Capital Ltd. Chairman Brian O'Hara said he was forced to sell about 80 percent of his stake in the Bermuda-based insurer to meet margin calls.

``The forced sale was due to the precipitous drop in XL's share price last week,'' O'Hara said in a statement distributed by PR Newswire today.


``I had pledged those shares as collateral to secure a personal loan used to fund purchases of XL shares in order to avoid the expiration of certain options,'' O'Hara said. ``The sale in no way reflects a lack of confidence in XL's current and future prospects.''

Monday, October 13, 2008

Social Security investing in the S&P 500

If there ever was a time for the SSA to go private, now;s the time to do it. What if it took 10% of it's assets and bought Spyders here?

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Ultimate comment

``I don't even want to imagine what might happen'' if the markets react negatively, Klaus-Peter Mueller, head of the German banking association, said earlier today in Washington before the blueprint was unveiled. The market response may be something ``we haven't seen at any stage in our lifetimes.''

Saturday, October 11, 2008

The Ultimate Fallback Postion

an announcement from the G7 Meeting that there is an consensus plan for dealing with the financial crisis but here is the last paragraph of the statement . . . . let's hope it doesn't go there.

No G7 official was sure the plan would work, so deep is the global financial crisis. If it does not, the next steps would be one of two nuclear options: either to guarantee all liabilities of banks, effectively nationalizing the financial system, or for governments to seek to bypass financial institutions by lending direct to companies and households. Officials hope they will not have to contemplate these options.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Comments from Henry Paulson on the G7 meeting

The G-7 will ``provide liquidity to markets, strengthen financial institutions, protect savers and enforce investor protections'' under a ``coherent framework,'' Policy makers will pursue ``robust international partnership and cooperation.''

This relieves me a little but the sooner this gets going the better.

Oil

OPEC will need to reduce production not because the price is currently too low but because there is not enough demand . . . . are we looking at a world wide recession?

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Another comment on predicting (or looking forward)

As observers of historical results, we have the advantage of knowing the end of the story. You don’t know the end of the story when you are in the action. We should not impute the clarity we have looking back, when our need is to look forward.

Credit Crisis - Financial Meltdown in simple terms

from Barry Ritholz at Big Picture blog

To repeat my prior arguments, the proximate cause of the Housing crisis were 1) Ultra-low rates; and 2) Abdication of traditional lending standards, thanks to 3) originators ability to resell mortgages for securitization purposes, and therefore not have to worry about loan defaults.

The credit crisis was caused by 1) the above securitized mortgage paper, that was 2) rated triple AAA by Moody's and Standard & Poors, which then 3) Which was then "insured" by credit default swaps (CDS) -- the unreserved for, shadow insurance products whose exemption was made possible by the Commodities Futures Modernization Act. That legislation exempted these derivatives from any supervision or regulation. The lack of reserve requirements is why there is now $62 trillion in CDS, many of which will never pay their counter parties the promised insurance.

If you are going to blame Fannie/Freddie/CRA, or George Bush or Barney Frank, you are missing the big picture.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

What does the future financial world look like?

From the Financial Times in London . . . . Take a look here

Saturday, October 04, 2008

Bail Out Legislation in detail

If you'd like to read the entire legislation, click here

Friday, October 03, 2008

is the S&P still overpriced?????

The S&P 500, down 25 percent this year, still trades for almost 21 times profit from the past 12 months. Only four of 48 developed and emerging nations tracked by MSCI Inc. -- Switzerland, Jordan, Colombia and Morocco -- have a higher price-to-earnings ratio, according to data compiled by Bloomberg yesterday.

Can't Take My Eyes Off of You

Just saw "Jersey Boys" while in Toronto. Great show and the music of the Four Seasons was then and now pretty good. Researching Bob Crewe and Bob Gaudio I found this . . . In 1999, when the US performing rights and royalties organization BMI (Broadcast Music Incorporated) announced its Top 100 Songs of the Century, Can't Take My Eyes Off You landed in the top ten with six million airplays or. BMI calculates one million continuous performances of a song of the average length (3 minutes) as representing 5.7 years of continuous airplay.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Money Market Funds closing / / / / yes

Putnam Investments LLC closed its $12.3 billion institutional Putnam Prime Money Market Fund yesterday and plans to return all cash to investors.

The fund, which was valued yesterday at $1 a share, experienced ``significant redemption pressure,'' the Boston- based company said in a statement. A drop below $1 a share, known as breaking the buck, would have exposed investors to losses.

The fund had no exposure to securities issued by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Washington Mutual Inc. or American International Group Inc., the company said.

Reserve Primary Fund, the oldest U.S. money-market fund, on Sept. 16 became the first in 14 years to break the buck. Investors pulled 60 percent of their money from the $62.6 billion fund on Sept. 15 and 16 before withdrawals were delayed.

Putnam is a unit of Canadian insurer Great-West Lifeco Inc.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

VIX indicates a bottom is very near

Investors paid up for protection from further losses. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index jumped 20 percent to 36.22, the highest closing level since October 2002. The VIX measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500.

Buchon Brothers update

Jim and I have a website now where you can learn about us, our music and upcoming gigs on the Central Coast click here

Monday, September 15, 2008

Don't you love these downgrades???? Their timing is exquisit . . .

Standard & Poor's downgraded the ratings of Washington Mutual Inc. today (2.00, -0.73, -26.7%) and Washington Mutual Bank because of increased market turmoil. Now get real, this company once sold for as much as $47 during the last two years and NOW it gets downgraded?

Capitulation?

Probably not . . . As of Monday evening, for example, the HSNSI (Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index) stood at minus 33.2%. Though that suggests that the average short-term timer is bearish, he is not nearly as bearish as on past occasions of capitulation. The all-time low for the HSNSI, for example, is minus 81.8%--or nearly 50 percentage points lower.

Lehman owes . . . .

New York-based Lehman, which filed for protection from creditors today, owes its 10 largest unsecured creditors more than $157 billion, according to the Chapter 11 filing today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York. The largest single creditor is Aozora Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, with $463 million in a bank loan. Other top creditors include Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., owed $382 million, and a Citigroup Inc. unit based in Hong Kong, owed an estimated $275 million, according to the filing.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Cubes

an fun site to just amuse yourself click here

Saturday, September 06, 2008

Aaron Sorkin on the internet . . .

"Nothing has done more to make us dumber or meaner than the anonymity of the Internet."

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Buchon Brothers music gets better


Jim Thurman and I, The Buchon Brothers, played 11 songs last Saturday night at a local club in San Luis Obispo (8 of the song were original compositions) and received rave reviews from the audience. It was the first time we've played in front of a serious audience without music stands and we did well, hitting 90% of our marks. Click here and you'll be taken to my website where you can hear two songs from last night's show craigkincaid.com/music

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

The Journey of Mankind . . . click here

Monday, September 01, 2008

FDIC needs some bailing out?

Yep, another financial "biggy" is having problems . . .

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said her agency might have to borrow money from the Treasury Department to see it through an expected wave of bank failures. She said the borrowing could be needed to handle short-term cash-flow pressure brought on by reimbursements to depositors after bank failures.

The FDIC issued a report showing that the number of financial institutions on its so-called problem list rose to 117 from 90 which were reported at the end of the first quarter.

That's an increase of 30% in three months, and things look to get worse before they get better. The number of banks on the list is the most visible thing to consumers, but the amount of assets held by those problem institutions is more troubling still. The total assets of institutions on the problem list tripled. That means some pretty big players are in the additions.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Obama's promises . . .

Is someone keeping track of the Presidential campaign promises? While I didn't watch all of last nights speech in Denver, I did hear many promises of what Mr. Obama is going to do for the American taxpayer and citizen (not always the same). But if he wins, who will be holding his feet to the fire if he doesn't fulfill these promises . . . . . blaming congress won't be an excuse in my book.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Housing market at a bottom ????

well, probably not but let's look back a few years and see what what was being said in December 2006 -

"The worst of the U.S. housing slump is over, according to the National Association of Realtors . ."

This group is arguably the most optimistic bunch of bozos. I heard some guy say today on CNBC (during the 60 seconds I watched it) about Las Vegas . . . . "The market is great!" oh yeah, he did follow that with "unless you're a seller". Brilliant.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Paul Anka rants

Listening to NPR, Fresh Air's Terry Gross' interview with Paul Anka I learned about this recording of Paul Anka really giving it to his band . . . click here to listen to it

It's called The Guys Get Shirts . . .

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Understanding Graduates

The graduate with a science degree asks,' Why does it work?'
The graduate with an engineering degree asks, 'How does it work?'
The graduate with an accounting degree asks, 'How much will it cost?'
The graduate with an arts degree asks, 'Do you want fries with that?'

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Happy Birthday to Vic Harber

I am reminded that my brother in law, Victor Harber is also celebrating his birthday today.

Happy Birthday to my brother Andy

Andy, now 62, on the left with me while we were enjoying a cerveza in Mazatlan. He's a great guy, good father and loving husband to his wife Helene.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Appraisal Fraud

It's not new. No it's been happening ever since we bought our first house in 1976 and probably for as long as appraisals have been required for qualifying for a real estate loan (refinance or new). More and more, the current housing slump is being laid at the door of appraisal fraud. Amazing that anyone would believe that there wasn't something amiss when the appraiser is being paid by the lender.

I found this article from CNN Money from 2005 where people were testifying in congress about fraud but guess what? No one did anything about it. Here's the last line of the article -

"The cumulative effect of appraisal fraud is you may have investors holding mortgage debt that's backed by real estate worth less than they think it is," said Martin. "It's a train wreck waiting to happen."


No one did anything. read more here

How people got into financial trouble

most people believe they must do something to have something to be something

The average person thinks you win the wealth game by acquiring a lot of things. If you have a bigger house and a more expensive car then you are considered to be wealthy. What happens is, the average person attempts to acquire "more and better" by getting deeper and deeper into debt. This is exactly the opposite of what I mean by wealth, but people are psychologically driven to do it.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Real Inflation

Ever wonder what the actual CPI is? Here's a chart that show what todays CPI would be using the same basket of goods and services of 1990. Wow, it's 8% more than the "official" rate the government tells us today. Learn more at Shadowstats.com

Friday, August 15, 2008

Troube right here in ________ City

In New York State, the 16 largest banks sent taxes totaling $5 million in the most recent reporting period; that compares with $173 million from the same period a year ago.

Taxes paid are down an astonishing 97%!

And this is going on throughout the United States . . . . ouch!

"It will be a number of years before Wall Street starts paying taxes again,'' the mayor said at a press conference yesterday in Manhattan. "They will carry forward all of those losses.''



Thursday, August 14, 2008

The Way of the World

From Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist and bestselling author Ron Suskind comes a startling look at how America lost its way and at the nation’s struggle, day by day, to reclaim the moral authority upon which its survival depends. From the White House to Downing Street, from the fault-line countries of South Asia to the sands of Guantánamo, Suskind offers an astonishing story that connects world leaders to the forces waging today’s shadow wars and to the next generation of global citizens. Tracking down truth and hope within the Beltway and far beyond it, Suskind delivers historic disclosures with this emotionally stirring and strikingly original portrait of the post-9/11 world. In a sweeping, propulsive, and multilayered narrative, The Way of the World investigates how America relinquished the moral leadership it now desperately needs to fight the real threat of our era: a nuclear weapon in the hands of terrorists. Truth, justice, and accountability become more than mere words in this story. Suskind shows where the most neglected dangers lie in the story of "The Armageddon Test" —a desperate gamble to send undercover teams into the world’s nuclear black market to frustrate the efforts of terrorists trying to procure weapons-grade uranium. In the end, he finally reveals for the first time the explosive falsehood underlying the Iraq War and the entire Bush presidency. While the public and political realms struggle, The Way of the World simultaneously follows an ensemble of characters in America and abroad who are turning fear and frustration into a desperate—and often daring—brand of human salvation.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Sidney Pollock's favorite line

Sidney Pollock used this line in 3 different films :

You think not getting caught in a lie is the same thing as telling the truth.

Monday, August 11, 2008

quotes from Jamie Dimon, CEO JP Morgan

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.

Buying a house and buying a house on fire are two different things (referring to Bear Stearns).

Problems don't age well.

Saturday, August 09, 2008

Gaining a little control

"Wear your best for your execution and stand dignified. Your last recourse against randomness is how you act — if you can’t control outcomes, you can control the elegance of your behavior. You will always have the last word."

Nassim Taleb

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Golden Retrievers in the Park

There were over 100 Goldens in the park click here

This is a picture of us a few years ago with Brutus, one of two goldens we had for 14 years. The other was Brittany.

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

the World Food Crisis

the entire system of Western food production is in need of radical change according to the following books :
Stuffed and Starved: The Hidden Battle for the World Food System - Raj Patel
Bottomfeeder: How to Eat Ethically in a World of Vanishing Seafood - Taras Gresco
In Defense of Food: An Eater's Manifesto - Michael Pollan
The End of Food - Thomas Pawlick
Fast Food Nation - Eric Schlosser

Monday, August 04, 2008

Jack Elam

He once described the career of a character actor. It went like this: "Who's Jack Elam? Get me Jack Elam. Get me a Jack Elam type. Get me a young Jack Elam. Who's Jack Elam?"

Saturday, August 02, 2008

Blowininthewind.org


On a hillside between Cayucos and Cambria heading north to Big Sur you will find a memorial to the 4000 soldiers killed in Iraq . . . learn more click here

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Small Business in Californio land

Daniel Weintraub (Sac Bee) reports that 90% of all businesses in CA employ 5 or less workers; there are 2,600,000 sole proprietorships in CA now!

Steve McQueen on Charlie Manson's death list

One week before the Woodstock Music Festival kicked off in Bethel, New York, McQueen had been invited for dinner at the Roman Polanski-Sharon Tate home in the Hollywood hills by mutual friend and hairdresser-to the-star Jay Sebring. An unexpected rendezvous with a mystery woman prompted him to cancel his appointment. In the wake of the Manson Family Tate-LaBianca murders at, respectively, 10050 Cielo Drive and 3301 Waverly Drive, McQueen would later learn that he was accorded the kind of priority billing for which he was unprepared: he topped Charles Manson's celebrity death list. Thereafter he carried a concealed weapon.

Monday, July 28, 2008

The guy who made billions on subprime

On Wall Street, the losers in the collapse of the housing market are legion. The biggest winner looks to be John Paulson, a little-known hedge fund manager who smelled trouble two years ago. Read about Paulson Company here

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Magnificent Seven film trivia

Mexican censors required the peasants to always be wearing clean clothes.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Money is . . .

Money is the root of all evil... If a man is after money, he's money mad; if he keeps it, he's a capitalist; if he spends it, he's a playboy; if he doesn't get it, he's a never-do-well; if he doesn't try to get it, he lacks ambition. If he gets it without working for it; he's a parasite; and if he accumulates it after a life time of hard work, people call him a fool who never got anything out of life.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Songs of the Century

For a look at the great songs of the 21 st century (I'm not sure how these were picked) click here

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

NASA Air Carrier Survey analyzed by CAPBOR

NASA Air Carrier Survey

On News Year's Eve 2007, NASA released a heavily redacted "report" regarding an $11 million survey they ran between 2001 and 2004. The data were released in formats virtually impossible to analyze.

NASA spokesmen said they can't see why the flying public would be interested in this data. Why would taxpayers NOT be interested in these results? So CAPBOR cross-referenced the questions and answers from section B and also created a spreadsheet with section A and section B data.

The first of our releases to the public was the following document that cross-referenced the results of the survey with the questions asked. Keep in mind this is a small sample of pilots that were surveyed. Notable results:
  • 168 reports of landing an aircraft without getting clearance.
  • 1528 reports where aircraft diverted to an alternate airport or returned to land because of an aircraft equipment problem.
  • Hundreds of reports where aircraft had uncommanded movements of rudders, ailerons, spoilers, speedbrakes, etc, in flight!
  • Hundreds of reports of in-flight smoke, fumes and fire in engines, flight decks, passenger cabins, etc.
  • 2339 reports where Air Traffic Control refused to requests to change course due to severe weather.
  • Over four thousand reports where reserve fuel was required to stay flying.
read everything . . . click here

Monday, July 21, 2008

Anglers are important to California economy

1/30/08

San Francisco, CA - A report released today finds that anglers in California generate billions of dollars in direct and indirect revenue in the state, which supplies an important economic boost, particularly for rural communities. The report also recommends that a high priority be given to habitat protection and maintenance, which would increase present and future economic benefits to the state's economy.

The report was conducted by Carolyn Alkire of Environmental Economics and Policy Consulting and was released by the advocacy group California Trout to develop a deeper understanding of the factors that determine fishing's economic effects, expanding the study of this important relationship for the benefit of decision-makers and policy-makers in the state.

"We knew that fishing was important to California's economy, but now we know just how important," said Brian Stranko, CEO of California Trout. "The findings of this report make it abundantly clear that people all over the state depend on the financial infusion caused by recreational fishing, and that this beneficial effect could be increased even further by better protecting and maintaining the streams and surrounding habitats that make fishing possible. Also, by encouraging young people to get involved in fishing, the people of California can maximize the long-term value of this healthy, sustainable activity."

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Christ Evert Lloyd Mill Norman

While watching the Open Championship and Greg Norman surge to lead this morning and watching Chris Evert (the new Mrs. Norman) interviewed I wondered what happened between her and Andy Mill . . . . . so I found this -

Their divorce was finalized on 12/04/2006. Citing irreconcilable differences, Chris agreed to pay Andy cash and securities amounting to $7 million. Andy will also keep their $4 million vacation home in Aspen, Colorado, a Porsche, and other automobiles.

OK, now I know and I hope Christ and Greg are happy for evermore.

WALLE

If you want a very enjoyable movie experience, don't miss the latest from Pixar . . . . for that matter, just go see every Pixar movie and you won't be disappointed.

catch the trailer to WALLE here

Thursday, July 17, 2008

The Open Championship

Here's the link to the Open Championship . . . . . at Royal Birkdale click here

Monday, July 14, 2008

You think you've made bad investments?

Three months ago, with Washington Mutual's shares at $13.15, Forth Worth, Texas-based TPG and a group of investors agreed to buy $7 billion of stock at $8.75, a 33 percent discount. The stock slumped 35 percent yesterday to $3.23, leaving TPG's investment down 63 percent. TPG also has warrants to buy 57.1 million shares at $10.06 a piece.

Oh heck, it'll probably work out . . . .

Do we have a smaller government?

I keep asking my demopulican friends about the number one concern for our great nation . . . . is the government getting smaller or larger? George W. Bush ran on the "I'll reduce the size of government" pledge way back in 2000 . . . he failed on that pledge within months of taking office and we all know how much government has grown over the last 8 years . . . . . so it shouldn't be any surprise to us neysayers when we see that now the government is going to be the defacto holder of last resort for half of the Trillion dollar outstanding mortgage porfolio held by Freddie and Fannie by "helping" them through their cashflow problems. Now, mind you, the government says this is only a temporary thing . . . . . yeah, right. We heard that language before haven't we.

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Let me introduce you to Phil Gramm . . . .

in case you've been in a vacuum lately, he's Republican McCain's chief economic adviser but more importantly he has a very important job at UBS (which has been just killed by bad investments while Phil's been working there), read this story in Slate Magazine and then think about how you would feel having this guy as the Treasury Secretary . . . . click here

Friday, July 11, 2008

more pain for the financials

IndyMac Bancorp Inc. became the biggest casualty of the subprime mortgage crisis on Friday, as federal regulators shut down the troubled Pasadena, Calif.-based savings bank in one of the largest U.S. bank failures ever.

Sir Isaac Newton and sunlight

Sir Isaac Newton dismantled the age old deity of sunlight when he let sunlight pass through a prism. OK, he didn't discover color but until then everyone thought that sunlight was white and was the central element in divine creation. This was in 1666. Newton called his discovery the "oddest if not the most considerable detection which hath hitherto been made in the operations of nature."

Thursday, July 10, 2008

The Longest Day


Since we returned from France and our visit to Normandy to see the D Day beaches I've been wanting to see the 1962 film "The Longest Day" and it was on AMC two days ago. What is one remarkable element about the film is that the assault at Pointe du Hoc was shot on location! You can see my photos of the region at my Flickr site, click here

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

CraigKincaid.com

craigkincaid.com . . . . check it out

Monday, July 07, 2008

Counterknowledge

If you're like me and think that there's a lot of hogwash out there masquerading as information then you'll enjoy reading "Counterknowledge: how we surrendered to conspiracy theories, quack medicine, bogus science and fake history" by Damian Thompson click here

Saturday, July 05, 2008

do you know what a SPAC is?

Special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, sell units, usually one share of common stock and one warrant, and use the money to buy a closely held company. They're also called blank- check companies because they don't disclose targets before their IPOs. One recently created by investor Thomas Hicks is buying 66% of Graham Packaging Holdings Co. from the Blackstone Group. This type of transaction is new to Wall Street but allows investors in LBO's (leveraged buyouts) to exit their investment. Typically this is done in an IPO but that market is dead now.

Thursday, July 03, 2008

Captain Corelli's Mandolin

When Louis De Bernieres was asked about his opinion of the film based on his book, he told the Financial Times . . "Well, I could go on about that for a long time. There is a lot of good about it," he begins. But he can't restrain himself for long. Hollywood directors are "like dogs who want to piss on lamposts to show it's theirs", he suddenly says. " They just can't resist tampering with stories."

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

"Did short sellers kill Bear Stearns" in Vanity Fair

"At Phi Kappa Wall Street, most of the frat boys are instantly recognizable. There’s the big, backslapping Irishman, Merrill Lynch, the humorless grind, Goldman Sachs, and the straitlaced rich kid, Morgan Stanley. And then, off in the corner, wearing its beat-up leather jacket and nursing a cigarette, was the tough-guy loner, scrawny Bear Stearns, who disdained secret handshakes and towel snapping in favor of an extended middle finger toward pretty much everyone. Bear was bridge-and-tunnel and proud of it. Since the days when the Goldmans and Morgans cared mostly about hiring young men from the best families and schools, “the Bear,” as old-timers still call it, cared about one thing and one thing only: making money. Brooklyn, Queens, or Poughkeepsie; City College, Hofstra, or Ohio State; Jew or Gentile—it didn’t matter where you came from; if you could make money on the trading floor, Bear Stearns was the place for you. Its longtime chairman Alan “Ace” Greenberg even coined a name for his motley hires: P.S.D.’s, for poor, smart, and a deep desire to get rich.

Bear Stearns was an investment bank, but the traditional banking roles, such as advising on corporate mergers and trading stocks, were always an afterthought there. What the P.S.D.’s at Bear Stearns did best was trade bonds. The firm’s executive history was the story of three bond traders, each with his own outsize personality. From the mid-1930s till the late 1970s, Bear was the province of Salim “Cy” Lewis, the cantankerous Wall Street legend who forged a cutthroat culture run less as a modern corporation than as a series of squabbling fiefdoms, each vying for his approval. Ace Greenberg, an avuncular sort who kept his desk on the trading floor and answered his own phone, took over after Lewis’s death, in 1978, and while his edges were softer, Bear remained a Mametesque pressure cooker where top traders could pull down $10 million a year while runners-up were tossed into the alley."

The Vanity Fair piece blames everyone from shorts to CNBC to Charlie Gasparino and David Faber.

Yet bottom line remains: If your financial condition is so precarious that rumors can bring you down, then its the finances, and not the rumors, that are to blame . . .

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Let the closings begin . . .

It's been said that there won't be any real beginning to the end of the stockmarket/retail collapse until stores are actually closing by the big box chains, etc. Well, today we get the first of the "good news" items on closings . . . . Starbucks Corp. will close 600 U.S. coffee shops and eliminate as many as 12,000 jobs, the most in its history, as it slows the chain's expansion after it doubled in size in four years.

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Playing the Financials

While it's tempting to try to pick stocks among the financials which are so terrible now : BX MER UBS JF GE WFC LEH BAC ETFC JPM etc. why take the chance when you can buy them all in a ProShare ETF : UYG which would give you twice the performance; there is also the the XLF. I started a position in UYG on Friday.

the ever increasing cost to discover oil

Daniel Yergin said on Charlie Rose the other night that 4 years ago it would cost you $125K per day to rent a drilling ship. Today, however, that same ship would cost you $450K per day.

Some more on predicting . . . using a model

The issue is not whether any specific model might be wrong: ALL MODELS ARE BY DEFINITION WRONG. They are approximations, a numerical depiction of a small portion of universe. The true question for interested statisticians, mathematicians and economists is "just how wrong are they?" This is not, as some have implied, a question of nefarious cabals or governmental conspiracies. It is simply a mathematical reality.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Taking responsibility for one's self

Our activities and successes are based on our inner strength and wholeness. To grow, it is necessary for us to recognize and correct our own faults. Yet, it is difficult to do this since we hide our shortcomings not only from others but from ourselves. When we gain the ability to recognize and correct our own bad habits, we begin to make rapid strides toward greater happiness and success in all spheres of life. Only by learning to admit our own faults can we become more tolerant and loving to our fellow man and to his shortcomings.

attributed to Moses

Thursday, June 26, 2008

How bad are the wildfires in California??

Organizers of the 2008 Western States Endurance Run, the Squaw Valley-to-Auburn cross-country race that has become one of the premier ultrarunning competitions in the U.S., announced Wednesday that next week's scheduled running was canceled due to the unprecedented number of California wildfires and deteriorating air quality. Organizers said two fires burning within two miles of the race course as well as air pollution levels in Auburn registering 10 times levels deemed highly polluted prompted the decision. "Although there will be no race for the first time in our 35-year history, we still wish to make this experience as meaningful as possible for our runners," the letter stated.

Western States 100 homepage

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Mastercard bad boys . . .

In a huge settlement today, MasterCard will pay as much as $1.8 billion in quarterly payments over three years to settle the complaint that it blocked banks from issuing American Express cards. But MasterCard isn't the only bad boy . . Visa settled in November for $2.25 billion!

Monday, June 23, 2008

Lake Tahoe evaporates

1,400,000 tons of water evaporates everyday from Lake Tahoe, that's enough to satisfy 3,500,000 people.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Remember when ?????

It used to be said that so goes General Motors so goes the economy . . . . well, let's check here a little . . . back in October, 2007 GM was trading around $42/sh . . . . last check $13.79. OK, let's check on another big auto company, Ford . . . . last October it was trading at $9.75 . . . . drum roll, update . . . . closing today at $5.81.

Wow, that's some pain for the "buy and holders" of big auto.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Masdar City you ask????

How about this for an environmentally conscious social experiment, a mini-burg called Masdar City, a place with no cars, full solar power, advanced water-saving systems, complete energy independence, 100 percent walkability, zero carbon emissions, zero waste, full of so many radical enviro-friendly ideas it seems almost impossible, considering it's also being built on one of the least hospitable hunks of land anywhere. It's being built by the folks from Abu Dhabi, the richest city in the world (Average net worth of every one of Abu Dhabi's 420,000 citizens? Seventeen million dollars).

and the price tag you ask . . . $22 BILLION . . . that's a lot of zeros.

Whoah!

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Happy Father's Day

To all my friends and relatives who are fathers . . . . . have a great day and thanks for raising the next generation.

Sunday, June 08, 2008

More on jobs data from NY

The Floyd Norris at the NY Times notes that the 12-month change in private sector jobs is down 125,000 jobs from may 2007 to May 2008. Since 1953, this indicator has a perfect record, identifying 9 out of 9 recessions. When it flips negative (year over year), the economy is already in recession each and every time.



You can read about it here

Saturday, June 07, 2008

Another interesting piece of data on jobs


Many people consider the temporary job market an important barometer of the economy . . . .

Thursday, June 05, 2008

Neuroplasticity

Neuroplasticity is the ability of the brain to reorganize itself. Although in the last five years there have been some impressive demonstrations of brain reorganization that used to be thought impossible, the amount of reorganization that can occur in most adults is vastly less than can occur in children and adolescents.

Let's vote next week on the President

The Monterey Herald had a great op-ed piece yesterday which said "what more can we learn from the candidates in the next 5 months?" and I agree . . . . . let's have the election next week and save ourselves from 5 more months of campaigning and fund raising . . . . like the idea, send me an email.

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

32 years later

32 years ago (at precisely this time of day) Toni and I exchanged our vows overlooking the Pacific Ocean from a vacant lot on a cliff in Palos Verdes, California. We had our family with us with Judge Murphy presiding and the future Judge Tynan (Toni's brother) and Martha smiling on as Toni's mom Helen, Stephani (Toni's sister and maid of honor), Gay (my mom), Grandad CRT, Grandmother Betty, Aunt Sherry, my cousin Carla (pregnant with Nikki), my cousin Sandy and Rob, Rob (my best man and little brother) and Peggy, brother Andy and Lisa (pregnant with Kelly), sister Sarah, Toni's sister Kathy and Tom, Toni's sister Sharon and Peter and our two friends Dan and Susie witnessing the event.

During the last 32 years we've moved twice in Manhattan Beach then to Fair Oaks and now to San Luis Obispo. I created a business called Kincaid Hardwood Company and Toni taught elementary at Riverview Elementary. We traveled to Europe and around the United States seeing national parks and great golf courses and acclaimed art museums. We skied in the Rockies and the Sierras. We rafting in Idaho and Colorado. We've thrown Super Bowl parties, birthday parties, New Years Eve parties, fun parties. We've been to thousands of concerts and through it all we love each other more today than ever.

here's to my dear Toni . . . I love you. Let's keeping it rocking and a rolling.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Do you know what a QSPE is?

Banks have been using QSPEs to effectively boost their leverage and hence, their return on capital. Without the balance sheet constraints of the old days, banks were encouraged to create assets -- by making lots of loans they shouldn't have -- that could, in theory, be sold off later. It hasn't quite worked out that way.

QSPEs can have legitimate purposes -- but they also can obfuscate the true financial condition of a bank or broker. The purpose is not to simply hide losses off balance sheet, but to get those assets off balance sheet so leverage/Tier 1 capital ratios look better. Essentially you can be much more leveraged than you appear, so that ratios like ROA and ROE look stronger than they would if they weren’t employed.

Some financial gurus wonder if "The migration of exotics to the balance sheet may be inevitable." If he's correct, it bodes poorly a quick recovery for the financials. They have years worth of leveraged derivatives on their books, and writing them down won't be quick or painless.

9th inning? Hardly.

Monday, June 02, 2008

More on the financial crisis

To really understand how affected everyone is by the financial meltdown attributed to subprime mortgages (hear my cynism) you have to hear about what's going on in Europe . . . . how about this, from the Bloomberg wire . . . .

Bradford and Bingley, the U.K. lender struggling to raise cash in a rights offering, must honor a 2006 deal to buy about 2.1 billion pounds ($4.1 billion) of mortgages by the end of next year from GMC LLC.

Customer payments are more than three months late on 5 percent of loans already purchased from Detroit-based GMAC, trying to avert bankruptcy for its residential mortgage unit. That's more than double the average rate for mortgages held by the Bingley, England-based bank, it said yesterday in a statement.

the Science of Sound and Music

I've been reading "This is Your Brain on Music" by Daniel Levitin . . . . fascinating and very educational for anyone interested in What is Music? Where does it come from? Why do some sequences of sounds move us so, while others - such as dogs barking or cars screeching - make people uncomfortable? Levitin is a neuro-scientist.

Here's one interesting fact . . . "A Day in the Life" from the Beatles Sargeant Pepper LP has a 15 Hz for a few seconds at the end of the song, it's inaudible to most people over 40 years old but reportedly, Lennon wanted to make peoples dogs perk up.

Friday, May 30, 2008

Raising Margins on Oil Speculators

The New York Mercantile Exchange said on Tuesday it will increase margins for its crude oil and related futures contracts, beginning at the close of business on Wednesday.

Now this is the way to handle the situation . . . .

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Happy BIrthday to Me

62 years ago I was born in Pasadena, California to loving parents . . . healthy and raring to go.

from todays calendar of quotations . . . . "A painter paints pictures on canvas. Musicians paint their pictures on silence." Leopold Stokowski

Monday, May 26, 2008

reveiw on George Soros's latest book

this review is by Paul Farrel from Marketwatch . . . . . . he begins by quoting Soros, . . . . "We are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s," says Soros. "In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred in the last 25 years, but there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency. The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process; the current crisis is the culmination of a superboom that has lasted for more than 25 years."
The "new paradigm" can be found in his emphasis on the long-cycle "superboom" and "superbubble," that's the story of the "new paradigm." It started 25 years ago ... led to massive deregulation ... to blindly chasing free markets ... it unleashed excessive greed ... created the dot-com and credit meltdowns ... it is now driving the dangerous new "shadow banking system" fueled by $516 trillion in derivatives.
The system is broken, Soros warned Money magazine: "The days of rapid financial wealth creation are over. We're now in a period of wealth destruction. It is going to be very hard to preserve your wealth in these circumstances." Ouch! If you take no other lesson away for Soros' "New Paradigm," remember his warning: Protect your nest egg!
Still, he needs to write another book. The credit meltdown is not over, only pausing. What's the solution? He needs to help America and the world prepare better for the next "superbubble" meltdown, if not avoid it. Why? Because it's obvious Wall Street has not learned its lessons: The Fed bailed them out, set up a moral hazard condition. Now they're going back and to play in their new "shadow banking system."

Sunday, May 25, 2008

U Utah Philips passed away

Utah Phillips, a seminal figure in American folk music who performed extensively and tirelessly for audiences on two continents for 38 years, died Friday of congestive heart failure in Nevada City, California a small town in the Sierra Nevada mountains where he lived for the last 21 years with his wife, Joanna Robinson, a freelance editor.

my website

check out a cool website www.craigkincaid.com

Saturday, May 24, 2008

in the classroom with Jimmy

Teacher : OK, class, what's the difference between ignorance and apathy?

time goes by . . . . tick tick tick

tick tick

tick tick tick tick

finally from the back of the classroom . . .

Jimmy: Oh teach, I don't know and I don't care.

Friday, May 23, 2008

the latest on Societe Generale and their "rogue trader"

May 23 (Bloomberg) -- Jerome Kerviel was able to amass 50 billion euros ($78.7 billion) in unauthorized futures positions at Societe Generale SA because of ``fragmented'' internal controls, a report commissioned by the bank said today.

Kerviel's direct manager was ``weak,'' and the hierarchy failed to ``react in an appropriate manner to several alert signals,'' said the 71-page report from a special committee of the bank's board. Unwinding those positions cost a record 4.9 billion euros, the biggest trading loss in banking history.

His supervisors missed the level of his earnings, cash flows, brokerage expenses and overlooked warnings from Eurex AG, Europe's biggest futures exchange, the report said. Societe Generale's management has said the 31-year-old former trader lied, faked documents and e-mails, and hacked into the bank's computers to carry out and conceal trades. Kerviel is currently at the center of a criminal investigation into the affair.


I'm sorry but this is laughable beyond belief. SoGen is so inept in it's management that it now has to resort to damning supervisors after they damned the trader. They ought to be damning themselves and the whole top tier of the bank should be fired. I still believe they knew what was going on all the time and we very happy with the profits that Kerviel was generating before he blew up.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Airlines really know how to embrace their customers

Further, the new baggage fee (announced today by American Airlines) is likely to create havoc in airports and jet aisles as travelers try to beat the system by squeezing all their belongings into carried-on bags, further straining overhead bins' capacity. And it won't just be seasoned travelers but also newer ones, who might not know they can't bring aboard water bottles, razors or nail files, which will hold up the lines at security checks. ugh!

are analysts good at predicting anything?

here's the latest "analyst" forecast that totally missed the mark (9 am 5-21-08) . . . . Just hitting the wires, crude oil inventories for the week ended May 17 fell 5.32 million barrels, snapping four straight weeks of inventory builds. Analysts forecasted that stockpiles would increase by 300,000 barrels. Crude was trading nearly unchanged at $128.93 per barrel just prior to the release

that's a whopping BIG miss, don't you think?

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Facts on Short Selling

My portfolio is up 9% this year and it's because I've played the market for a downturn since last November using ETF's like GLD, DXD, QID, SDS. now here's some interesting data points . . .

• The amount of trading dollars that are in dedicated short pools are tiny: About $5.4 billion That's one-seventh the size of Fidelity's Magellan Fund.

• The $5.4B dedicated short hedge funds are a sliver of the nearly $2 trillion of hedge-fund assets.

• Over the past two decades, 58% of the issues on the New York Stock Exchange have advanced, while 42% have declined -- every year.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Food's relationship to the overall CPI?

"In the U.S. counts food as only 8% of the CPI index. Whereas, it counts for about 10% in the United Kingdom, about 15% in the rest of Europe and more than 18% in Japan."

Now here's where things get really interesting. If you consider the proportion of U.S. household spending on food by income quintile, all but the top 20% of earners spend at least 20% of their paychecks on food.

Hence, what the weighting versus the reality are very different. This means that for 80% of the country's populace, the CPI weightings are dramatically understates what the average American is experiencing in terms of their inflation versus the official CPI measure.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Bush eclipses Nixon

In the how to become really unpopular race . . . . our current President, George Bush has set an all time record high . . . . uhhhh this is not a good high. No, Bush has eclipsed Richard Nixon with the highest disapproval rating ever at 71%. Nixon achieved his unpopularity record just prior to resignation after Watergate.

Monday, May 12, 2008

Kids on Bluegrass at Parkfield Bluegrass Festival


Parkfield Bluegrass Festival 2008 is over but we all had a great time putting it on and working with the kids to help them learn instruments, new songs and how to perform.

go to parkfieldbluegrass.com to learn more

Grantland Rice on Golf

"Golf is twenty percent mechanics and technique. The other eighty percent is philosophy, humor, tragedy, romance, melodrama, companionship, camaraderie, cussedness, and conversation."

Sunday, May 11, 2008

How people listen to music

"I think there's been a huge shift in how people listen to music. They used to get as good a stereo as they could. Now they want an iPod. And the audiophiles have moved on to multimedia. But to get the content to people, you have to play by their rules."

"I cant tell you how many times someone comes in and plays me something he wants mastered and I'll say, 'Do you want to make it slamming loud or retain some of this great sound?' They'll say, 'We want to keep it really pristine.' Then the next day they'll call me and say, 'How come mine isn't as loud as so and so's?' "

"With the Beatles or Rolling Stones, they'd be a little sharp or flat, but no one would care — that was rock. Now if someone's out of tune or out of time, they treat it as a mistake and correct it."

How does MP3 work?
MP3 reduces a CD audio file's size by as much as ninety percent, with an algorithm that eliminates sounds listeners are least likely to perceive — including extremes of high and low frequencies.

What is dynamic range compression? This studio effect reduces the difference between the loud and soft parts of a piece of music — recently, mastering engineers have used it to make sure every moment on a CD is as loud as possible.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Consumer Credit hits record

The Federal Reserves released data today : it's now $2.56 trillion, the Fed's report doesn't cover borrowing secured by real estate, such as home-equity loans.


Thomas Jefferson says

Impartiality is always partial.

Sunday, May 04, 2008

Money Heaven and Bear Sterns and Enron

According to Yahoo Finance, there are 163.76 million outstanding shares of Bear Sterns. On May 7, 2007, Bear was trading at $158 or market cap of $25.874 billion . . . that's big. Wonder what Enron's market cap at it's zenith was ? we'll get back to that. Now, Bear Sterns is trading at $10.90 or a market cap of 1.785 billion or a loss of $24.089 . . . . gone to money heaven. Back to Enron, in Dec 2000 Enron's share price almost hit $85 (some sources say it's market cap was $65 billion). In 16 months it was gone . . . zero. I'm not sure if this is a fair comparison but it's still interesting, isn't it? and I haven't even brought up the subject of bond defaults, etc.

Saturday, May 03, 2008

Vince Gill

Gill has sold more than 26 million albums. He has earned 18 CMA Awards, including Entertainer of the Year in 1993 and 1994. He is tied with George Strait for having won the most CMA Male Vocalist Awards (five), and is currently second only to Brooks and Dunn for accumulating the most CMA Awards in history. Gill is a member of the Grand Ole Opry, and has received 19 Grammy Awards to date, the most of any male Country artist. An avid golfer, he helped create the annual Vince Gill Pro-Celebrity Invitational Golf Tournament (“The Vinny”) in 1993 in order to help support junior golf programs throughout Tennessee. Besides being known for his talent as a performer, musician and songwriter, Gill is regarded as one of Country Music’s best known humanitarians, participating in hundreds of charitable events throughout his career.

Friday, May 02, 2008

Money Heaven

No matter which number you want to believe, 1 Trillion or something less, the amount of equity loss to financial institutions in the past 6 months is staggering and it's gone to money heaven . . . . whooosh GONE. Now, the refinancing that's taking place with sovereign wealth funds, private equity, and government bailouts is not new money. It's money that is being borrowed from Mr and Mrs America or some other central bank or money being redeployed from another asset class but the stark reality is that a huge amount of equity is gone and never coming back . . . . oh yeah, that probably includes real estate.

Thursday, May 01, 2008

Citigroup calling re your HELOC

"We have determined that home values in your area, including your home value, have significantly declined. As a result of this decline, your home’s value no longer supports the current credit limit for your home equity line of credit. Therefore, we are reducing the credit limit for your home equity line of credit, effective March 18, 2008, to $10,000. Our reduction of your credit limit is authorized by your line of credit agreement, federal law and regulatory guidelines."

this is not something I made up, many people have received this notice . . .

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Back from Nashville


Our first trip to Nashville was moderately eventful. We woke up Saturday morning to the Nashville Marathon and wound up at the Grand Ole Opry that night. Oh yeah, I finally made it to the stage at the Ryman . . . .

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

A new leader in the banking crisis

UBS AG, Switzerland's biggest bank signaled that it will cut its investment bank to a rump after lost bets in subprime mortgages landed the Swiss group with a $37 billion bill, making it the biggest casualty of the financial crisis.

The world's biggest banks and securities firms have announced $290 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007, including reserves set aside for bad loans

now ring the bell . . . . who's next?