Been too long since I posted -

that being said, I'm wondering if anyone is reading anyway. if so, send me an comment. thanks.

Craig

Thank you Chinese !!!

China in July held almost $847 billion in U.S. Treasuries, more than double the amount it held four years earlier.

CRAZY WEATHER HERE

local weather forecaster reports today . . . .

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITION 10-5-2010 : In one week's time we have transitioned from a late September heat wave, to a North American monsoon condition to a early spring type of weather pattern with strong to gale force (24 and 38 mph) northwesterly winds and much cooler temperatures.
Last Saturday evening a band of thunderstorms developed over the Carrizo Plains and Shandon and stretched westward towards Atascadero, producing lightning and thunder and roughly between quarter to half an inch of rain. However, the majority of weather stations in San Luis Obispo County had no measurable rainfall.

The flue that wasn't

By now everyone knows that the pandemic scare foisted upon us last year was a total bust. here's a good blog that explores it click here

What's more dangerous? texting or being drunk?

Well, it turns out that texting is far more dangerous. A recent study found that on average, driving at 70mph, one man braking suddenly while legally drunk (0.80 blood alcohol) traveled 4' beyond his baseline performance. But reading an e-mail while driving sober, he traveled 36' beyond the baseline result and 7' while sending a text; in the worst case while texting, he traveled 319' before stopping.

HEY PEOPLE, STOP using your cellphone when your driving!

Sittin' on Top of the World

This is a great song which has been done by bluegrass bands and blues groups for decades. I first heard when Cream performed it and then later was reintroduced to it at a bluegrass jam. But it wasn't until two nights ago while listening to a local radio station that I heard who originated the song . . . . The Mississippi Shieks! check it out here and here and click here to listen to the their original song

gold mining issues - here come the majors, goodbye to the minors

exploration spending will clock in at $11.5 billion read more here

TARP is over

Well, it's finally done . . . did it do it's job? Only time will tell. read more here

Brent Morel has made the show

former Cal Poly standout, Brent Morel is playing in the big leagues with the White Sox. ever since my friend Craig Wallenbrock, Morel's former hitting coach, alerted me to his abilities, I've been following him at Cal Poly and in the minors. check him here

with whom not where

On the subject of camping, a friend of mine says . . . "my ex (and a few girlfriends) proved that it's more important who you go with than where you go."

good news on debt of the consumer

Richard Berner, the co-head of global economics for Morgan Stanley in New York, says “The de-leveraging timetable is nearly a year ahead of schedule.” Giving the consumer more room to spend in the future.

for those of you who don't understand owning GOLD

People don't own gold because they want to, they own it because they feel they have to. It's called self defense.

Weather can do amazing things

Got this from a buddy who travels to Canyonlands each year, guess he won't be going down this road anymore . . .

How about this for a derivative product?

in the UK they are creating a social impact bond derivative tied to the performance of a non-profit; 1st instance: reduce the rate of re-offending by young prisoners. Private investors put up capital and get a return based on recidivism (between 7.5 - 14%). Big Society Bank needs for "social impact investments" to be classified as legitimate asset classes.

Ray Floyd - there wasn't anyone better

20 Million Things (to do) by Lowell George

If it's fix a fence, fender dents
I've got lots of experience
Rent gets spent
All the letters never written, that don't get sent
It comes from confusion, all things I left undone
It comes from moment to moment, day to day
The time seems to slip away

But I've got twenty million things to do, twenty million things
All I can think about is you
With twenty million things
Twenty million things to do

I've got mysterious wisteria hanging in the air
The rocking chair I was supposed to fix
Well it came undid
And all the things that I let slip, I found out quick
It comes from moment to moment, day to day
The time seems to slip away

But I've got twenty million things to do, twenty million things
All I can do, is think about you
With twenty million
Twenty million things to do

The Hindenberg Omen is nigh

1 That the daily number of new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must be greater than 2.2 percent of total issues traded that day.
2 That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
3 That the NYSE 10 Week Moving average is rising.
4 That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
5 That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.
On 8/12/2020, all five conditions were satisfied.
June 2008 was another such reconfirmed event, and as Barron's pointed out then, "there's a 25% probability of a full-blown stock-market crash in the next 120 days. Caveat emptor." Boy was the emptor caveating within 120 days (especially if said emptor was named Dick Fuld). Which brings us to the present: should the Omen be reconfirmed within 36 days, all bets are off.

Are you a truth seeker, or a truth obscurer?

"When the entire edifice rests on falsehoods, mistruths, faulty assumptions, false premises, future outcomes, as we have seen over the past few years, can be horrific. History teaches us that eventually, the Truth will reveal itself. When that happens, there can be terrible consequences: Economies collapse, wars occur, empires crumble, millions die.

Whenever I read a major policy piece, newspaper article, or OpEd, I ask the following question: Is this person a truth seeker, or a truth obscurer? When you see nasty posts that dissect/shred/fisk these, it is because I was not happy with the answer to that question."

from a piece by Barry Ritholz click here

on the subject of AIG and what should have happened . . .

Barry Ritholz writes

AIG ? There never was an implicit government guarantee that all counter-parties dealing with AIG-Financial Products — a giant leveraged structured finance hedge fund hiding under the skirt of the regulated insurer — would be made whole. But the Bush/Paulson/Bernanke bailout created one. Instead, AIG-FP should have been carved out for dissolution/wind down, while the insurer could have continued to exist on its own. AIG would have had the liability for the government’s costs, but the counter parties? They would have gotten zero. If you go to Vegas and shoot craps in the alley way behind the casino, don’t expect the gaming commission to collect your winnings. But that is what we did with AIG.

read his whole take on the subject here, it's fascinating and really good

Highest taxes in the nation for Californians

A new proposal to help balance California's budget calls for $600 million oil tax which will mean higher gas prices for Californians. As the Majority wants to impose new taxes on oil production in California, this will surely raise gas prices even higher. Californians already pay the highest gas taxes in the nation at 63.9 cents per gallon.

The public sector has become more attractive than the private sector.

Wow, that's a revelation isn't it?
“Anyone who wants to work an interesting job, earn a generous salary, enjoy unbeatable, rock-solid job security and, most importantly, advance the public good in pivotal ways would probably favor the federal sector,” said Lily Whiteman, Federal Careers Expert. Ms. Whiteman continues on to say, “...government employees seem to work shorter hours, have more vacation time, access unbelievable health care, never worry about job security and even make more money than people slugging it out in the private sector.”

Anamorphic Image

Hans Holbein, the court artist of Henry VIII painted The Ambassadors (pictured here) with an anamorphic image of a skull within it. In addition there are several symbolic images and hidden meanings (the sheet music has been identified as a piece composed by Martin Luther. . . read more here

from John Wooden's father . . .

"Make each day your masterpiece."

Insider Trading . . . the political kind

Every knows (or should know) that once elected officials "retire" they immediately go to work in the private sector peddling influence . . . you know, "special interests". Read about what Nassim Taleb is railing about now . . .

"Think about it a bit further: the more complex the regulation, the more bureaucratic the network, the more a regulator who knows the loops and glitches would benefit from it later, as his regulator edge would be a convex function of his differential knowledge. This is a franchise. (Note that this franchise is not limited to finance; the car company Toyota hired former U.S. regulators and used their "expertise" to handle investigations of its car defects). "

to read the whole story click here

Deduction

Deduction is based on inference. you take the evidence given, you call upon experience from past examples and you infer from a combination of this evidence and experience that the past experience will repeat.

How is the CPI figured?

The prices of 95,000 items from 22,000 stores, and 35,000 rental units are added together and averaged. They are weighted this way: Housing: 41.4%, Food and Beverage: 17.4%, Transport: 17.0%, Medical Care: 6.9%, Other: 6.9%, Apparel: 6.0%, Entertainment: 4.4%.

Do you think that represents the way you experience prices? I don't. Nothing here about taxes, city, county, state of government fees. Nor does it take into account the size of the product shrinking or getting larger relative to it's price.

thought of the day

"There is no vengeance which maybe be inflicted, as biting and as limitless as regret." Anonymous

Does the Fed really know what it's doing and why we should care

Because, what the Fed announces it's going to do and what it does somehow affects people's emotions about the economy and their pocketbooks, etc. But should it?

As the WSJ article points out, it was only about four months ago that the Fed thought it could exit its quantitative easing program, and now it is looking for ways to restart the process.

Deflation ???

Folks had better be prepared for more food inflation, as the price of grains has been going wild, along with various other items such as chocolate and hogs. It's a good thing food and energy are excluded from the inflation/deflation debate.

The Fall . . . . a visual feast of a movie

Maybe I haven't said it before but I do believe that Netflix sends us DVDs we haven't ordered but they think we'd like to see and the most recent is right on target . . . The Fall, a movie that you might want to see for no other reason than because it exists. There will never be another like it. It is a visual feast from the 28 locations around the world to the sets to the actor's costumes, the lighting, camera angles . . . it's magnificent. The plot is a tough to figure out but the little girl is a star in the making. Click here to see some previews

Last week I attended a luthier camp

and began building a mandola from a kit made by Roger Siminoff. Click here to learn more about being a luthier

Home Ownership Info

Today a report is showing that the share of homes empty and for sale, known as the vacancy rate, was 2.5 percent, matching the year-earlier period and down from 2.6 percent in the first quarter, the Census Bureau said. The homeownership rate fell from 67.1 percent in the first quarter, the third straight decline. The rate reached a record high of 69.2 percent in the second and fourth quarters of 2004. It was when it was announced in 2004 that homeownership hit a record that I said to myself, "self, who's left to buy?" and promptly sold our home.

Millionaire tax returns

for the tax year of 2008, the IRS reports : "Tax returns of $1 million plus fell by 22% to 321,294"

USC athletic director Garrett out and Haden in

Amen!

How has touring changed?

A question posed to rock legend Pat Benatar . . . her answer - Not that much. I said to somebody the other day when something was going south with the sound equipment, "The entire world has moved forward and we're still in the dark ages." But the soul of touring and the heart of it is basically every day is like putting up a circus tent. All these crew members get up early in the morning, they put the show together, you go out there and you do it and the audiences come and you tear it down, get back on the bus. It's like a traveling road show just like it's always been and that's the party I really really love.

Dave Cox - rest in peace

When we lived in Fair Oaks, Dave became a friend, he represented Fair Oaks in the California Assembly and when termed out, ran successfully for the Senate. He was a good man and a Libertarian at heart. When Denny and I launched our tee shirt campaign, Dave was only too proud to don one of the tee shirts on Arnold's inauguration day.

The Hoover Dam Hwy 93 Bypass

On our trip, we crossed over Hoover Dam via Hwy 93 from Kingman, AZ side and observed the new bridge/bypass being constructed. Click here to read about the project and read why.

Illegal Immigration - what's the problem?

The problem is that no one really knows because no one is keeping data. Many Demopublicans claimed during California's last primary campaign that illegal aliens cost taxpayers and the state tens of billions of dollars each year. Thanks to the New Times, here are recent comments from those that should know because they're supposed to be keeping track of the money related to the cost . . .
“It turns out we really just don’t have the data on undocumented people because they don’t get benefits,” said Tracy Buckingham, assistant director of San Luis Obispo County Social Services.
“The city of Santa Maria does not compile statistics about the cost of undocumented residents,” spokesman Mark Van de Kamp said in a statement. “City police officers do ask the immigration status of arrestees booked into county jail, but it’s up to ICE [U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement] to determine who’s undocumented and subject to immigration holds and deportation.”
According to SLO County Administrator Jim Grant, the county collects no data on illegal immigrants and therefore has little data on cost estimates. The county is reimbursed for the costs of detaining and processing such individuals he said. In the 2005 fiscal year, for example, the county received about $200,000 in reimbursement from the State Criminal Alien Assistance Program. Last fiscal year the county received about $249,000 and Grant said it has budgeted to ask for about $275,000 this year.
SLO Sheriff’s Department spokesman Rob Bryn said the department doesn’t track illegal immigrants. “Normally we don’t track anything we’re not required to track,” he said. “And that’s just a budget issue.”
What about SLO County Auditor-Controller Gere Sibbach? Does he have any idea how many illegal immigrants are in the county or how much it costs the average legal resident?
“No I don’t,” he said. “I can’t think of anything.”

You can read the whole story here

Dead End Kids on Acid -

click here to read the story from Reason Magazine

There is a book entitled "Orange Sunshine: The Brotherhood of Eternal Love and Its Quest to Spread Peace, Love and Acid to the World" by Nicholas Schou.

Making money after death - Michael Jackson style

Since Jackson died at the age of 50, his estate has generated over $250 million, with about $125 million coming from sales of Jackson’s own recordings, $60 million from an advance for the “This is It” theatrical documentary, about $35 million from music publishing, and more than $50 million from merchandise such as video games, one of the people said.

Across the Bluegrass - Country Music Divide

When the Wall Street Journal writes about music, they do a good job click here

Fiery Spacecraft Re-entry video

This is spectacular . . . click here

Some of my fraternity brothers will gather at the College World Series

This is a note from Mike Ball.

Thought that you might like to know that the NCAA is recognizing the 1970 USC National Champ baseball team on the field next Saturday night June 19 at the College World Series in Omaha. ESPN is televising the games, and we're not sure if our introduction (during the 5th inning of the second round game starting at 4PM PST) will be televised...what do you think?....run commercials, or show a bunch of old guys that haven't touched a ball in 30-40 years?

This is the final year for Rosenblatt Stadium in Omaha, which coincides with the 40th anniversary of our 1970 championship, which also was the first of five titles in a row for SC...never done before and will never be done again! One of my buddies who works at the NCAA headquarters in Indianapolis (where I lived for 19 years before moving to Florida) said that the NCAA wanted to recognize USC for the 12 titles we've won, and they decided that no other school would be recognized...pretty cool!

The bros that will be in Omaha are Rick Raczka (Most Outstanding Orthpaedic Surgeon/Catcher), Jack Harrington (Most Outstanding Dentist/Water Park Developer/Pitcher), Frank Alfano (CWS All-Star Second Baseman 1970 & 71) and myself...Walt Failor, are you coming, buddy??? (and, I can't even imagine your resume!).

The other bros that were on that team, but not able to make it to Omaha, are Al Rossi (friend of Peaches O'Day), Brent Strom (5-year MLB career) and Steve Busby (only MLB pitcher to throw a no-hitter his first and second year in the bigs....a great trivia question). Hope that I didn't miss anybody.

Steve Allen does Bee Bop a Lula

You have to see this click here

The story of Kaushal Niroula

Boy, you can't make this stuff up . . . or can you? click here to read about murder, fraud, theft in San Franciso and Palm Springs and where else?

For everone who has a back problem . . .

Read about Bill Walton, former NBA and UCLA basketball player click here

Birth/Death employment estimates

I think it is well established by now that I am not a fan of the birth/death employment estimates in the establishment survey. That is where the BLS estimates the number of new jobs created by the birth or death of new businesses. It is often a significant portion of the jobs survey and it is a seasonally adjusted guess. There really is no alternative but to make this estimate, but at the beginnings of recessions it always overestimates the number of jobs, and at the beginnings of recoveries it will underestimate them.

What the heck is going on with the markets?

I have felt for sometime that "the market" doesn't behave like it used to, I couldn't quite put my finger on it but as a trader, I've felt that news and earnings and whatever just didn't seem to matter anymore or did it? Clearly the "market" is much more of a casino that it ever has been with computer programs overshadowing fundamentals (except that so many corporations are able to engineer their quarterly reports to "surprise or meet expectations" of analysts so as to make the fundamentals less important than years ago) and all you had to do to be successful was be a little ahead of the programs and you could ride each wave . . . . yes, figuring out what the computer programs are going to do isn't easy but that's where having a sense of tug and push or market wave action comes in, it isn't easy to develop this sense but many years ago I heard Ed Sakota (arguable one of the greatest traders in history) say that all you had to do was go down to the ocean and watch the waves come in and go out and you could learn about how markets go up and down . . . . it was the most important lesson I've ever learned in my trading education and I always love to go to the ocean and watch it do it's thing and remind my self that the randomness and flow of it is what I have to be aware of when trading . . . anyway, here is Bill Fleckenstein's (www.fleckensteincapital.com) comment from today . . . somewhat confirming what I've felt. I have been able to be in sync with the market (excuse me, computer programs) for sometime now.

C

Not Your Grandfather's Panic Liquidation Now I'd like to take a stab at making sense of the recent tanking of the stock market. To me, the decline of the last week or so has been different than any I've seen in my 30-year investment career -- in that it was led by the indices and not individual stocks.

When we have seen what looked like panic liquidation in the past (1987, 1990, 2000-2001, 2008, etc.), that always came nearer to the end in terms of time (though not price); and after stocks -- individually and collectively -- had been roughed up beforehand for quite some time, for very understandable reasons. One reason why I failed to see a decline of this magnitude coming: It did not evolve in a way that showed problems bubbling to the surface, but rather with the indices (and perhaps ETFs) leading the charge lower. This was like the '87 crash in reverse, whereby the panic in the indices happened first.

What I don't know is, what this decline means, whether stocks generically are now vulnerable to a wipeout, or that it's just indicative of the environment we're in -- with so many quants and hedge funds treating everything about the stock market like some kind of a trading sardine. (A derivation of today's electronic, quant-driven markets may be why the market doesn't seem to discount anything anymore, a point which I have made many times in the last 10 years.) It's not clear to me what may come next, other than that if stocks do get pounded from here, I am certain that more Fed liquidity will be forthcoming. (PS: Its balance sheet hit a new high this week, for those keeping score at home.)

Paper or Plastic bags?

Great video to settle the debate . . . click here

Erma Bombeck

She was pretty funny . . . "Housework, if you do it right, will kill you."

Taking "doing the laundry" for granted

Friends of ours are in Holland and we received this bit of "life info" comparison from them the other day . . . .

"Doing laundry is a major hassle. They don’t have ANY laundromats. There is one washer and dryer for all the boats tied up in the marina. It only takes tokens that we get from the harbormaster and it took us days to get him to remember to bring some to us. We got four, for two washes and dries. All our clothes were dirty. Then I put a token in the washing machine and it didn’t start. Rob came down and looked. The light was on, but it just wouldn’t start. We had to use another token. Then another in the dryer. After 35 minutes I walked the block down to the machine to check to see how dry they were. They were not, and if you open the door, the coin drops in the box and turns off the dryer. I pulled out the last token and it was in fact a fifty cent piece that is the same color and size as the token. It didn’t work in the machine. I had to take the clothes out, put them in a box and hang them on the clothes line back at the B&B that evening. While eating dinner it started raining. Great. They are still out there as today is to be cold but clear. It’s all part of the adventure."

Volatile Markets

I left around 11 am yesterday morning for Parkfield to be there for the opening act of the Parkfield Bluegrass Festival and didn't return home til late today. On the way I home I listened to the NPR news at 6PM PDT to learn of the chaos in the markets over the last 2 days! Unbelievable. And thankfully I wasn't at my computer watching the action as I might have made some mistakes but alas all turned out well as I was pretty short the market when I left . . . whew.

On the subject of Spain

Too big to fail is one thing; too big to bail is another.

Inflation is rearing it's ugly head

From the Washington, DC area:

Metro is moving ahead with plans to impose the largest fare increase in its history this summer, as the financially strapped transit agency prepares to make its riders shoulder the majority of the $189 million operating budget deficit for the fiscal year that begins July 1.

Boistrous Bravado of a Politician

"Holy Godfrey? What Fun?" Teddy Roosevelt leaving office to invade Cuba.

His war cry? "Rough tough, we're the stuff/We want to fight and we can't get enough?/Whoopee!"

Campaigners continue to lie

Just in case you thought things were going to change . . . ahem, "Back when Jerry Brown was governor nearly 35 years ago, in his first day in office, he gave public service unions the right to collective bargaining," Governor Candidate Whitman said. "Then a number of years later, his chief of staff, Gray Davis, who became governor, actually gave away the store to the public service unions."

Brown did not actually give collective bargaining rights to state workers on his first day in 1975, her campaign later acknowledged. Her comment apparently referred to a statement Brown made that was supportive of such benefits.

"Once again, Whitman has her facts wrong," said Brown's campaign spokesman, Sterling Clifford. Clifford noted that collective bargaining measures were approved in 1976, 1978 and 1979, covering different workers.

Confusing Regulation with Supervision

"The crisis that engulfed the world was not a failure of regulation, it was a failure of supervision. It annoys me that people seem to use 'regulation' and 'supervision' interchangeably when they are in fact two different things. Those who failed miserably at supervision now think regulation is the answer to everything." To which all I can say is: Amen, brother.

Bill Fleckenstein

Inflation or Deflation

Many "experts" are worried about deflation . . . . that's not the problem. Prices of everything are going up. For example, furniture . . . click here

Jackson Metzler shooting hoops

My grand nephew, Jackson Metzler is quite active with all sports and related activities and cars and trucks and . . . here he is a home practicing.

Gay Taenzer Kincaid 1922 - 2010

She passed in her sleep yesterday morning in Los Osos, California. What a great mom, aunt and grandmother and friend. Creative, loving and friend to all.

Michael Burry on Alan Greenspan

In his own words, Michael Burry recounts how he forecast the demise of the subprime market and how he made a fortune because of it . . . . disavowing any of the Alan Greenspan's ridiculous comments that no one "saw it coming". Click here for the NY Times op-ed piece.

Healthcare and the Supreme Court

The US Supreme Court has recognized a right to medical self-determination, notably finding it within the 5th Amendment's due-process clause.

Think inflation isn't coming back . . . read this

Steel, I large component of many products is going up in price and you can bet that the increase will be passed along. . . if you don't own some gold yet, better belly up to the bar on buy some. It's you prime protection. click here to read the story in the Financial Times

$1 trillion gap for states . . . ouch

States face a $1 trillion gap between assets in public pension plans and their obligations to retirees, a Feb. 18 study by the Washington-based Pew Center on the States said. Illinois borrowed $3.5 billion in January to finance its pension contribution, which led Moody’s and S&P to cut their ratings to the second-lowest of any state.

Uh oh for banks!

In a report published this month, Moody's Investors Service Inc. said that private mortgage insurers had rejected 20% to 25% of claims in recent quarters, compared with a long-term average of about 7%.

What this means is that loans that lenders have on their books which have defaulted and have not been written down because the lenders feels secure in the value because they have purchased mortgage insurance from an insurer like MGIC are really not properly valued. If the rejections are upheld, the lenders are going to have to write down more loans.

the state of the world of investing today

"a cynic knows the price of everything and the value of nothing" anonymous

I was a member of a fraternity at USC

Wall Street Bonuses??? Watch the 60 Minutes interview with Michael Lewis

click here

Investing Advice from a real pro

"The world is a lot different now. Nobody with any brains buys an asset based on what it's done. All intelligent investors buy for the future." Bill Fleckenstein

Never plan to be on time

Always plan to be early. Late folks tend to have an aversion to waiting. They try to time their arrivals to the minute. If the drive to work takes 20 minutes and it’s 22 minutes before 9:00, the late person, rather than leaving the house, will continue reading the paper or cleaning the breakfast dishes until exactly 8:40. Of course, this kind of split-second time management rarely works.

The end of ignorance is coming

During a recent interview with Charlie Rose, Intel CEO Paul Otellini had some amazing comments on the future of computing. He also said that within 5 years everything is going to be on every device; you'll be able to access it all from your car, your phone, your personal computer, your TV. To which Rose asked, "What's going to become obsolete?" Otellini responded, "Ignorance."

The problem with Greece, Germany and California

It's all about fertility and we have a developing problem too. The United States has a fertility rate of around 2.1, or just over two kids per couple (our politicians have done a really good job of mortgaging our kids future for them).

Greece has a fertility rate of about 1.3: 10 grandparents have six kids have four grandkids - i.e., the family tree is upside down. Demographers call 1.3 "lowest-low" fertility - the point from which no society has ever recovered. And compared to Spain and Italy, Greece has the least worst fertility rate in Mediterranean Europe.

read the whole story here

What were the real losses at Madoff??

By the end of his multi-decade fraudulent run, the final account statements (November 30 2008) issued to all his “clients” totaled the sum of $73.1 billion dollars. The people conned by Madoff believed they were worth a collective $65 billion dollars more than their accounts were worth. The initial amount of cash put up was $20 billion dollars, beginning in the early 1960s and continuously from there forward.

The bankruptcy court in this case has made the basic determination that the losses were ONLY the cash that was initially given to Madoff & Co. The extra $45 billion was a fictitious part of Madoff’s fraud. Therefore, it represents funds that were not actual investment losses, and are not covered by SIPIC insurance. So there . . .

The largest Tsunami ever . . .

Where was the largest tsunami in history recorded?

a. India

b. Philippines

c. Chile

d. Japan

In 1971 a wall of water 278 feet (84.7 meters) high surged past Ishigaki Island, Japan. It moved a 750-block of coral 1.5 miles (2.4 kilometers) closer to shore but did little other damage.

a comment from Buffet

“At 86 and 79, Charlie and I remain lucky beyond our dreams. We were born in America; had terrific parents who saw that we got good educations; have enjoyed wonderful families and great health; and came equipped with a “business” gene that allows us to prosper in a manner hugely disproportionate to that experienced by many people who contribute as much or more to our society’s well-being. Moreover, we have long had jobs that we love, in which we are helped in countless ways by talented and cheerful associates. Indeed, over the years, our work has become ever more fascinating; no wonder we tap-dance to work. If pushed, we would gladly pay substantial sums to have our jobs (but don’t tell the Comp Committee).”

Even auto repair businesses are getting hammered

an anecdotal story from a blog I read . . . . . "My 16 year old daughter recently decided to see how fast she can drive on ice in her brand new car and learned a life long lesson. I took the vehicle to a local automotive repair facility that is professionally run and a very large facility. I spoke with the owner at length and she told me business was down 33% over the last 12 months. She thought her business was recession proof but that is not the case with this latest recession. She has been in business for over a decade and has never had a down year. The trend is for people to take the insurance money and not repair their cars. She told me to look around and notice how many dinged up cars are on the road these days. She also noticed a major trend towards $1000 deductibles versus $500 in order to save premiums. She really hoped things would turn around because her margins were down to 9% and asked what I thought. I didn't have the heart to tell her what I thought. Good news is someone backed into my car last night so I'll be giving her more business."

Are the Greeks losing it?

"Greek opposition lawmakers said on Thursday that Germans should pay reparations for their World War Two occupation of Greece before criticizing the country over its yawning fiscal deficits.

"How does Germany have the cheek to denounce us over our finances when it has still not paid compensation for Greece's war victims?" Margaritis Tzimas, of the main opposition New Democracy party, told parliament."

This was during a debate in the Greek parliament on how to handle the Greek debt. And it was echoed by both the left and right political parties. Somehow they forgot about the German government paying 115 million deutschmarks in 1960, not a small sum back then. It seems that many Greek politicians are still in the denial stage of dealing with this crisis.

The important quote from Tiger . . .

“I felt that I had worked hard my entire life and deserved to enjoy all the temptations around me. I felt I was entitled. Thanks to money and fame, I didn’t have to go far to find them.”

Actions speak louder than words

“I cannot hear what you are saying because what you are doing is speaking so loudly.”

Ralph Waldo Emerson

Driving Safely???

The Highway Loss Data Institute data released in January is a study collected before-and- after crash rates in California, Connecticut, New York, and the District of Columbia, all of which ban the use of cell phones while driving. It also compared crash rates in nearby states without such bans. The data showed no significant changes after the bans were in effect, and no significant changes in states without the bans.
There are several possible explanations for these results, besides the obvious possibility that there is no connection between talking on a phone and driver attentiveness to driving. First, the bans may not be enforced very well, or at all. Second, there may be a ramp-up period before the word gets around that you can be penalized for using a phone while driving. But the study does raise concerns about the broader issue of driver distractions—and more of those are on the way.
Far more likely to cause accidents is texting while driving, given that most people need to look at their device while doing so. Nineteen states plus the District of Columbia and Guam now ban texting while driving—but those bans may show equally little effect if it turns out that enforcement is so difficult or spotty as to have practically no impact (as may well be he case for the cell phone use study).
Beyond texting is the growing proliferation of in-car devices to further distract drivers from keeping their cars in safe operation. Bill Snyder, in Computerworld (Jan. 25th) reported from the Consumer Electronics Show about “a new generation of devices that bring email, the Internet, and digital entertainment into our cars.” There were 380 exhibitors showing items such as mobile TV and high-speed Internet access for cars, some pitched to eager car manufacturers and others aimed at individuals, as after-market add-ons to their cars. In his article, “Dear Silicon Valley: Stay Out of My Car,” Snyder quotes University of Utah psychology professor David Strayer, as follows: “Listening to a short text message is probably okay. But trying to pay attention to a complex email is a bad idea; it overloads the driver.” Strayer’s research has found that only 2.5% of us are the kind of “super-taskers” who can carry out multiple complex tasks at the same time.

Gold

Today, IMF made a splash by announcing plans to sell the remaining 191 tons (about $7 billion' worth) of its gold.

Grubonics - Uppatacious

Uppatacious is a word Bill uses to describe someone who is way too found of himself and doesn't deserve to be that conceited. The person also does things to try to impress others for the sake of it and the behavior is obnoxious.

Is The FDIC Killing Short Sales?

Unbelievable true story about what the FDIC is doing with foreclosures and why it's costing us a fortune and enabling others to make fortunes. Click here

Super Bowls betting results

Each year, my friend Phil Norton and I bet as many of the Las Vegas betting options as we can on the Super Bowl football game. They number as many as 80 different bets from coin toss to most average passing yards by team to first play of game to most penalty yards, etc. We've been doing this for 20 years. This year there were 62 bets, 10 were draws and I won 27 and Phil won 25. This year we bet 50 cents on each wager so I won $1.00 . . . can't wait for the check to arrive. Oh yeah, I won't cash the check, that's the way we do it every year.

Grubonics

Yesterday I invented the word "Grubonics" to describe the style of speech that my friend and craftsman, Bill Gruber uses. We've been working together the last week on a couple of home improvement projects and just to listen to him is fun and educational and "rich". Anyone who's had Bill in their company for an hour or more knows what I'm talking about. I'll post a few Gruberisms soon.

Whoa is the Democrat who cannot accept health reform is lost

If there is a lesson in the health insurance reform bill's collapse, and the ensuing anguish from disheartened Democrats, it is that those who put their faith in politics will most likely find that what they get in return is, in fact, more politics. So for those ailing Democrats whose belief in this bill has shaken their faith in the power of politics to produce political change, well, grief is a terrible thing, but as any therapist will say, it's never too late to get help.

Morning Sunrise photo by Craig B. Kincaid

Yesterday morning I woke up and saw the sunrise, grabbed my camera and took this picture from my dock.

Ever want to learn how to tie a truckers hitch knot?

This is a great site for learning about all kinds of knots . . . . click here

Clickstream

Find out about this really interesting data set click here

Chef's Holidays 2010 at the Ahwanhee Hotel

Each year in Yosemite at the Ahwanhee they put on a top chef's demonstration of fine cooking, tour of the kitchen and culminating with a banquet in the Great Dining Hall. We stayed at the Lodge at Yosemite where we had snow and rain showers most of the time but great visuals except Half Dome was conspicuously absent. My friend Rob Davidson said that they had taken down for repairs. click here for a look at the Chef's Holidays.

The Most Famous Person

One day, a kindergarten teacher said to the class of 5-year-olds, "I'll give $2 to the child who can tell me who the most famous man who ever lived was."

An Irish boy put his hand up and said, "It was St. Patrick."

The teacher said, "Sorry Sean, that's not correct."

Then a Scottish boy put his hand up and said, "It was St. Andrew."

The teacher replied, "I'm sorry, Hamish, that's not right either."

Finally, a Jewish boy raised his hand and said, "It was Jesus Christ."

The teacher said, "That's absolutely right, Marvin, come up here and I'll give you the $2."

As the teacher was giving Marvin his money, she said, "You know, Marvin, since you're Jewish, I was very surprised that you said Jesus Christ."

Marvin replied, "Yeah. In my heart I knew it was Moses, but business is business!"

Kurzweil part two

Kurzweil has now written what may be his opus, "The Singularity is Near." If you are at all interested in what the future might hold, and are not afraid to get out of your box, you should get this book and read it. What is the singularity? Kurzweil suggests it is a future period in which technological progress becomes so rapid that it radically transforms humankind. The difference between human and our machines becomes less and less as we adapt to an increasingly technological civilization. Increasingly, out nanotech starts to inhabit our bodies. "To picture the singularity, imagine computers trillions of times smarter than Newton, Einstein and Edison inventing new technologies while continually enhancing their own abilities. Kurzweil argues that the Singularity will occur around 2045."

Ray Kurzweil

Ray Kurzweil is perhaps the primary spokesman of our generation documenting the change in the pace of technology. Some of that change he has personally been responsible for. He is the inventor of speech recognition, scanners, music synthesizers and many other technical marvels. He is a certifiable genius in multiple fields. You can learn more about him by going to his web site click here

What's the true story on Chinese individual income?

here is an excerpt from the Seeking Alpha blog challenging Jim Chanos assertion that China is in a bubble about to burst . . .

"If anything, incomes are grossly under reported in China. A simple look at how accounting works will show why. Whereas in the U.S. individuals must report their income to the Internal Revenue Service every year, in China all individual tax is reported and paid for by companies, except for that of high earners. Many Chinese companies limit the tax they pay by reporting low salaries and then paying their employees higher amounts while accounting for the difference as business expenses like phone bills. The employees are happy because they make every bit as much as they were promised, and the companies are pleased to lower their tax exposure.

Also, many companies pay for housing and cars for their employees, a holdover from the old system of state-run businesses. Most Western economists don't count those expenses as income, but they should. Deceptive accounting of income is so widespread that the government has announced plans to tax some business expenses in state-run enterprises--the kinds of expenses that let executives pay taxes on earnings of $300 a month while living in multimillion-dollar homes and driving Mercedes." to read the whole thing click here

The Challengers

Here's the back side of The Challengers LP.

The Challengers

Along with the Beachboys, The Challengers were a top So Cal surf band. I recently found my only LP of the band and here's the cover. Check back tomorrow after I post the backside with liner notes by Rick Griffin and Murphy image (thanks to a reader who corrected me on Murphy, he wasn't Murph the Surf)

Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities

Ever wonder who and how much foreign countries own US debt obligations??? Yeah, I know you've wondered . . . well, click here and find out from the Treasury Dept directly.

great body boarding video on Posterous via Vimeo

I love the Posterous site, not only do I have one but I subscribe to several. Mine is here.

But the body boarding video is here on Vimeo but here on Posterous-Reflection of Me site.

Video - 48 Hour Jam in Bakersfield

Enjoy a quick look at what went on during the weekend where bluegrass pickers gathered to do nothing but enjoy each other's company and pick!

Successful Big Family Party 14 or more

Lots of space, so everyone can feel free to stretch out for a break if the need/want to.

A little of what everyone has at home : cut meats in the frig, a keg of beer, a lot of good wine and malted whiskies, mementos of those in attendance or relatives, an environment where everyone feels at ease, good food, close and good accommodations, something to familiarize everyone with the local area : parks, downtown, beaches, hiking trails and walks, parks, golf, surfing, etc.

Mark Twain on the newspaper

"If you don't read the newspaper you're not informed; if you read the newspaper you're misinformed."

Mark Twain

Still lot's of debt - too much to get the economy moving

"With all of the talk of the difficult borrowing environment and de-leveraging, very little debt is actually gone, despite massive write-offs by banks," Andy Matthes, portfolio manager at Matthes Capital, wrote in a recent letter to investors, a copy of which was obtained by MarketWatch. Most of this debt mountain is still tied to the fragile, government-supported housing market. At the peak of the real estate boom in 2006, U.S. households owed $9.8 trillion in mortgage debt. By the end of September, that had climbed to $10.3 billion.

Such high debt levels leave households with less cash available to spend on other things. With consumers typically accounting for two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, this situation should dent economic growth. However, personal consumption currently makes up more than 70% of GDP, well above the average of 66% since 1929, according to Matthes.

Consumption has likely remained high because of government transfer payments, which help people who have fallen on hard times through the social welfare system.