Export/Import Distortion Data predicts . .

From ContraryInvestor.com I found the following interesting information . . .

One of the largest factors opening up a record trade chasm in November was a very sharp drop in US exports. Real goods exports dropped 4%. That's one of the four top monthly percentage drops in exports in the last eight years. And what we are experiencing is a plainly noticeable dichotomy in the year over year rate of change between import and export growth. History tells us that these rate of change numbers move in relative directional similarity. They are reflective of the rhythm of the global economy. For now, we're deviating from that historical experience. If history is to hold true, either the rate of change in US export growth should be picking up quite smartly ahead, or the rate of change in import growth is about to fall meaningfully. If we don't see this type of reconciliation ahead, it will be a direct sign that global trade and capital flow imbalances of the moment are moving to a new and higher level of "distortion".What the chart above may also be telling us, despite headline commentary to the contrary, is that the foreign economies are slowing meaningfully. And resultantly, despite a much lower dollar, their demand for US exports is waning. You may know that 2004 experienced the largest one year inflow to foreign focused equity mutual funds in US history. Given the track record of the public in terms of piling into an asset class "at the top", it's a warning sign regarding the foreign equity markets and economies near term.