Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Stedman on Thompson

This is from a story by Ralph Stedman on Hunter Thompson . . . . . LOL

In 1974 we went to Zaire to cover the "Rumble in the Jungle" between George Foreman and Muhammad Ali for Rolling Stone magazine. Rolling Stone publisher Jan Wenner called it "the biggest, fucked-up journalistic adventure in the history of journalism". Hunter never delivered the story and the art director didn't like my drawings. Hunter sold our fight tickets to buy drugs or something, and told me: "If you think I've come all this way to watch two niggers beat the shit out of each other, you've got another think coming." This wasn't a racist remark. It was gonzo. He said it to be provocative. Then he snuck off to the pool with the whisky and a big bag of grass.

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

Technical Analysis as a tool

News last week that Smith Barney closed its entire technical analysis department provided some good fodder for discussions about the value of technical analysis. After all, if TA is such a worthwhile way of predicting the movement of stocks, why would Smith Barney dump it just to save a few nickels?
I seriously doubt that there is now no one at Smith Barney using technical analysis. I suspect that the move has more to do with eliminating redundancy than it does with concluding that it isn't a worthwhile pursuit. Even the most fundamentally inclined stock-picker tends to use rudimentary forms of TA even if its just to manage positions. Technical analysis is so integral to the stock-picking decision, it probably doesn't make sense to separate it into a different department.
Stock-pickers, fund managers and analysts use an amalgamation of methods to arrive at their decisions, and many probably prefer to do their own technical work. Many folks, including me, believe that technical analysis is more an art than a science. There is a lot of subjectivity in its use, and it is not the sort of thing you can easily delegate to someone else.
An important thing to remember about TA is that it doesn't have to be a good predictive tool for it to have value. One of the key benefits of using TA is that it provides a very logical framework in which to implement a money management system. TA is essential if you desire to cut losses quickly and let winners run. Without it you end up acting in an arbitrary manner.
The value of technical analysis as a money management tool is seldom acknowledged by market commentators. A basic understanding of TA principles and how they relate to money management can enhance your investment results nicely.

Monday, February 21, 2005

Hunter Thompson's Passing

Woody Creek's most famous crazed citizen has passed. He is credited creating "gonzo journalism" a style of writing in which the writer makes himself an essential compnent of the story. Fear and Lothing in Las Vegas is a classic . . . the movie didn't do it justice although Johnny Depp and Benecio del Toro were fantastic.
My favorite story is related by my friend Penny Colburn who dated Bill Noonan, one of Hunter's best friends back in the 60's. Hunter Thompason ran for Pitkin County Sheriff in 1968 and created quite a stir with wild promises and recieved some serious threats during the campaign (he lost). Bill Noonan ran for Country Coroner during the same campaign.
I wondered why would Bill run for Coroner? This was my first lesson in civics . . . . The Coroner is the only official who can arrest the Sheriff. This is true everywhere and there you have it.

Friday, February 18, 2005

US Income Distribution

According to most recent government statistics, the population of the United States is 295,494,880. But according to another report, the number of Americans earning income is 203,400,000. I'm not sure if this is a number that represents individual tax returns or a factor imputed from some other source but for sake of argument, let's assume it's based on individual tax returns. Once again, using the same data, the report shows that the percentage of Americans earning more than $50,000 (and I'm assuming this is adjusted gross income) is 19%. Those earning more than $90,000 or more is 5.5%.

Thursday, February 17, 2005

Export/Import Distortion Data predicts . .

From ContraryInvestor.com I found the following interesting information . . .

One of the largest factors opening up a record trade chasm in November was a very sharp drop in US exports. Real goods exports dropped 4%. That's one of the four top monthly percentage drops in exports in the last eight years. And what we are experiencing is a plainly noticeable dichotomy in the year over year rate of change between import and export growth. History tells us that these rate of change numbers move in relative directional similarity. They are reflective of the rhythm of the global economy. For now, we're deviating from that historical experience. If history is to hold true, either the rate of change in US export growth should be picking up quite smartly ahead, or the rate of change in import growth is about to fall meaningfully. If we don't see this type of reconciliation ahead, it will be a direct sign that global trade and capital flow imbalances of the moment are moving to a new and higher level of "distortion".What the chart above may also be telling us, despite headline commentary to the contrary, is that the foreign economies are slowing meaningfully. And resultantly, despite a much lower dollar, their demand for US exports is waning. You may know that 2004 experienced the largest one year inflow to foreign focused equity mutual funds in US history. Given the track record of the public in terms of piling into an asset class "at the top", it's a warning sign regarding the foreign equity markets and economies near term.

Wednesday, February 16, 2005

Calif State Pension Benefits

In a very good letter to the editor this morning, Jim Bock writes . . . "The reason state, county, local and school governments are struggling to come up with funds to pay their share of worker pension costs has nothing to do with the actual pension benefits. Instead, it has everything to do with the fact that through the years when that stock market flourished, the employing agencies were not required to make their full contributions to CaPERS. Rather than saving those funds in case the stockmarket caused a problem, they felt it was prudent to spend that money elsewhere.
Had the agencies been more responsible and planned for what was inevitable, they would not be complaining about having to pay the costs associated with retirements. They caused the problems now the uneducated governor is trying his best to saddle the blame on the employees who have actually paid more into their retirement over the last 20 years than the agencies who are now complaining about being broke.
This is what happens when elected people are not money-conscious and spend money that they should be saving."

my opinion is that all retirement systems should switch to defined contribution plans and move away from defined benefit plans

Dead on Parole

I get so many great pieces just from the Sac Bee Op-Ed page . . . . here's one from today's . . . . I've taken the liberty to edit out a few sentences which aren't pertinent.

Twenty-five days after prison inmate Daniel Provencio was declared brain dead, the California Department of Corrections finally ended round-the-clock guarding and released the body to his family. That's the good news. But it occurred only after a bizarre precedent: The department got the Board of Prison Terms to parole the dead man. Normally, when a prisoner dies in Department of Corrections custody, the body goes first to the county coroner, then to the family.

In this case, however, public confusion over whether brain dead means "dead" or "in a coma" led to extremely odd conduct. Brain dead means dead - the complete, permanent, irreversible cessation of brain activity. The Department of Corrections did the family and the public a disservice in letting that confusion drag on far too long.

Members of Provencio's family told the media that doctors declared him brain dead the morning of Jan. 20. Yet the Department of Corrections continued to treat Provencio as alive when he was dead, shackling him by the ankles to his hospital bed and guarding him around the clock. The director of corrections finally ordered the shackles removed Feb. 4. But department spokesmen continued to describe Provencio as in such a "critical medical state" that they were having a difficult time finding a nursing home for him, as if Provencio were still alive. One spokesman said, "We've had no takers." That's not surprising. Not many nursing homes take dead people as patients.

We haven't seen the end of this bizarre saga.

Monday, February 14, 2005

Steve Goodman "lives"

I notice that the Grammy for "Spoken Word Album for Children" went to THE TRAIN THEY CALL NEW ORLEANS by Tom Chapin, which was written 30 years ago by Steve Goodman. Goodman was one of the best songwriters ever and we lost him 10 years ago to cancer and he's still missed.

Sunday, February 13, 2005

Rare Wisconsin Quarter discovered

The numismatic world is all abuze about the latest US Mint error, the Wisconsin Commerative Quarter minted in 2004 bears the image of a cow, a wheel of cheese and a half-husked ear of corn. There is something peculiar about the cheese head coins . . . there are variations in the placement of leaves surrounding the coin's ear of corn. Collectors have identified two varieties. There is a an offer by several Arizona dealers for as much as $1499 for a perfect specimen.

Wednesday, February 09, 2005

from Pete MacEntergart at the 10 Spot on Sir Paul

"The FCC received two complaints about Paul McCartney's halftime performance, both saying they were "bored." That compares to more than 500,000 complaints last year over Janet Jackson's exposed breast. Analysts say the pair complaining about Sir Paul were likely just smartmouth kids." PE at the 10 Spot

I thought it was interesting that he sang the lyric in GET BACK "sweet Loretta modern, thought she was a woman but she was another man" . . . . no one seemed to notice.

Friday, February 04, 2005

Thoughts from the backlines

One of my oldest friends just emailed me. he's on a rant now . . . .

CK - I'm onto another subject, stop voice mail it takes too long to listen to rhetoric that doesn't pertain to a subject at hand.  This stuff about recording for quality control is the most stupid thing I've ever heard.  If quality were recognized by a said company they wouldn't have voice mail in the first place.  

On a communication roll, stop with web sites that require a log-on to contact a company!  What an incredible waste of time.  We are going backwards rather than forward.  Technology is slower than what we had forty years ago.  Even an operator on the phone coupled with information is light years behind what we had forty plus years ago.

I can't take it anymore! BP

(I won't reveal his name as he's just too powerful in State government to be exposed but to say the least . . . . he has Arnold's ear.)

Wednesday, February 02, 2005

Strange Market Activity in Delta and Ebay

Something interesting occurred about a week ago.  In a single day, Delta airlines posted a record lost of $5.2 billion dollars, which amounted to $47 per share, for the last quarter of 2004.  That was a record loss for the airlines.   What happened to the stock?  It lost 9.8% of its share value to close at $5.37, it fell further to bottom out at $4.41.  And as of today, it’s gained back much of that loss to close at $5.67. 

Now, to give you some contrast.   On the same day that Delta announced record losses, another company announced record profits.  That company grew its profits about 44% from the previous quarter.  However, it did one thing wrong – it missed the analyst’s expectations by 1 cent – the first time it had ever done that.  What happened?  The stock plunged 20% during the next 24 hrs losing $19.72 and it’s gone even lower since that time to close today at 78.80 a 26% shallacking.  The stock with record earnings was Ebay. Be careful out there.

California Can't Account for Federal Funds at Dept of Health

Over the last 3 years, the state Department of Health Services has received about $100 million in federal funds to fight bioterrism and officials can't seem to account for it. On a scale from 1 - 10, California received a mediocre 5 for its readiness in a report last month by the nonpartisan Trust for America's Health. Only five states scored worse. Where has the money gone? DHS officials can't seem to say. In June, the Rand Corporation issued a harsh critique of whether California could respond to a bio-attack.

This report came from the Sacramento Bee.

Housing Bubble or Not

Today I noted with great interest that CALPERS has decided that it's time to "cash in on real estate profits". They are liquidating 207 industrial buildings, 97 shopping centers and 22 office properties. We're talking some massive selling. The other side of the coin is that all of the property is being gobbled up by investors dying to get into real estate. Now this doesn't having anything to do with housing but it is an interesting occurrence.

Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Hispanic

I read in an op-ed piece by Peter Schrag that "The term hispanic", as the essayist Richard Rodriques points out, is rarely used anywhere other than this country. It was invented as an official category by the Nixon administration.

I didn't know that !

Saturday, January 29, 2005

NO PENSIONS FOR LEGISLATORS

just saw this at Weintraub's blog . . .

"I don't know if it's an organized letter-writing campaign or just political amnesia, but I've received a dozen or more emails suggesting I advocate repeal of legislators' pensions before we touch the retirement benefits of state workers. Most of you know this, but for those who don't: California legislators lost their pensions in 1990, when voters approved term limits. Prop. 140, in addition to capping service in the Assembly at three terms and in the Senate at two terms, cut the Legislature's budget and banned lawmakers from receiving pensions."

Wednesday, January 26, 2005

$ 5 Billion !!!

Yes, that's what the Bush administration says it needs to build a new embassy in Baghdad, Iraq. $5 billion to build an embassy. That's amazing.

Monday, January 24, 2005

Prison Industry Authority of California

PIA is one of my customers. This is a nice profile of the new guy in charge . . . from the Sac Bee

Prison factory chief plans a turnaround


Matt Powers could be comfortably retired, making fishing trips to his family's cabin in Alaska and collecting his deputy police chief pension from the city of Sacramento. But that would be out of character for the man close friends endearingly call "Don Quixote." Instead, Powers is standing amid the din of a dozen license-plate stamping machines at Folsom State Prison's factory, straining to carry on a conversation with two inmates.

The enigmatic former cop is so passionate about his belief in the value of good vocational training for inmates that he's throwing his considerable energy into reforming an icon of California's troubled prison system - its Prison Industry Authority.

As the prison authority's general manager since last summer, Powers inherited a $162 million industrial venture that employs more than 5,700 inmates in 22 California prisons. "Matt is energetic and committed," said Department of Corrections Director Jeanne Woodford. "(He) understands public safety must include an opportunity for offenders to change."

His challenge will be to turn around an agency that for more than a decade has been criticized for overpricing its goods and being unresponsive to customers.

The Prison Industry Authority was created in 1982 by legislators who gave it the dual goals of preparing inmates for the work force in hopes of reducing recidivism and helping cut down prison costs.

The PIA also has a list of state agencies that are required to buy its products unless they can demonstrate why they must buy from the private sector.

Initially, the prison authority was hailed as a national model. But by the following decade, it had fallen from glory and since has been the subject of criticism by various oversight agencies.

A 1993 Little Hoover Commission report charged that the PIA was "holding state departments hostage to high prices and delayed deliveries."

Three years later, the Legislative Analyst's Office reported that while the PIA had improved its troubled financial status, it did so "at the expense of other legislative purposes." It urged PIA to set goals of becoming financially self-sufficient and improving inmate employability.

A 1996 state auditor's report said more than half the PIA's goods cost more than they would in the private sector and took too long to make and deliver.

Since 2000, the agency has labored under a series of interim managers who have tried to satisfy the dual - and conflicting - requirements of running a competitive business while churning as many inmates as possible through job training.

The criticisms have continued. In August, when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger unveiled his California Performance Review, he featured a single $1,620 desk made by PIA prisoners alongside a full set of similarly priced office furniture.

Last month, the state auditor released a new report on the PIA, crediting it with some minor reforms and competitive prices, but faulting it for having no way to measure its own successes and no clear mission.

If anyone can turn the troubled agency around, Powers' supporters say he's the man for the job. "Matt really has a passion for seeing people who end up in jail or prison as having a lot of human potential," said Tim Brown, executive director of Loaves and Fishes and a former collaborator with Powers on the city-county board on homelessness. "When I heard he was taking on PIA, I thought, 'That's a really great fit.' ... He really sees the capacity for rehabilitation." Powers is a study in contrasts.

"He wears Birkenstocks and drives a Volvo and he's a cop," said Undersheriff John McGinness, a longtime colleague. "He's not the stereotypical anything."

The grandson of a San Quentin inmate, Powers grew up in a tough, poor San Francisco neighborhood. He talks admiringly of a hand-carved stagecoach model that his grandmother bought from the prison inmates' shop. But he was determined not to follow the same path. During his 23 years at the Police Department, he was a Special Weapons and Tactics team sergeant and among the first local police officers to earn a master's degree in science in management. Colleagues teased him for being such a straight arrow.

"He looks like he should be a college professor," said Sacramento Police Chief Albert Nájera, who was one of Powers' first training officers and remains a friend. "But appearances belie Matt; he is one tough individual."

After retiring from the Police Department in 2000, he spent two years at Raley's Inc. as vice president for strategic planning and public affairs. He also teaches emergency services management courses at California State University, Long Beach.

What sets Powers apart from his colleagues most is his earnest, academic approach to solving criminal problems. In the mid-1990s, Powers led a coalition of police officers, neighborhood activists, and other officials in a concerted effort to rid Alkali Flat of its entrenched gang problem.

He began by researching successful community-oriented policing practices in Boston, a well-received halfway house in Manhattan and the history of Alkali Flat's problem before pulling together his team to make a plan of action.

"He is, in law enforcement, a Renaissance man," said Powers' longtime colleague and friend Steve Harrold, a prosecutor who oversees the career criminal unit at the Sacramento County District Attorney's Office. "He's very well-read, and a very strategic person." Over the past several months, Powers has buried himself in research about successful inmate manufacturing programs, touting successes in other states and looking for new markets. His vision of success for the PIA is to increase the number of inmates he prepares for the work force. To do that, he must grow the business. But first, he must corral his team into writing a strategic plan.

"Matt doesn't need to do this," McGinness said. "He's a pretty popular lecturer. He could make a decent living doing just that. This is a labor of love for him. He's doing it for all the right reasons."

Thursday, January 20, 2005

Inauguration Day

I was at the gym on the treadmill reading George Washington's biography this morning and looked up to see Barbara Bush on TV. What must it be like to be a woman who is married to a President and mother of one?? Amazing isn't it?

Here's a fun link to an inauguration quiz . . . http://www.trumanlibrary.org/quiz/
I think it's interesting that this quiz is coming from the Truman Library . . . whatever?

Wednesday, January 19, 2005

Joining the Senior Set

My friend and co-conspirator in "Arnold's The One" had an op-ed piece published in the LA Times last Saturday . . . . .

VOICES / A FORUM FOR COMMUNITY ISSUES 1/15/05
There's a Payoff in Joining the Senior Set By Denny Freidenrich

I did it. After waiting for more than a year, I finally bit the bullet. I did what millions of others nobly have done before me: I traded in my baby boomer status for a discounted ticket at the movies. Not any discount, mind you, a senior citizen discount.

You got that right. A senior citizen discount. When I actually got up the nerve to ask for one, my 10-year-old daughter said, "Dad, you really are old." Truth be known, she didn't just say it. She shouted it so everyone in line could hear.

But I didn't care. I had walked up to the line and crossed over it like a proud soldier. After years of marching, I was ready to receive my just reward. So I asked for it. I didn't really think much about it on the way to the movies — at least not consciously. Subconsciously, I suspect I'd been thinking about it for a long time. That's because my two older brothers, both of whom are in their mid-60s, have been telling me stories about their experiences for years.

Considering I'm a boomer from the "Sky King" days, it probably is fair to say that I, and my grade school classmates, have looked time straight in the eye — and have begun to blink just a bit. My first real clue came not long ago when my girlfriend from the ninth grade called to tell me she is now a grandmother. "A grandmother? How's that possible?" I asked. She laughed and told me to brace myself because it probably was going to happen to me someday.

If you really want to know, I am ready. My hair is gray around the temples; I have added a few pounds around my middle; I wear bifocals; and I fret about my retirement savings. My wife often complains that my "preoccupation" with aging is like waiting for a train wreck. That's easy for her to say. She isn't the one who drops loopy fly balls in the outfield or falls off the surfboard for no apparent reason. No, my reactions aren't what they used to be. Still, I do react to the concept of growing
o-l-d.

Not that old is bad. But old in this nation does tend to relegate one to a place called obscurity. Of all the new clothes, gizmos and gifts I recently received, the only present I really needed this year I actually gave to myself. It wasn't under the Christmas tree. I found it at the mall, or more accurately, at the movie theater box office.

It was the realization that, after all these years, I truly am comfortable with the notion that I'm not going to be forever young. I have reached a certain stage in life where it not only is OK, it actually is great to be older — and wiser.