Saturday, December 30, 2006

Rainbows over Laguna Lake


As the storm from last week was clearing through, we saw an amazing rainbow from our backyard . . . .

Find a good charity

It's not too late to help. To determine whether the charity you going to give to is worthy, use this website to do some research . . . click here

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Mt Washington in New Hampshire


Mount Washington is the highest point in New England and the second highest peak on the Eastern half of the United States. Nestled in the majestic Presidential Range of the White Mountains of New Hampshire, the peak rises to an elevation of 6,288 feet above sea level.

The highest winds ever recorded on Earth were measured at the summit at 231 mph. Since it was first climbed in 1646 131 people have died hiking and climbing in the Presidential range of New Hampshire of which Mt Washington is highest peak. If the weather is nice you can drive to the summit in 20 minutes!

In October 2005, I was there and enjoyed a very cold but clear cloudless day. Unlimited visibility in every direction . . . . 10 days later there was 72" of snow there!


Take a little time to check out this amazing mountain at :


http://www.mountwashington.org/

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Climbing for CARE with Dan Dominy

One of my best friends, emmy award winning cameraman, Dan Dominy left for an epic trip to Africa to trek up Kilimanjaro and raise $150,000 for farmers in Senegal last January. Dan was part of the film crew. You can learn more about the climb here

Saturday, December 23, 2006

Pareidolia

It's a new phenomenon that scientists have named for the "perception of patterns where non are intended". The latest example is a water mark on a wall at home in Los Vegas that people are attributing to an apparition of the Virgin Mary. Another example is when one hears a strange sound in the house and attributes it so an intruder, when in most cases, it's just the wind.

Thursday, December 21, 2006

The Death of DVD's ???

Circuit City's disastrous results in big-screen television prices weren't all that ailed the company in its third quarter. DVD sales, or the decline of them is mind boggling. We bought a big-screen Vizio 37" at Costco some time ago for $695 when everything else (Panasonic, etc) was over $1600 and now they are all much less money. But no one is buying DVD's anymore with on-demand video available and netflix being so easy to use.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

The World's Sports Humanitarian Hall of Fame

Never heard of it? Of course not. That's because the mass media only reports what the athletes are doing when they get caught doing something wrong. That's wrong in my view and I just found out about the WSHHF click here to see it

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

How to invest with a better chance . . .

Ken Fisher (Forbes Magazine) says "the key to winning in investment—I paraphrase him here—is making bets “only” when you know things that most other players in the market don't".

Monday, December 18, 2006

Jesus Police is not a faith based website but seeks the truth

The mission of this website is to correct all the mis-information concerning the Life and Times of Jesus. This website seeks to collect the most accurate information we can about important issues related to Jesus. This is not a faith based website and nothing on this website is intended to prove or disprove whether or not Jesus is God or the Son of God. click here

Sunday, December 17, 2006

BE FLEXIBLE IN YOUR VIEWS

"I have more respect for people who change their views after acquiring new information than for those who cling to views they held thirty years ago. The world changes. Ideologues and zealots don't." Michael Crichton STATE of FEAR

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Ahmet Ertegun passes

There was no one bigger to us boomer music fans. He made it all happen.

read about his incredible life here

Walk Don't Run

The Ventures created one of the most played and popular tunes ever in Walk Don't Run which was used as a theme in Hawaii Five Oh and made it to the top of the pop charts in the 60's. They went on to record many of the best surf tunes ever . . . . but they have never been inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame . . . why or why?

Friday, December 15, 2006

my website

Have you checked my website lately you can do so at www.craigkincaid.com . . . . there you can learn a great deal about hardwood lumber, trading and my music world.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Grad School is the New College

Despite what you have heard, there is very little wage pressure throughout most of the system. Select, high paying jobs that require highly educated workers have wage pressure. Most of therest of the labor market does not. Kids, that's a lesson worth learning: Don't just stay in school, but keep adding letters after your name -- Grad School is the new college.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Can it get any worse for W ??? . . . . probably

His approval rating is the lowest ever according to the latest Zogby poll . . . click here

Monday, December 11, 2006

Mt Whitney . . . the tallest peak on the continuous USA

was initially called Fisherman's Peak by the "Three Fishermen" who first scaled the summit in 1873. Mt Whitney creates it's own weather!

Saturday, December 09, 2006

Remembering the 60's

If you're a boomer then you'll remember everything at this website with fondness. It was a great decade. Click here

Friday, December 08, 2006

Foreigners love our debt . . .

and that's a real good thing.

In dollar terms, foreign investors increased their debt holdings by $190.3 billion and equity holdings by $115.9 billion in the third quarter.

Sunday, December 03, 2006

Foster Brooks

want to see one of the funniest comediens ever? go to this link and see some of the Foster Brooks routines at the Friars Club. youtube

Making art from junk

For 16 years, NorCal Waste Systems (a private company) has provided Bay Area artists with a $1900 monthly stipend, fully equipped work space and an end of term public art exhibit. About 60 artists apply each year and between 4 and 8 are accepted. You can check out some of their work here

Best Enviromental Ski Areas Report

the Ski Area Citizens' Coalition, a group of environmental groups led by Colorado Wild in Durango, Colo., has released its report card on 77 western ski areas. check it out here

Thursday, November 30, 2006

Now we're blaming Iraq???

Blaming Iraqis for the woeful situation disregards recent history, some experts argue. Phebe Marr, an Iraq expert and adviser to the Iraq Study Group, calculates that because of policy missteps and other errors, the United States bears about 60 percent of the blame. "You can't say, 'We did this and the Iraqis didn't rise to the occasion,' " she said. "There's enough blame to go around."

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

better than Google???

Have you tried the new search engine created by Microsoft?? It's www.live.com. give it a try, it's pretty good.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Extinction

It's estimated that 99% of all species that have ever existed are now extinct! WOW

Monday, November 27, 2006

The mind has limited energy

Research studies have demonstrated that when people's psychological resources are taxed to the limit, they make impulsive mistakes. Maintaining discipline takes psychological energy, and when you use it up, you have to rest. Just like a muscle, when you are worn out, you need to take a break and regain your strength. It's vital to consider that the mind has limited energy, and that after putting in a hard and tedious effort, you must take a rest and rejuvenate, so you can face the world with a renewed sense of vigor. This applies to trading.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

5 Pillars of Aristocracy

1. Beauty
2. Well
3. Birth
4. Genius
5. Virtues
any one of the first 3 can at any time overbear any one or both of the last

Friday, November 24, 2006

Soul

according to Winston Marsalis when asked about Ed Bradley having soul and "what is soul?" he said "soul is when you have the ability to make other people feel better about being alive regardless of their condition."

Thursday, November 23, 2006

Happy Thanksgiving to all and all a good turkey

Today is the quintessential American holiday . . . enjoy good feelings, food and love with you family and friends. I'm going to.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Bull Market 3rd phase . . . .

"Once a price history develops, and people hear that their neighbor made a lot of money on something, that impulse takes over, and we're seeing that in commodities and housing...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."

Warren Buffett

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

FOX (Murdoch) once again prove how sleezy they are

Yes, they've agreed to not show the interview with OJ but why did it even get that far? How could something like "How I Killed My Wife" even get considered? Because Fox doesn't care about right, only ratings and so now they get to come off as "doing the right thing". Murdoch and his crew are the worst.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Household Jobs Survery

The Household Survey has become the last refuge of economic scoundrels. Whenever anyone trots out Household Employment Survey as proof of job creation, it is an admission that they are clueless hack, or a charlatan. This has been so clearly resolved that it tortures the imagination to understand WTF this is doing in the NYTimes. For posterity, I will repeat this for the umpteenth time: the Household survey IS NOT A SUPERIOR MEASURE OF JOB CREATION to the establishment survey. However, it is a reliable source of confusing data to the layperson that it can be cherry-picked by the disingenous.

What it measures is UNemployment. No less an authority than the BLS, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve have said that the Household Survey is not a good measure of job creation. It was never designed to measure new job creation. For more information on this, see BLS on Payroll vs. Household Survey, Redux: Household versus Establishment Surveys and this Household versus Establishment Surveys, part 42.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

3 Reasons for Living

from an anonymous reader . . . . there are 3 reasons for living

1. To build a better world

2. To make life more interesting

3. To draw all the attention possible to oneself

Saturday, November 11, 2006

Priorities of football

It's nice to see that election officials in Ohio (ahem, still questions about the 2004 election there) have their priorities on straight. A very close House seat is up for grabs, Rep. Deborah Pryce, is ahead in her central Ohio race by 3,536 votes. In the Columbus, OH area, officials are delaying the count of more than 9,000 provisional ballots by one day so it doesn't disrupt the "much vaunted" Michigan-Ohio St football game on Nov 18. oh yeah, wouldn't want to compromise an election for a football game.

Friday, November 10, 2006

Rockefeller Tree


Did you see the size of this tree they plucked out some guy's backyard to put in Rockefeller Plaza?

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Did anything really big happen?

Nope, just a bunch of re arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic in my view. I doubt if any meaningful change in taxation, spending or growth in goverment trends will change in the next 2 years. There will be more vengeful campaigns, lots of money tossed at demopublicans by lobbyists, the Alternative Minimum Tax will not be amended, auto fuel mileage will not be addressed, nope, not much will really change . . . . . oh wait a minute. Maybe we'll start pulling out of Iraq.

Monday, November 06, 2006

Google pays for traffic? who would have guessed?

Google actually paid for traffic - $1 billion to Dell over 3 years for a crummy toolbar on Dell PCs. The numbers may work, but it's kind of like Hugh Grant paying for something he would get anyway. There may still be someone in Sheboygen who doesn't know about Google. Is search now such a commodity that Google needs to pay money to keep growing?

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Steroids

OK, I know how steroid use can be stopped right now . . . but I really don't believe anyone in control wants to stop it, they just are playing the politics but back to my solution. Punish the team, not the individual. Let's take the case of the latest guilty party . . . The San Diego Chargers. The Charger's linebacker Shawne Merriman tested positive, of course he denies it, that's the typical response. But we all know that he used steroids, heck they all do. Anyway, instead of banning him for 4 games, I say, the Chargers should have to forfeit the next 4 games. That would get some action on eliminating steroid use, wouldn't it?

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

don't get me wrong, I love baseball

I hope I didn't give the wrong impression yesterday. Baseball has always been my favorite "team" sport, I've played it almost all my life (from 5 to 45 . . . then my arm went out). But I gave up on professional baseball after the first strike and about the time the O'Malley's sold the Dodgers. I became difficult to know what next year's team was going to be since free agency allowed for the continual breaking up of teams.
Now here's the catch to my love hate . . . . I enjoy high school and college baseball more than ever. There you have teams!!!

Now here are some things I think which might help pro Baseball get some fans back . . . . with respect to the World Series. Have the WS at a neutral site where they have good weather! And lastly . . . there's no need for every "non-baseball minute" to be filled with hystrionics, fireworks, cheerleaders, etc. It's okay to have some down time between batters and innings . . . . puleeez?

Monday, October 30, 2006

has Baseball lost it?

Now don't get me wrong, I still love baseball but . . . .

It hasn't been that long since the World Series was decided but here are some interesting observations, people won't even watch baseball in high definition from their family room couches anymore. This year's TV ratings for the final game were the worst ever and less than half of the ratings 15 years ago. There are way too many commercials.
Remember when you used to sneak your portable radio into class; put in your desk, keep the volume low and then put your head on the desk so you could pretend you were napping and listen to the World Series game? It didn't matter who was playing it was the best teams playing on the grandest of stages.
Remember when people cared so much about the World Series that the smallest paper in the land would devote a weeks worth of rich stories about games? Last Saturday's Louisville Courier-Journal, a venerable publication in a town that is only a 4 hour drive from St Louis covered the entire championsip in one small wire service story with only 6 paragraphs on the front page!

I'll follow up on this post with another tomrrow . . . .

Sunday, October 29, 2006

"Mission accomplished!" GHW Bush . . . . huh?

let's see how many days since the "mission was accomplished"? . . . . well, we're approaching 1300 days. doesn't seem like much has been accomplished.

Friday, October 27, 2006

Thinking . . . . or not

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are really rearranging their prejudices." William James

Being something???

most people believe they must do something to have something to be something, that's not true. being something is totally up to you.

Sunday, October 22, 2006

American's owning their homes

an interesting piece in Forbes compared some statistics over the last 40 years, the most interesting to me was the % of American's owning their own homes. I would have guess that today we are are some himalayan peak but not so . . . .

Home Ownership Percentage

1965 63%
1975 68%
1985 64%
1995 65%
2005 69%

Source: St. Louis Fed

~~~

Saturday, October 07, 2006

Silence

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about the things that matter.

Martin Luther King, Jr

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Politics

Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber.
- Plato

Saturday, September 30, 2006

Whistling Straits

just got back from Kohler, Wisconsin. Herb Kohler handed a blank check to Pete Dye and said build me 4 great golf courses. the resort is called the American Golf Resort and the 4 courses are the Irish, the Meadows and Valley, the River and the Whistling Straits courses. the 2004 PGA Championship won by V J Singh was played there.

click here to visit the website and see all of the golf holes

Friday, September 08, 2006

Real Estate Bottom?? St Joe gives it up

Is this a sign of a bottom?

St. Joe (JOE: NYSE) announced last night that it is getting out of the homebuilding business. As the market turned lower, the company insisted everything was splendid and demand was strong. Guess those houses on the banks of the swamp (and even the beach) weren't as popular as they led us to believe.

The company had a tremendous run several years ago, but in this trying market, management has proven it is reactionary, not visionary. In an effort to pump up its declining asset value, management reclassified all of its timberland to land that can be developed, despite the fact that much of it won't be developed for years. Now, they are bailing on building homes.

Lots of gloom and doom in housing. Could this be the first sign of a bottom?

Saturday, August 12, 2006

need to get out of a meeting?

then schedule a telephone at PopularityDialer.com Jenny LC Chowdhury and Cory Forsyth created PopularityDialer.com. It's a Web site that allows users to schedule a phone call from one of five recorded voices... providing a way out of boring meetings or uncomfortable situations.

new thinking on videos

How close are we to having a new concept of a "set-top box" that pulls videos from anywhere, anytime so that the concept of a "channel" being "broadcast" fades from memory?

Monday, July 31, 2006

Flipping Real Estate and how it's not working anymore

Do you know what the Ghost Housing Market is?

Here is the link to a sobering look at what's going on between developers and flippers . . . it used to be a good gamble to buy a house pre-construction and sell it before you had to take occupancy of it . . . that doesn't work anymore and flippers are taking baths on their "investments". Hopefully your not one them.

click here

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Do you really need instant pleasure?

As much as you may think you need immediate pleasure, you don't. You can wait for a trade to come to fruition. If you wait calmly and follow your trading plan, you will increase your odds of success, and end up with a lot more profits later.

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Has Patenting Gone Crazy??

Have you ever used a laser pointer to drive your pet crazy? You may soon have your day in court because you infringed on Patent No. 5443036, "Method of Exercising a Cat," including "any other animals with the chase instinct."

And if you, after reading this, think you better go back to having your dog fetch a plain old stick, beware. There's a patent for that, too. (No. 6360693, "Animal Toy.")

Have you ever sat on a swing suspended from a tree branch, making yourself swing from side to side by alternately pulling on the chains? You're toast, according to the laws protecting Patent No. 6368227, "Method of Swinging on a Swing."

And speaking of toast: You may want to eat your bread unheated from now on, lest you may be found guilty of violating Patent No. 6080436, "Bread Refreshing Method."

In Australia, John Keogh, a freelance patent lawyer striving to expose the faulty system, managed in 2001 to patent a "Circular Transportation Facilitation Device," a.k.a. the wheel.

Patent laws were originally designed to protect truly innovative ideas from being stolen by others, granting the owner 20 years of exclusive rights to his invention. So far, so good.

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Golf

Paul Azinger pointed something very interesting . . . a round of golf consists of 90 seconds of motion and 4 1/2 hours of emotion.

Is the grice of gasoline too high?

a recent survey for the National Retil Federation found that 42% of households with incomes of less than $50K were dining out less frequetnly because of high gas prices and that 33% with higher incomes had cut back on eating at restaurants. less than 25% of the 7,388 people polled in May said that gas prices were having "no major impact," down from last year's 33.8% the pressure on houshold finances is showing up in higher credit card deliquencies, the ABA said. late payments to credit card companies rose to 4.4 % in the first 3 months of the year - a reversal fromthe six months of declines.

then there's my own "tell" . . . I don't see any evidence of people slowing down on freeways. trying to drive the speed limit in California will get you run off the road and until I see people slowing down (which is the most effective way of conserving gasoline) I won't believe that the price of gasoline is too high.

Saturday, July 15, 2006

What does war mean to your wealth?

Many times in the past, shortly after war breaks out, markets rally . . . read more
click here

Wednesday, July 05, 2006

State of Califonia Tort Liability Index

State Tort Liability Index Rankings

Regular readers of this newsletter know that we like to look at how the State of California ranks against other states on matters of public policy. A recent study by the Pacific Research Institute assesses the condition of each state’s tort liability system relative to other states. The study uses a dynamic model of elements of each state’s tort system to come up with a ranking in relation to other states. In other words, it assesses the positive and negative aspects of each state’s laws and outcomes of court cases instead of relying on individual opinions.

The report, U.S. Tort Liability Index: 2006 measures which states have relatively high tort costs and which states have enacted more reforms to better position themselves for future economic prosperity.

According to this study, California ranks 35th out of 50 states We score the highest (meaning the worst) in the study’s monetary caps category. This means that we have very few caps on monetary awards. We score the best on the study’s monetary tort losses category, which measure the amount of loss that defendants experience in tort cases. States that do best on the overall scale are Texas and Colorado (where recent tort reforms have been adopted) and the worst are Rhode Island and Vermont (states that have few legal limits on tort cases).

The reason we need to examine where California lies in relation to other states is because it makes a difference on whether businesses open a new location, hire more people, or invest in new plants.

As stated by former Michigan Governor John Engler, who is now President of the National Association of Manufacturers, “the health of a state’s civil justice system is a key indicator of its economic vitality and potential for future growth. A fair, stable, and predictable legal environment is critical to a state’s ability to attract investment, draw new businesses, and generate new jobs.” I couldn’t agree more.

To view the Institute’s study you can go to:
http://www.pacificresearch.org

Thursday, June 29, 2006

sorry I've been gone awhile but . . .

we bought a house and you know what type of work that takes. anyway, I'll be back after the fireworks on the 4th of July but if you haven't checked out www.checkout.google.com . . . do so

Sunday, June 18, 2006

economic theory . . . eh?

Any given economic theory will perfectly describe the world as long as you agree with the underlying assumptions. More often than not, however, the underlying assumptions take us from the real world into a world of, well, theory.

Thursday, June 15, 2006

Real Estate values and the CPI - rental equivalence explained

Rental Equivalence--Background

Until the early 1980s, the CPI used what is called the asset price method to measure the change in the costs of owner-occupied housing. The asset price method treats the purchase of an asset, such as a house, as it does the purchase of any consumer good. Because the asset price method can lead to inappropriate results for goods that are purchased largely for investment reasons, the CPI implemented the rental equivalence approach to measuring price change for owner-occupied housing. It was implemented for the CPI-U in January 1983 and for the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) in January 1985.

Rental equivalence. This approach measures the change in the price of the shelter services provided by owner-occupied housing. Rental equivalence measures the change in the implicit rent, which is the amount a homeowner would pay to rent, or would earn from renting, his or her home in a competitive market. Clearly, the rental value of owned homes is not an easily determined dollar amount, and Housing survey analysts must spend considerable time and effort in estimating this value.

When initially introduced, the rental equivalence index’s monthly movement was calculated by reweighting the rent sample to represent owner-occupied units. Starting with the CPI for January 1987, the rental equivalence index movement was based on changes in the implicit rents of a sample of owner-occupied units. As part of the 1987 revision, BLS drew a new housing sample to replace the old rent sample. The new sample had both owner- and renter-occupied housing units. To estimate the change in the implicit rents of the owners, the CPI:

* Estimated initial implicit rents by asking the CPI data collectors to work with the owners themselves to estimate the units’ potential rent.
* Measured the change in implicit rents over time by matching owner units to renter units with similar characteristics. The characteristics included location, structure type, and other general traits such as age, number of rooms, and type of air conditioning.
* Derived the change in the implicit rent for each owner unit in the sample from the change in the actual rents of its matched set of renters. Because owners pay for utilities separately, the CPI calculated the pure rent of the matched renters by removing the value of any landlord-provide utilities and furniture. The implicit rents of the owner units were moved by the changes in the pure rents of the matched renters.
* Moved the rental equivalence index by the average changes in the implicit rents of the owner units.

In 1997, BLS started the process of developing a new housing sample to replace the one that had been in use since 1987, and began using it starting with the index for January 1999. BLS dropped the owner sample and returned to the method that was used for the rental equivalence index when it was first introduced, that is, reweighting the renter sample to represent owner-occupied units.

This decision was made for several reasons:

* Moving implicit rents by matching renter and owner observations is inherently a reweighting of the rent sample.
* A large portion of the 1987 sample was devoted to owners, to support the estimation of initial implicit rent. By dropping the owner sample, the field staff would not have to initiate, price, and maintain an owner sample.
* Because owner-renter matching is not needed for rental equivalence, the calculation of the index would be greatly simplified.

you can learn more at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

on economists

"If all the economists in the world were laid end to end, it wouldn't be a bad thing."
-- Peter Lynch

Saturday, June 10, 2006

Charlie Munger quote

in case you don't know who Charlie Munger is, he's Warren Buffet's partner at Berkshire Hathaway . . . now here's a great quote from CM

"The harder you work on something, the more confidence you have in it. But you might be working on something you aren't good at."

Thursday, June 08, 2006

Ron Howard

a conversation with Ron Howard reveals :

Who are your favorite writers? The Daily Show with Jon Stewart staff.

Who is your favorite hero of fiction? R.P. McMurphy, of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.

Which historical figure do you most identify with? Lenny Wilkins. A long career as a point guard, a longer career as a head coach.

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Dead Reckoning

Captains of the 15th, 16th and 17th centuries used to determine their position at sea (distance east or west of home port) by this method. The captain would throw a log overboard and observe how quickly the ship receded from the temporary guidepost. He noted the crude speeedometer reading in his ship's logbook, along with the direction of travel, which he took from the stars or a compass, and the length of time on a particular course, counted with a sandglass or a pocket watch. Factoring in the effects of ocean currents, fickel winds and errors in judgment he then determined his longitdue. Too often, the technique of dead reckoning marked him for a dead man.

Before the invention of the ship's clock by John Harrison in 18th century, ship's captains really didn't know where they were longitudally . . . . this is interesting when you think about Magellan circumnavigating the globe.

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

should we be worried about a Democratic congress ?

from thestreet.com's Jim Cramer . . . . mostly he's brilliant, forget the Mad Money persona

here's his take this morning

Random musings: Guess we should be panicked that the House of Representatives might go Democratic. Sell the drug stocks. Be ready for big spending. You can bet that the budget will no longer be balanced and that federal borrowing will spike. Oops! That all happened under the Republicans, didn't it? The papers are trying to sow fear about the Republican agenda, but to me the agenda has been everything that could possibly be reckless for the dollar and stock markets, except the dividend tax cut. We have experienced an unprecedented spending binge, one that has helped make U.S. markets among the worst in the world. I don't fear a Democratic turn in the House. We had two-party government with Clinton and it worked great. Frankly, all we want out of Washington is that they do nothing at this point, and a gridlocked Congress is a recipe for exactly that. I am hoping it happens. That way we take Washington out of the equation. Good riddance!

Monday, June 05, 2006

Ax

If the ax is not sharp, it doesn't matter how hard the wood is."

old Chinese proverb

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

the First of Ten things every American should do before dying

1. Explore golf from the singles line. Go out to your favorite course and join some others who don't have a complete foursome. You'll meet some interesting people and learn something about yourself too.

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

English is our language

So they're debating in congress on a bipartisan agreement which states that English is the "national" language . . . . they couldn't go for "official".

you say potato and I potahto, whatever, if this bill passes maybe we can get on with the simplification process where the government doesn't have to cater to everyone with a different language; all documents in English, thank you. that ought to be the best motivator for people wanting to assimilate into our society to learn the language.

Friday, May 26, 2006

Alcatraz to Aquatic Park

in case you missed it . . . a 7 year old boy fueled by a couple of slices of pizza braved the chilly waters of San Francisco Bay and became one of the youngest to swim across the channel. it's a 1.4 mile swiim and he did it in 47 minutes . . . yes, he wore a wetsuit

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Bob Dylan - sixty five today

Happy Birthday Bob, thanks for the great music.

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

how to cope in a slowing real estate market . . . lower your credit standards

As demand wanes, there's been an unsurprising but troubling response from banks: They are making it easier to take out a mortgage. According to last week's survey of bank loan officers by the Fed, more than 11 percent lowered their credit standards in the past three months, while fewer than 2 percent tightened. And mortgage-payment performance has begun deteriorating. Though absolute levels are still historically low, late payments are rising.

Sunday, May 21, 2006

whaddaya mean no inflation?

you’d think nobody in the government, where come up with the CPI data does any of the following:

1. Buys gasoline, food or clothing.
2. Rents cars.
3. Buys airline tickets.
4. Stays in hotels.
5. Eats out.
6. Eats in.
7. Pays college tuition.
8. Goes to a doctor, a dentist, or a lawyer.
9. Has life insurance, health insurance, or property and casualty insurance.
10. Pays property taxes.
11. Goes to a psychiatrist.

Friday, May 19, 2006

the problem of Natural Gas

Finding natural gas is one thing, bringing it to market profitably is another. During the last big oil boom of the late 1970s and early 1980s, companies such as Dome and PanArctic were hot by virtue of the onshore NG prospects. Those proved to be busts.

Large known NG deposits in places like Iran and Turkmenistan remain underdeveloped from a combination of political risk and the high cost of moving that gas to final markets. Both pipelines and liquefaction facilities are quite expensive. The supergiant Northwest Dome field offshore Qatar in the Persian Gulf has been known for decades, but is only now being developed commercially.

Natural gas is very price-inelastic. A small increase in supplies can bring a large decrease in price and render projects uneconomic. By the late 1980s and early 1990s, production in the U.S. was being shut in for that reason.

Anything found in the Arctic is going to face these same logistical and political risks plus the difficulties of operating in the Arctic environment. Maybe the sea ice is breaking up, but it is still an extraordinarily hostile environment.

Lower NG prices in the current market will have only a limited impact on petroleum prices. NG competes with residual fuel oil in industrial applications and with heating oil in space heating. Some residential use will be diverted to NG, but this really does not drive crude oil prices lower. And as we are not in heating season, the heating oil substitution will be nonexistent.

The risk still goes the other way: A hot summer or a few nuclear power plant closures and NG now going into storage will get diverted to electric utilities. And who knows what the hurricane season will look like after 2004's Ivan and last year's Katrina and Rita? It is a tough market to be aggressively short.

Thursday, May 18, 2006

you think there's a housing bubble in the US ? check out Korea

May 19, 2006 Finance Minister Han Duck-soo has joined a growing number of local experts and government officials voicing concern that the nation's red-hot real estate market is about to cool down, saying the housing market in affluent southern Seoul is reminiscent of that in Japan just before the real estate bubble burst in the 1990s.
"The apartment price in three districts in Gangnam (Gangnam, Seocho and Songpa) is 18.9 times the average annual income of local wage earners, closely trailing a figure of 21.7 set in Gangnam [southern Seoul] in December 1990, when the nation's real estate bubble burst," said Mr. Han in a regular press briefing in Gwacheon, south of Seoul, yesterday.
Drawing the parallel with Japan's housing market in the 1980s, Mr. Han said the current situation is "beyond a normal level."
"We will take measures to prevent the housing bubble from deflating suddenly," he said, noting property prices elsewhere in Seoul appear to be stable. His comments echo those made by a number of top government officials and economists over the past few days, all expressing concern that inflated housing prices may soon take a significant tumble, with serious consequences for local mortgage lenders and homeowners. Construction Minister Chu Byung-jik said on Tuesday that the real estate markets in regional and Seoul suburban areas have already begun to cool down, warning that houses in the capital could follow suit in the second half of this year.
On the same day, Kim Seok-dong, the Deputy Finance Minister, also said the government's measures to curb home price hikes would take effect in earnest in the second half of this year.
Now another senior official at the Finance Ministry has joined the fray; Kim Yong-min, director general for tax and customs, said Korean real estate prices are at a "turning point."
"The most expensive apartments in Korea cost about 60 million won [$63,357] per pyeong [3.3 square meters], about the same as the most expensive apartments in Tokyo," Mr. Kim said in an interview with local radio station SBS radio. "Given that the average Japanese income is about three times that of the average Korean, one can certainly say that bubbles exist in the market," he said. Mr. Kim said housing demand in Gangnam would be "scattered to northern Seoul areas," once state-led reconstruction projects in the areas kick off this summer.

The key question about illegal immigration

The key question about illegal immigration has finally been answered, said Michelle Malkin in The Washington Times. In the current debate over whether to grant this country’s illegal aliens amnesty, the focus has been on jobs, the economy, and national security. What’s missing is any serious discussion of whether these 11 million people, most of them Latinos, are assimilating into our population. Do the people who’ve crossed our borders truly want to be Americans—or do they simply want to set up a separate, Spanish-speaking nation in our midst? Let’s ask the hundreds of thousands of Latino separatists who staged angry protests last week in Los Angeles and other cities, waving Mexican flags. “Brown is beautiful,” they chanted, and “Chicano Power.” Some brandished signs saying, “This is a stolen land,” arguing that the American Southwest rightly belongs to Mexico. In portraying the demonstrators as aggrieved minorities, the liberal media, of course, tried to ignore these obvious displays of racism and “virulent anti-American hatred.” But how can the rest of us?

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Who said this about liberty?

"Those who give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither, and will lose both."


Ben Franklin

Monday, May 15, 2006

Taxing chopsticks to save timber

China has slapped a 5% tax on chopsticks over concerns of deforestation. The move is hitting hard at the Japanese, who consume a tremendous 25 billion sets of wooden choptsticks a year (97% come from China). Chinese exporters have responded to the tax and other cost increases by raising prices by 30% and a planned additional 20% is pending. Hang on to those old wooden sticks or switch over to the petroleum based plastic resuable ones.

Sunday, May 14, 2006

the changing face of the Dow Jones Industrial Average

I've talked about how it's impossible to compare your results with the DJIA or any other index because they keep changing the components. The result is that the DJIA eliminates the losers from the group. Remember the survivor bias?

During April, 2004 Dow Jones & Co yesterday replaced three of America's oldest companies in its benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average in a move that reflects the growing importance of the financial and health care sectors to the US economy.

AT&T Corp, Eastman Kodak Co and International Paper Co will be dropped from the blue-chip Dow index in favor of insurer American International Group Inc, drugmaker Pfizer Inc, and phone company Verizon Communications, Dow Jones said.

The changes help make the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average -- the world's best known market gauge -- more closely mirror the US economy's waning reliance on the factory sector.

"It probably says something, if you look at the components of the Dow, about the overall composition of the US economy," said Deutsche bank analyst Mark Wilde. "If you look at the long term, manufacturing is a smaller and smaller piece."

Saturday, May 13, 2006

Consumers are losing confidence

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 79.0 in May from April's 87.4, the lowest since October's 74.2. The 10+ fall has only taken place a few times since the the survery began in 1978 associated with events like Katrina, 1991 recession, Saddam Hussein's capture of Kuwait and when the hostages were taken at the US Embassy in Tehran in 1980. What else is in store if consumers are so distressed? Well, think about how much income is now going to higher gasoline prices, higher mortgage payments, increased costs for everything made from petroleum . . . yes, I think we had better plan on a real slowdown in the economy.

Friday, May 12, 2006

Let's put the losses in perspective . . .

Enron currently stands as the U.S.'s largest corporate bankruptcy in terms of lost value -- about $66 billion. But don't think it takes a combination of fraud, deregulation and complicity from the bean counters for disasters of this magnitude to strike equity holders.

In terms of lost investor wealth, Enron actually compares favorably to other flameouts. EMC, Cisco Systems (CSCO:Nasdaq) and General Electric (GE:NYSE) each "lost" over $100 billion in market cap from December 2000 to their 2002 lows. From the perspective of market-cap loss, Lucent (LU:NYSE) shareholders would also have been collectively better off owning Enron instead.

Even (once) mighty Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) -- with a market capitalization of $266 billion as of Thursday's close -- has suffered enormous losses. From its split-adjust peak of $60, to its post-bubble low near $20, more than $300 billion in Microsoft shareholder valued has disappeared.

So compared with any of these market crash calamities, Enron loss is relatively minor. That is truly astounding.

And it's not just the tech sector where shareholder losses accrue: From December 2000 to the present day, pharmaceutical giant Merck (MRK:NYSE) has dropped $120 billion in value. Even oil colossus Exxon Mobil (XOM:NYSE) lost over $105 billion of market cap from November 2000 to July 2002, before rallying in conjunction with rising oil prices.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

The new reality of getting around . . .

The working folk don't have the option of driving nice expensive hybrids or even gas guzzlers. They drive what they can afford. They also live in older housing where there are few options, except to pay the energy bills as presented. These folks are also bigger users of public transportation. This raises the next wave of crisis mode we'll have to deal with. Many cities and municipalities are being drowned by the costs of running their public fleets. The smart ones have set forward contracts limiting their fuel costs. But even they will be taking on far higher costs as these contracts expire. Who will pick up the shortfall for the spiraling costs of running those public fleets? Obviously it's the taxpayers of these cities and municipalities. That's no big deal for folks who live in Scottsdale or Boca Raton, but it's a different story in blue-collar towns all over the country. We could be looking waves of municipal bankruptcies in the next few years.

Survival Bias

My favorite bias is the survival bias. Everybody will tell you that stock investing is a great idea because it's been back-tested by some serious Guru and if you bought one share of some stock during the revolution you would have owned the GNP of some banana republic. But you forget that your back testing is only on stocks that are alive today and did not cover stocks in imperial Russia that a rational investor would have bought at the beginning of the century. Many continental stocks were recycled into wallpaper. When you look at markets you are only looking at the remnants, the parts that have survived. Or take real estate. People always say it goes up. But that works only if you always bought in places that became fancy. The S & P 500 or the DJIA or the Nasdaq 100 or any other indice is always changing the compoenents to weed out the losers hence it's very difficult to beat them.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Size Bias

Another bias is what I call the size bias. If you have twenty thousand traders in the market, sure enough you'll have someone who's been up every day for the past few years and will show you a beautiful P&L. If you put enough monkeys on typewriters, one of the monkeys will write the Iliad in ancient Greek. But would you bet any money that he's going to write the Odyssey next? You know that because of the sheer size of the sample, you're likely to find a lucky monkey once in a while. But the same applies to traders.

Small Sample Bias

Several months ago I said I was going to blog a series on trading biases and forgot to post more . . . . here's one that's very interesting : The most common is the small sample bias. Let's say you have 1 to 1000 odds you will come home every day with a dollar and once in a while you lose $1000. Many traders show very steady incomes but they could be fooling themselves because they don't have a long enough period of time to chart their performance. Their Sharpe ratio will not be indicative. In option trading, there is a similar bias. Short premium option traders, typically those who sell out-of-the-money options, are more likely to make money on a daily basis and then blow up. Likewise the yield hogs, those traders who would take any risk for a few basis points. You can fool yourself with your Sharpe ratios, and you can fool all of the financial engineers, but you can't fool an old Chicago trader who went bankrupt twice.

Monday, May 08, 2006

Justice is Getting Lost in the Duke Case

If you really believe that the Duke lacrosse players are getting a fair shake, think again . . . read Jason Whitlock's piece in the Kansas City Star . . . here's some of it . . . "The fact that one of the arrested suspects seems to have an airtight alibi — a cabbie, cell phone records, an ATM receipt and record of entrance into his dorm room — is completely ignored. So is the fact that the other stripper clearly has questionable motives and is interested in seeing if she can “spin” this tragedy to her advantage and possibly make a little cash."

read more here

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Is it any riskier???

One of the comments I often hear about the market after it has been trending up for a while is that it is now "too risky" to hold stocks. The thinking is that once stocks have gone up a lot, the risk of buying is increased.

Whether that is true depends on how you define "risk."

In theory, if you buy the Nasdaq when it's at 2300 rather than 1900 you have greater risk because there is more potential downside, but what that thinking fails to take into account is the ability to limit our losses by selling.

If we have the ability to sell a stock when it has pulled back a certain amount is our risk any greater if we buy at $20 instead of $10? Do higher prices necessarily increase risk if we have the ability to apply money-management discipline?

This same logic is often used in an attempt to convince investors that shorting is much more risky than going long. The argument is that when you short a stock your losses are theoretically unlimited! The stock could increase 1,000-fold and you would be wiped out! The problem with that argument is that it assumes you are somehow incapable of covering your position before your loses reach a billion dollars.

Risk has little to do with absolute price levels. The real risk most investors have to contend with is news after the close that causes big gaps. When that occurs you don't have the ability to use your money-management rules to cut losses. The higher the market goes, the greater the risk of a dramatic reversal overnight that leaves you unable to keep losses small; but most investors greatly overestimate the potential far a big overnight crash. It might occur if there was a major terrorist attack in the U.S., but if you worry about that possibility you'd be sitting on the sidelines for the last four-and-a-half years. More money is lost anticipating a crash than has ever been lost in an actual one.

So is this market really much more risky than it was six months ago? Theoretically, there is more downside since prices are higher, but if you use good money management then the risk is not significantly greater at all.

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

The National Anthem in Spanish?

I think national anthems should be sung in the language that the composer wrote them in . . . . end of story.

Monday, May 01, 2006

Force Majeure

Force majeure (French for "greater force") is a common clause in contracts which essentially frees one or both parties from liabilities when an extraordinary event beyond the control of the parties, such as flood, war, riot, act of God, prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract.

Under international law it refers to an irresistible force or unforeseen event beyond the control of a State making it materially impossible to fulfill an international obligation. Force majeure precludes an international act from being wrongful where it otherwise would have been.

here's an example MONTREAL, Canada, April 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Alcan Inc. (NYSE, TSX: AL - News News) announced today that it has declared Force Majeure on supply contracts from its 2.0 million tonne-per-year (Mt/y) Gove alumina refinery in the Northern Territory of Australia after a category 5 cyclone caused Alcan Gove to interrupt production.

Thursday, April 27, 2006

B S Open

Tomorrow I'll be going to Palm Springs to join with friends to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the BS Open. This is an event that we've been having to play a golf tournament and renew old friendships of fraternity brothers from USC . . . Kappa Sigma.

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Housing Bubble Concerns

Whether there's a bubble or not, one has to be concerned about the continuing pace of leverage on personal balance sheets. For some time now, experts have predicted this leveraging will eventually wreck havoc but so far it hasn't. Here are some interesting facts from the most recent analysis according to Freddie Mac . . . nearly $250 billion was added to consumers pocketbooks with the cashing in of home values in 2005. What happened to it? Much of it was plowed back into real estate to improve or invest in existing homes, some was invested in stocks and bonds and the rest was used to maintain lifestyles. That won't be the same case in 2006 for a variety of reasons. Federal regulators are zeroing in on the non-traditional loan market and you can bet that zero interest loans won't be that available in 2006 for speculation on housing. Second home values are now beginning to fall and new home sales are off 21% from last year's peak levels. Conclusion, the appreciation of home values is not going to provide for consumers the cash as in the past.

the Median Family

Median means the point half way between the top and the bottom, it's a statistical point for reference only, one which I believe is meaningless other than for tracking purposes. The median family's real net worth (adjusted for inflation) rose on 1.4% from 2001 to 2004 and only one half of the families in the US live on an annual income of $43,200 or less, up just 1.6% since 2001. Despite employment gains touted by the administration as so good for the economy, wage growth fell.

Tuesday, April 25, 2006

20 Strangest Gadgets and Accessories

I've never before referred everyone to another blog but here I go . . . check this one out at this link the blog has much more but this page is all about some pretty interesting gadgets out there now.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

California Dept of Fish and Game's frustration

Whether it's poaching, snagging or overfishing the DFG has the responsibility and authority to enforce California's laws related to fishing and hunting . . . . too bad they don't have the manpower or money to do it right! DFG Director Ryan Brodrick and the state's Fish and Game Wardens' Association are aggravated and feel thwarted. That's because the game wardens in California is now the lowest per capita in history . . . imagine 190 in the field for 37 million people. Most wildlife areas get no enforcement at all. Governor Schwarzenegger vetoed a bill that would have funded $5 million for for new warden positions. Game wardens are paid $30K less per year than CHP so it's no surprise why the skills go elsewhere.

Friday, April 21, 2006

What's the point?

What's the point of being rich if you're up to your eyeballs in debt?

That's the first thought that crossed my mind when a friend pointed out the fine print from a recent report saying that a quarter of all American millionaires carry a second mortgage on a home.

Thursday, April 20, 2006

"boomeritas"

There's a new name in medical cirlces that refers to the penchant of those born between 1946 and 1964 (baby boomers) to replace knees, ankles, hips; along with ligament and cartilage treatments, tendinitis, arthritis, bursitis and stress fractures. The name for the the results of a generation that has grown up with exercising to be fit and remain active . . . . . . unfortunately, all the over activity is causing breakdowns in the bones and body. read the story in the New York Times

Taxes

Now that you've filed or extended you might like to know that there are 66,498 pages of federal tax rules in the commonly used Standard Federal Tax Reporter. In 1913, when the federal income tax was introduced, there were 400 pages. There, doesn't that make you feel better?

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Largest Earthquakes in American History

of the top 10 largest earthquakes in US history it's interesting to note that they all took place in Alaska or . . . .drum roll please . . . . Missouri! Yes, 3 of the largest earthquakes took place in New Madrid, MO back the late 19th century and the earthquakes were so large, they altered the Mississippi River!

Monday, April 17, 2006

Followup on the Pandemic

Some time ago I asked what ever happened with the President Bush's $12 billion pledge to protect us from a bird flue pandemic . . . now I find at least a website that can help . . . click here.

Sunday, April 16, 2006

interesting comment on the tech meltdown in 2000

from James Altucher at thestreet.com

"Worth noting that six years ago today, April 14, 2000, was the "tech crash" - the largest drop in Nasdaq history when it fell 355 points. I had sold my first company, Reset, to a publicly traded company that lost about 60% of its value on that day. Very unpleasant. I was trying to take another company I had started, public, but the IPO market completely died for three years. Starting around 2001-2 all my banker "friends" started telling me (when they were talking to me at all) that "the Internet is a scam" or "tech is dead". Many break-even, or even profitable, tech companies were trading for less than the cash they had in the bank. More than 200 VC firms shut down. 150,000 people lost their jobs in a 10 block radius of where my first company was (21st and 5th).

Six years ago today probably began the worst 3 year period in my life but now, looking back at it, there will probably never be another period like that where the opportunity is so immense."

Skin Cancer Prevention

I now know that the American Academy of Dermatology has a free skin cancer screening program thanks to Dear Abby Advice. The good news is that 95% of skin cancers are cured primarily because of early detection. Go the AAD's website to find a screening near you . . . click here or call 888-462-3376

Saturday, April 15, 2006

California government is not as open as it should be

Californian's Aware is a non-profit organization that supports and defends open government and designed a test to determine how state agencies and their compliance with state laws on open government are doing. Recently, most agencies failed the test . . . read the results at their website . . . click here

Friday, April 14, 2006

Mason Dixon Line

You know where it is don't you? The Mason Dixon line which is so often referred to as the dividing line between the Northern states and Southern states was created by two British astronomers in 1765. The line runs horizontally along the border of Maryland and Delaware . . . read more at this link

Thursday, April 13, 2006

General Harold Johnson, Army chief 1964-68

All of this reminds me of another general 40 years ago. His name was Harold K. Johnson. He was chief of staff of the Army from 1964 to 1968. Johnson was a 1933 graduate of West Point. He was in the Philippines when World War II broke out and survived the Bataan death march and four years in the Japanese prison camps. His faith kept him going. He was a Baptist preacher when he wasn't soldiering.

Harold Johnson commanded at battalion and brigade level in the 1st Cavalry Division in Korea and earned a Distinguished Service Cross, the nation's 2nd highest award for valor.

In early July 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson ordered the 1st Cavalry Division (Airmobile) and other sizeable units to deploy to South Vietnam in a major escalation of the war. What he refused to do was follow the advice of his military commanders and declare a national emergency that would freeze discharges of all soldiers.

President Johnson wanted to fight the Vietnam War on the cheap and on the quiet. He didn't want to disturb middle-class America or Congress for fear they would want to pay for the war by cutting back on his Great Society social and welfare programs. So he would send off Army units seriously under strength, leaving behind the best-trained soldiers whose enlistments or draft tours were near an end.

Gen. Johnson was furious. He summoned his car and on the way to the White House he removed the eight silver stars from his shoulders. But the general was debating with himself the whole way, and just short of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue he ordered the driver to turn around. Gen. Johnson had convinced himself that if he resigned in protest LBJ would replace him in a matter of hours with someone much worse and more pliable. So it was best to remain and work from within to fix what he could.

Not long before he died, in the fall of 1983, Harold Johnson sat beside an old friend at a West Point Alumni Association officers meeting. He recounted that day and told his friend: "I count that as the greatest moral failure of my life. I should have resigned and fought the decision."

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

March was the wettest month on record

if you live in Central or Northern California, I don't have to tell how much it rained in March . . . YOU KNOW. as of 4PM Tuesday, Oakland, CA was 133% of normal rainfall for the year that ends July 1, with 28.69 inches, more than 7 inches above normal, San Francisco is at 154% and on and on. more rain is in the forecast too. click here to read the story

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Dylan's first LP only cost $402 to produce

That's all it cost to record Bob Dylan's first LP for Columbia Records in 1961. He recorded 18 songs in 2 three hour sessions accompanying himself on the guitar. Interstingly, Columbia wasn't too sure about the LP and began to think that legendary John Hammond's golden years had erroded so they delayed releasing it until March 1962 and it only sold 5000 copies in the first year!

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Taxaholics take note

Two recent newspaper stories underscored a problem several states are experiencing--stagnant or falling populations. The New York Times ran a piece about young people fleeing the Green Mountain State of Vermont for greener pastures, citing the lack of job opportunities. Around the same time, the Des Moines Register ran a special section on Iowa's population problem. A century ago the Hawkeye State was home to 3% of the U.S. population; today it's home to just 1%. Young people have been leaving in droves for decades. Both stories cited experts and politicians who offered up various solutions to stem the tide, yet both papers ignored the proverbial elephant in the room: taxes. These two states are punishers when it comes to laying levies on income. In Iowa the top income tax rate is nearly 9%, one of the highest in the country. In Vermont it's even worse, 9.5%.

Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Old Irish Proverb

There are two versions of every story and twelve versions of every song.

Monday, March 27, 2006

Love's Gonna Live Here

No matter what you thought about Buck Owens, he was huge to country music. Rockabilly owes itself to Buck. One of my favorite songs that he wrote is "Love's Gonna Live Here". Ringo has Buck to thank for his biggest hit, "Act Naturally".

Saturday, March 25, 2006

Google

When Google launched it's finance page last week, I said it was time to buy, heck it's down from $470 so I picked up some shares at $350 then watched it promptly head down to $340 . . . . then it was added to the S&P 500 on Friday . . . . instantly $26 higher. Google has a market cap of $104 billion.

Friday, March 24, 2006

the Real Estate bubble bursting . . . are we there yet?

So, is the wealth created by real estate an illusion or not? That comes down to what side of the housing bubble debate you are on. What is clear is that without the gains in household real estate equity during the past several years, there would have been no wealth creation. This just adds to the danger of the housing bubble. Essentially, we have not been creating other wealth to go along with the increase in real estate equity. Therefore, if the housing bubble bursts, then we have not created other wealth to fall back on. Remember, when you account for inflation the picture is even worse. Adjusted for inflation the mean household net worth in the U.S. from 1999 through the 3rd quarter of 2004 is down substantially. It should also be noted that median household net worth in the U.S. is far less than the mean. In 2000 median household net worth was $55,000. Accordingly, most households don’t have as big of a nest egg as the mean household net worth numbers suggest.

Thursday, March 23, 2006

Avian Flu legislation . . . whatever happened?

Remember back a few months ago when the political hot button was Avian flu and how the US is unprepared for a pandemic? Back then President Bush called for $7 billion dollars to make us ready . . . . wonder what ever happened to that legislation? Isn't interesting that something that has been lableled by most administration topsiders as more threatening than terrorism has lost it's place in the media spotlight?

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

When you're on your own in the wilderness . . .

Drink before you're thirsty, eat before you're hungary, get warm before you're chilled to the bone and rest before you're exhausted. You just can't let your energy reserves fall danerously low.

Monday, March 20, 2006

Remebering Harry Browne

One of the great intellectual and political thinkers has passed away. Harry Browne was the heart and soul of libertarianism. He was also the party's Presidential candidate during the last two elections (I voted for him both times). If you ever wondered what libertarianism is all about, you didn't have to go any further to read or listen to
Harry Browne
Harry died as a result of complications from Lou Gehrig's disease. We must find a cure for this disease.

Technology is where it's at . . . .

Aside from their economic importance, technology stocks also are a good measure of speculative health. When market players are especially bullish and anxious to put cash to work they will almost always gravitate to technology stocks simply because they tend to be fast movers. If we don't have strong speculative action in the group we have to be concerned about how long it will persist elsewhere.

Friday, March 17, 2006

Billionaires

According to Forbes Magazine, last year saw and addtional 102 billionaires come on board to that most rare list. Now there are 793 billionaires on the planet. For those of you who can't quite get it . . . ... a billionaire is

1,000,000,000.00

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Opium production in Afghanistan is now 90% of the world's supply

According to an internal report for the American Special Forces on what's been going on in Afghanistan, opium production has gone from 74 metric tons a year under the Taliban to an astonishing 3600 metric tons, which is almost 90% of the worlds production. Profits from the drug trade equal $2 billion per year and is funding the insurgency.

Friday, March 10, 2006

Does God sanction homophobia??

In a very thought provoking op-ed piece in the Miami Herald, Leonard Pitts writes about how some people use the bible to promote their biases by quoting scriptures and ignoring other quotes from the bible that are conflicting at best . . . read his piece here

Thursday, March 09, 2006

AIX is the symbol for Access Integrated Technologies

Most theaters are still run the old-fashioned way. Studios duplicate film reels and ship them out to the theater owners. It costs the moviemakers about $1,000 for every screen showing their film. It was never an attractive proposition, even before the patron defections. AIX specializes in digital projectors. Studios don't need to ship out costly copies of the film. Instead, they simply beam the movie over to the local theater.

It doesn't just make economical sense. It also gives the studio and theater operator a great deal of flexibility. Studios can beam over new versions with things like bonus footage, new endings, and bloopers to keep audiences coming back. Digital distribution also opens up the potential for live concert and sporting event broadcasts. AIX isn't the only company in this promising field. Thomson's Technicolor Digital Cinema subsidiary is making major inroads here. AIX just happens to be the pure play. Learn more about Access IT here

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Housing Comments from the NY Times

". . . .Washington Mutual Inc., one of the nation's largest residential mortgage lender, had announced that it was closing ten ( or 38%) of its loan processing centers, which would result in a 2,500 person staff reduction. Well, in the grand scheme of things, 2,500 workers is not even a rounding error. But we have not yet experienced the housing bust, five consecutive months of declining used home sales notwithstanding.

But if we do have a housing bust -- and we likely will if Bernanke does not soon declare a ceasefire -- then a lot more than a rounding error of workers could be lining up for unemployment insurance. The cutback in spending by these unemployed would have a, excuse the Keynesian _expression, multiplier effect on total spending in the economy -- adding some homeowners not associated with the residential real estate industry to the length of the unemployment lines."
read the whole story here

The Largest Telephone Company

Let's see now, the government broke up AT&T in 1984 amid cries that it was too big and not in the best interesets of consumers . . . . fast foward to yesterday when AT&T announced that it would buy Bell South. SBC owns AT&T so aren't all the pieces back together again?

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Photos of the 1906 SF Earthquake

A new exhibit at the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art will show a wide range of photographic views of the earthquake stricken city. After 2 years of considering thoughsands of candidates from public sources and private collections the curator, Corey Keller selected 100 images for the exhibit. learn more at

Monday, March 06, 2006

Crash

Knew it would win. What a great film.

What's causing the volatility and weakness?

The main driving force for this weakness is interest rates. An easy way to see this is to look at the iShares Lehman 20-year Treasury Fund ETF (TLT:AMEX), which has fallen sharply for four days now and is approaching levels we saw in November. In some respects this is a positive, because it indirectly accomplishes what the Fed said it plans to do by raising interest rates.

Rain falling on the surface of the ocean can be heard a mile deep

and at some frequecies it's louder than passing ships, according to oceanopgraher Jeff Nystuen. Nystuen, of Applied Physics Laboratory at the U of Wash, is one among scientists studying how sound travels through the ocean to better understand how loud, manmade noises might affect marine creatures. Loud underwater noises, particularly US Navy sonar, have long been blamed by environmentalists for the fatal beachings of whales. The Natural Resources Defense Council and other plaintiffs alleged in a federal lawsuit last fall that the Navy's mid-frequency sonar used for detecting enemy submarines disturbs and somtimes kills whales and dolphins. The Navy settled a similar lawsuit 3 years ago by agreeing to limit it's peacetime use of experimental low-frequency sonar.

Friday, March 03, 2006

They are not the Anaheim Angels!

Orange Country Superior Court Judge Peter J Polos ruled that he had no authoirty to reverse the ruling of a jury that 3 weeks ago decided in the teams favor . . . . they are the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

is this funny or what?

Thursday, March 02, 2006

Tom Paine

Progressives have to be a like the Irishman walking down the street who comes up to a brawl and says, "Is this a private fight or can anybody get in?" check out what progressives think and say at TomPain.com

Posturing over Ports more hypocrisy

David Corn at Tom Paine.com writes

Furthermore, these critics are overlooking a not-so-easy-to-exploit reason for questioning the transaction.

The UAE is an autocracy that affords its residents few, if any, guaranteed rights. Human Rights Watch reports that the UAE

does not hold elections for any public office, and political participation is limited to the ruling family in each emirate. The government has not signed most international human rights and labor rights treaties. Migrant workers, comprising nearly 90 percent of the workforce in the private sector, are particularly vulnerable to serious human rights violations.

If it is the United States' mission and obligation to spread democracy and freedom across the globe, as George W. Bush insists, should it be doing significant business with autocrats? Just last Friday, Bush defended the war in Iraq by saying, "Our freedom agenda is based on a clear premise: the security of our nation depends on the advance of liberty in other nations." Dubai Ports World is controlled by a government that does not allow its people to govern themselves. What message does Washington send if it opens its arms to corporate entities run by such rulers?

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Google Video

just another great website developed by Google. Google Video Google is partnering with the National Archives to make available all of the films held there (which heretofore were only available if you went to Washington DC to see them). There are also TV shows, Sports, News, Music Videos and on and on . . . . pretty soon I won't need my TV set.

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Folk Music

Jazz musician Louis Armstrong and blues musician Big Bill Broonzy have both been attributed the remark "All music is folk music. I ain't never heard a horse sing a song."

Monday, February 27, 2006

1 Billion iTunes later

I was considering purchasing my first iTune from Apple's website Music Store on Sunday (Feb 26) . . . a great tune from Randy Travis, A Better Class of Losers but I decided against it. Darn, if I had done so, maybe I'd have been the 1 billionith tune buyer and been showered with gifts like Alex Ostrovsky was when he downloaded Coldplay's "Speed of Sound". Apple has only been in the "itune" business for 3 years!
Mr Ostrovsky (16 years old) received 1 20" iMac G5, 10 fifth generation iPods and a $10,000 iTunes gift card.
That could have been me.

Tour of California

Did you get a chance to watch any of the Amgen Tour of California? Worldclass racers from Europe and the US raced from San Franciso to Redondo Beach in the inaugural event watched by over 1,300,000 during the route that came down Big Sur Highway 1 to San Luis Obispo through Santa Barbara and on to Redondo Beach. Many of the riders have competed with Lance Armstrong and won stages in the Tour of France and other major tours in Europe. check it out at TOC Floyd Landis, former teammate of Lance Armstrong won the 596 mile event.

Friday, February 17, 2006

Comparing Diets for Weight Loss and Heart Disease Risk Reduction

The Journal of American Medecine reported last year an interesting comparison

click here

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Google . . . . . is it time ?

Just in case you've been waiting to buy Google GOOG, it's now fallen a breathtaking 26%. That number doesn't impress you? OK, how about $475 to $342, that's a $133 haircut in a little over a month.

Bicycle Tour de France . . . . . nah

The Tour of California stops in San Luis Obispo after completing the leg down Big Sur.

Learn more at The Tour of California

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Real Estate Values

interesting website to look at values

zillow.com

Thursday, February 09, 2006

Voice Over Internet

Have you thought of making a telephone call over the internet? There are many computer/internet based systems but what about another way. My friend Steve Curtis works with a company that offers another way to save money on long distance Chatterbug

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Fix Congress, Not the Lobbyists

THIS IS ONE OF THOSE moments when you realize Congress is not an altogether serious body. There have been others. One that comes to mind is the frantic effort several decades ago to stop the National Football League from blacking out home games on local television (unless stadium tickets have already sold out). This time it's worse. The current drive for lobbying reform is purely cosmetic. And it skirts the real issue. Lobbyists, for all their selfish intentions and dubious methods, aren't the problem. Members of Congress and the way they spend taxpayers' money are. The case that does involves Republican Rep. DukeCunningham of California, who resigned from Congress after admitting taking bribes. This case exposed the incentives to corruption produced by the spending and budget practices of Congress. For a price, Cunningham would slip spending measures into appropriations bills with practically no one's noticing. The sheer complexity and opaqueness of the budget made it easy to do so. read more at the weekly standard

Friday, February 03, 2006

Supergrass in Bakersfield

The California Bluegrass Association is putting on the first big Bluegrass Festival in Bakersfield. I'm here, it's great and the music on stage is excellent but the jamming in the rooms and hallways of the Holiday Inn is just as exciting. Learn about it at this link . . . . http://supergrasscalifornia.org/

Monday, January 30, 2006

Bank Horror Stories

Do you have a story about a bad occurence at your bank (or better yet, your old bank)? Everyone does . . . . well, Steve Lopez or the LA Times did a couple of articles on the subject. here is is latest piece . . . you go to this link and then follow the rest . . . . it's a great read. Steve Lopez

Friday, January 27, 2006

SEX.COM domain name sold . . . . don't you wish you had registered it?

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Representation Bias

That daily bar chart is a good example of the first heuristic, which everyone uses, called the "law of representation." What it means is that people assume that when something is supposed to represent something, it really is what it is supposed to represent. Thus, most of us just look at the daily bar and accept that it represents a days worth of trading . . . . in reality, it's just a line on a piece of paper - no more no less. I might add that depending on which source of data you receive, the bar can be correct or incorrect. Many times, I've looked at a daily bar that was very long only to discover that a bad tick occurred at some extreme end of the price distribution, which the data provider didn't correct. This error resulted in a bar that was incorrect. Why is this important? Because many indicators use the range of prices of the day to represent something, ie and moving average.

Monday, January 23, 2006

Judgemental Bias series

I'm going to post a series of articles describing the various biases that affect people and especially those trying to master markets (trade).

"We typically trade our beliefs about the market and once we've made up our minds about those beliefs, we're not likely to change them. And when we play the markets, we assume that we are consdering all of the available information. Instead, our beliefs, through selective perception, may have elinminated the most useful information." Van K. Tharp, Ph.D. and founder of IITM

Friday, January 20, 2006

If you dug a very deep hole somewhere . . . .

where would it come out? like on the other side of the planet from where you started. well, now you can find out. click on DIGHERE and give it a try

Thursday, January 19, 2006

Kopi Luwak coffee

OK, I know that you've never heard of it . . . . that's why you check my blog, right? to learn about "interesting or what" stuff like this.

check out Wikipedia Encyclopedi

These coffees, from Jamaican Blue Mountain to Kona to Tanzanian Peaberry, command a premium price. But perhaps no coffee in the world is in such short supply, has such unique flavors and an, um, interesting background as Kopi Luwak. And no coffee even comes close in price: Kopi Luwak sells for $75 per quarter pound. Granted, that's substantially less than marijuana, but it's still unimaginably high for coffee. click here

Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Norman Vaughn climbed Mt Vaughn 3 days before his 89th birthday

Days before his 89th birthday he and his wife, Carolyn Muegge-Vaughan, returned to Antarctica and climbed to the summit of 10,320-foot Mount Vaughan, the mountain Byrd named in his honor.

"It was the climax of our dream," he told The Associated Press in a 2005 interview at his Anchorage home. "We had to risk failure to get there. We dared to fail."

Vaughan continued to seek adventure his entire life. His exploits included finishing the 1,100 mile-Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race six times after age 70. At age 96, he carried the Olympic torch in Juneau, passing the flame from a wheelchair, 70 years after he competed in the Olympics as a sled dog racer.

you learn more at the CNN.com article on his passing last month . . . . .

Monday, January 16, 2006

DARPA and the $2,000,000 un-manned vehicle award

you probably never heard of DARPA , the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency . . . . your tax dollars at work . . . . and I really think this is good stuff. DARPA is apart of the DoD . . . It manages and directs selected basic and applied research and development projects for DoD, and pursues research and technology where risk and payoff are both very high and where success may provide dramatic advances for traditional military roles and missions. The Grand Challenge website is where you can learn about the innovations around the US working to meet the challenge and create vehicles that will save lives and advance technololgy. $2,000,000 was awarded to the winner, Stanford's "Stanely".

Saturday, January 14, 2006

According to Keith Richards . . . .

I've been reading my "Rolling Stone Interviews '67-'80" and just finished reading one with Keith Richards in 1971. He talks about Rolling Stones Records with the "Kali" tongue. We all know what that image looks like and it truly has become a brand image for the Stones but in this interview Keith knows that it will become this icon. Kali is the Hindu female goddess with 5 arms, a row of head , a saber in one hand, flames coming out the other and she stands there with her tongue out. So now you know where that image came from . . . . .

Friday, January 13, 2006

Friday the 13th

I've never had a problem with Friday the 13th. In fact tonight I'll be playing my first gig in town and am sure we'll have a blast.

But how about this for a Friday the 13th event : On Friday, August 13, 1982, the Dow had an historic breakout day, leaping 11 points to 788. (Eleven points is roughly equal to 153 points at today's elevation.) The market never looked back. That was the beginning of the Grand Bull Market that didn't end until the year 2000.

Sedan or Sudan . . . . ah, it was a mistake

I'm revisiting a note from my friend Dan Dominy who noticed this little piece last March . . . . transcribing is always a problem if no one is checking. If you're like me, you're pretty skeptical of the media . . .

from CNN writer Mike Ahlers

"WASHINGTON (CNN) -- There's an old saying that a lie can travel halfway around the world before the truth puts its boots on. Let it be known that mistakes can travel just as fast -- and just as far. Take the case of Rep. Ellen Tauscher, D-California, who at a hearing on Capitol Hill last week spoke about a 1962 nuclear test in the Nevada desert. The test was code named "Project Sedan." Tauscher's remarks were little noticed, until they were transcribed -- incorrectly -- in an unofficial transcript of the hearing. One letter was changed. The "Sedan" nuclear test became the "Sudan" nuclear test.

And the government of Sudan took notice. Less than a day after Tauscher uttered her words, and after they were incorrectly transcribed, Sudanese officials evidently were alerted to the transcript. The Sudanese Foreign Ministry summoned the U.S. charge d'affaires in Khartoum and demanded an explanation about the supposedly secret nuclear tests in the east African country . . . . "

you can read the rest of the story at here

Thursday, January 12, 2006

A Million Little Pieces is a million dollar fraud

Over the holidays it seemed like everywhere you looked someone was reading Oprah's book of the month or whatever it was, called "A Million Little Pieces". Yep, my wife was reading it and so I decided to take a gander at it after she finished it. Lying by the pool in Mazatlan I quickly got the feeling that this was a hoax . . . . I mean, if the guy was that drugged out and boozed up for 20 years or whatever . . . he wouldn't have remembered his own name let alone the details of all the crap he wrote about but the real clincher for me was the part where he had 2 root canals without anasthesia . . . . huh? did you believe that part?? Yeah, I was cringing while I read it but all the time knew if was a bold faced lie . . . . . then I asked a dentist friend of mind why someone would have to go through a root canal without drugs because he was a drug addict. My friend said . . . . topical pain suppressants wouldn't cause a relapse or any problem . . . and then she said that she hadn't heard of anyone having a root canal without anasthesia. That satisfied me . . . the book was bull%#*^. I knew then the book was a hoax.

Now I feel vindicated as the whole world knows that it's a hoax. The publishing industry is now on notice that they cannot be trusted.

Most interesting point is that when Double Day first decided to publish it, the book was offered as fiction . . . . yeah. Then they decided no one was interested in it as fiction so they decided to publish it as non-fiction.

Oprah has a credability problem now too. And she's still standing behind the book's author. duh????

read about it in at CNN.com

check out thesmokinggun.com for more.

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Howard Stern

talk about getting a boatload of money . . . . no CEO of a publicly traded company on the planet can match the Howard Stern bounty from Sirius Radio . . . first they sign up with a 5 year $500 million deal . . . . now they announce they're giving Stern and his agent 34,400,000 shares of stock - read about it here

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

iTunes selling at an amazing clip

Steve Jobs announced today at MacWorld that Apple is selling 3 million songs per day . . . . PER DAY. Wow. I've never purchased a song over the internet but I use iTunes everyday.

Monday, January 09, 2006

iPod Users Beware

Pete Townsend (the Who) is warning people to turn down the volume, I think his hearing loss is from years and years of fronting one of the loudest bands ever (also the best) not from studio headphones but you can read about it here

Sunday, January 08, 2006

Denial

Three areas of denial: debt, age and law.
People deny they are in debt and add more
People deny they are getting older by medically trying to look younger and last longer.
People deny the law, breaking it with no compunction. Ever drive the speed limit and get run off the road?

People are denying today like they've never denied before. Think about it.

Common Cold Time

I came down with a cold right before New Year's Eve . . . . and I thought I was healthy. But that really has nothing to do with catching the common cold. Learn more at a great new website Common Cold

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

The Passenger

from a review by Jake Meany of Stylus Magazine . . .

"And then there's the simply stunning release, the consummation of both Locke's journey and that of the restless camera. As Locke flops down on a hotel bed to meet his end, the camera pans away and comes to rest gazing out through the barred hotel window. An apt metaphor, this prison that always awaits us at the end, no matter how much we try to escape it. Except, in a remarkable single tracking shot that must go on for a good eight or nine minutes, the camera begins a long slow glide towards the window, pushes through the bars and then makes a circuit of the barren town square just outside the hotel, as the girl wanders about confusedly, a young child throws stones at an old man, and cars arrive bearing the guerrillas, and then the wife and the police—and then it slowly curves back towards the hotel, back through the window, to find Locke dead on the bed. It's brauva filmmaking, as confident and exciting as the famous opening of Touch of Evil, and is probably the only way The Passenger could've satisfactorily answered its central conundrum in a way that wasn't totally despairing. In this shot, in this final release, this ultimate disappearance, this pushing out through the bars, Locke finally yields to the void he'd been trying to escape throughout the film, and only then does he find his salvation, closing the circle and vanishing into it—freedom, at last."

this is a must see film